Sunday, January 3, 2010

Troy Tulowitzki 2010

On the surface, it looks like 2009 was either a breakout season for Troy Tulowitzki, or possibly a fluke. However, digging into the details a little further reveals that it was more of a gradual progression from his excellent 2007 season. An injury shortened 2008 appears to be the outlier in the progression of an excellent young player. With the exception of stolen bases, Tulowitzki's 2009 numbers show very slight improvements over 2007 in most areas. That's encouraging, and I think he can be expected to have a similar season in 2010. Given that he's still only 25, there's excellent upside as well. The only area that I'd be concerned about is his steals. He's always had a low success rate, and prior to last year's 20 steals, his previous career best was 7. It appears he was given the green light without really earning it. Hopefully, he won't have that taken away from him this season. I think a line of .295 with 25 home runs and 15 steals is fairly conservative, but the there's definitely potential for better.

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