Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Jay Bruce 2009
Like Pablo Sandoval (who I discussed yesterday), Jay Bruce shows the kind of trend we're looking for in potential star hitters - improvement as he moved up through the minor leagues, playing in leagues where he was one of the youngest players, and developing power. Bruce is already capable of hitting 30 home runs in a full Major League season, and at 22 years old he's still in the steep part of the learning curve. While his walk rate is a little lower than I like in a slugger, there's plenty of time to improve. Also his ability to hit for high average in the minor leagues suggests that he's able to compensate for the lack of walks in other ways. The only other negative I can see is that the speed he showed in the lower minor leagues (as much as 19 SB) is likely something he's never going to come close to again. Bruce's home park is a huge bonus for anyone playing in leagues where you can turn over your whole team every day. For 2009 he's likely to be very average on the road (where he's going to be in tougher parks and also have a slight away game disadvantage), but be a star at home.