Carlos Zambrano 2009

If you want to find the person in any fantasy baseball draft who has the opposite philosphy from me when it comes to evaluating pitchers, just see who drafts Carlos Zambrano this year. I've always considered Zambrano slightly overrated, and the past two years he's showed an alarming decline in his strikeout rate from 8.9 in 2006 to 6.3 in 2008. Until he turns that around, I'm assuming that his arm is damaged goods, and that he not only won't pitch well but is at high risk of a major arm injury. Coupled with that high risk of not performing to expectations is the fact that he's generally drafted ahead of guys like Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw, who is already his equal and has a much higher upside. Then consider the very unfavorable park that Zambrano plays in. All in all, not a very enticing combination.