Friday, April 3, 2009

Trevor Cahill 2009

With the news that Trevor Cahill is going to be the second starter in Oakland's rotation in 2009, he's suddenly become the focus of a lot of attention and analysis. Much of it has focused on the positives, as it often does with promising young pitchers. I'm here to provide a bit of a reality check. Cahill is a terrific long term prospect. He just turned 21, and he's had high strikeout rates in the minor leagues. His low home run rates allowed in the minors suggest that he may be a groundball pitcher, which would certainly be a big advantage. However, I don't think he's ready for immediate success in the majors. The highest level he's pitched at in the regular season is AA, and his strikeout and walk rate suggest that he was more lucky than good at that level. Despite 'winning' a spot in the rotation this Spring, he's struggled with his control again. If he can maintain a high groundball rate, he's got a chance of sticking in the majors, but barring some drastic improvement, I think it's going to be several years before he can be considered a solid fantasy option.

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