Friday, April 24, 2009

Betting On Your Sabermetric Knowledge

Today is one of the those days that illustrate why I love daily fantasy baseball contests. The Tigers are starting Rick Porcello, who I believe would probably be a slightly above average Double A ball! A lot of people disagree with me, and think he's a potential sleeper or star in the making. Needless to say I won't be using him in any of my leagues. But the real fun is that I can 'bet' on my opinion in daily contests. Using a lot of the Royals (who are facing home in Kansas City) will give me a number of very cheap players who are priced very low, and will allow me to load up on the very best (and most expensive) players at other positions. Royals like Jacobs, Crisp, and Dejesus are all near the top of my rankings for today's game. While Porcello has been ok so far (7 Ks and just 1 BB in 12 IP) the sample size is still too small to convince me that he's gone from struggling in A ball to success in the major leagues over the offseason. One of the early lessons of Sabermetrics was that minor league statistics do have value when predicting major league performance, and I'm not ready to ignore Porcello's past until he shows good control for 4 or 5 games. If I'm right about Porcello, there's a good chance I'll be richer tomorrow than I am today.

1 comment:

Scott Berger said...

Just signed up for Draft Bug and entered the freeroll tonight under user name Magnumsb29. I had never been to that site before. Thanks for the tip!