Friday, January 9, 2009

Jose Reyes 2009

Last season Jose Reyes rebounded from a somewhat subpar 2007 to post excellent numbers, more or less matching his 2006 performance. In traditional formats, he is considered a top five draft pick by most people.

I mentioned in the John Maine post this morning that Citi Field is likely to play as an extreme pitcher's park. In particular it is almost certainly going to depress home runs by a substantial amount. It may partially compensate for that by increasing the number of triples hit, due to the large playing field, the odd configuration of the outfield wall, and the outfield deck overhang. So the one Mets hitter who I would not necessarily avoid in 2009 is Jose Reyes. The key to what the park is likely to do to his value is in how your league scoring works. In most daily contest leagues (and also in Rotohog), a triple is worth only slightly less than a home run, so Reyes won't be hurt at all by the park. However, in traditional 5X5 and especially 4X4 leagues, he's going to take a slight hit in value...although still far less than the other Mets' stars.

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