Friday, January 2, 2009

Oliver Perez 2009

Oliver Perez is supposedly asking teams for a five year contract worth $70 million. That a number of teams are considering offering him something close to this just blows my mind. Going into 2009, this is a guy who hasn't had any xFIP below 4.65 since 2004. He combines wildness (4.8 BB/9 in 2008) with extreme flyball tendencies (between 30.1% and 35.7% every year since 2004). He doesn't even have an absurdly high strikeout rate anymore...he hasn't broken 9.0 for a season since 2004. Put him in a better hitters' park, and this could be a real disaster. Either way, someone is going to be very, very disappointed in a year or two. I'm not saying Oliver Perez is a bad pitcher, but he certainly isn't a very good one.

1 comment:

Dave said...

Can you explain the difference between FIP and xFIP? Sadly I'm not sure I know the difference. Thanks!