Matt Cain 2009

I'm sure this is going to outrage all the people who think that Matt Cain has been the victim of bad luck and bad teammates the past two years, but I've never really understood what all the fuss was about when it comes to Cain. Yes, you'd expect a player who puts up the ERA has the past two years to win more games, so to that extent the public perception is true. But he's been very luck to have such a good ERA with the component statistics he's put up. His control is mediocre (3.8 BB/9 in 2008) and he's an extreme flyball pitcher. Like any 24 year old pitcher, there's plenty of time for improvement, but right now he's a very average pitcher on a bad team. I would definitely stay away from him in 2009 unless your leaguemates agree with me and let him slide very far down in the draft.