Friday, January 15, 2010

Carlos Lee 2010

Carlos Lee had a bizarre season in 2009, hitting .300 with 26 home runs and 35 doubles (in 610 at bats) yet still managing to score only 65 runs. That's quite an accomplishment...possibly only rivaled in baseball history by Brook Jacoby's remarkable 1987 season (.300, 32 HR, 69 RBI, 73 R). I usually ignore a player's ability to score runs when evaluating him for fantasy baseball, figuring that the spread from the best run scorers to the worst isn't that great. But Lee's performance last year was so extreme that I think it's worth at least asking the question - will he be able to score more in 2010? I suspect that the answer is "yes, but he'll still be below average". He's part of a bad offense, takes few walks, and isn't particularly fast anymore. That said, he clearly had some bad luck last year. Overall, Lee has been one of the more consistent performers in baseball over the past decade, but may be slightly overvalued based on where he's going in most drafts (ranked 62nd at Couchmanagers). At 33 years old, he simply doesn't have a lot of upside compared to lower ranked players such as Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Shin-Soo Choo.

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