Friday, January 30, 2009

Felix Hernandez 2009

This is an important year for Felix Hernandez. His component statistics have been in a very gradual decline since he first arrived in the Major Leagues as a 19 year old. The decline has been very subtle though, and isn't sharp enough to be sure that his skills have changed at all. Of more concern is a variety of discussion that his approach has changed and his stuff isn't quite what it used to be. I'm skeptical whether there's been any real change. The guy is still putting up terrific numbers as a 22 year old in the Major Leagues, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he his 2009 statistics made a leap forward from last year's (K/9: 7.9, BB/9: 3.6, GB%: 52.1). All of those represented career worsts for Hernandez. One thing that may limit Hernandez' value somewhat is that wins could be hard to come by, with a weak lineup in Seattle, and an unresolved closer situation.


pretzels said...

would i be dumb to trade king felix for john danks in a keeper league, i just dont have good feeling on king felix---------thanks

Alex said...

pretzels - I think that would be a bad idea. I really like Danks, but don't underestimate the value of Felix's superior groundball rate. That's going to have a significant impact on his ERA over the years.

pretzels said...