Justin Upton 2009

All you need to know about Justin Upton is that in 2007 he excelled at AA at 19 years old, and in 2008 he held is own in the Major Leagues at 20 years old. Upton is a future star. He's also an excellent player to illustrate the difference in how I look at promising young hitters and promising young pitchers. My posts on David Price generated a lot of discussion because I'm taking a 'wait and see' approach on Price. That won't be the case with Upton. I consider it virtually certain that he'll improve dramatically over the next few years, and very likely that he'll take a big step forward this season. That said, while a fast start for Price would convince me that he's already improved and would change my 2009 projections for him, a fast start by Upton wouldn't really have much impact on my already high expectations. In short, I think hitters are easier to project into the future, but pitchers are easier to evaluate true skill level in the present.