Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Scott Kazmir 2010
Four times in five years, Scott Kazmir recorded strikeout rates of 9.81 per nine innings or higher. Then, in 2009, he struck out only 7.15 per nine innings. When a 25 year old pitcher has that kind of drop in strikeout rate, it's cause for concern...and often an indication of an underlying injury. While there's certainly a good chance that the Winter off will allow Kazmir to get over whatever his problems are, he's not someone you'll want to count on for very much in 2010. I think his current Couchmanagers.com ADP (ranked 160th) seems about right. You'll be taking a gamble. If he returns to his pre-2009 level of performance, you'll be getting a bargain. If he pitches like he did in 2009, you will have taken him slightly too early. And if his arm falls off, you won't have wasted too high a pick on him. Whether you draft him or not should depend on the extent to which you need to 'swing for the fences' to have a successful season.