Wednesday, January 27, 2010

John Smoltz 2010

The Mets are reportedly interested in signing John Smoltz for the 2010 season. If they do, that might be the smartest thing they've done in the past year. Yes, Smoltz is a 42 year old pitcher who put up a 6.35 ERA in a half season of work last year. But if you look beyond the ugly ERA, Smoltz actually pitched pretty well, striking out 8.42 per nine innings and walking only 2.08. Much of that was accomplished in the American League, which makes it even more impressive. The only warning sign is that after many years of strong groundball rates (in the 44%-49% range), Smoltz was a mediocre 39.6% in 2009. That said, Smoltz' peripheral numbers are very similar to another popular sleeper this year: Ricky Nolasco. But Smoltz will go far later (if at all) in your draft. He isn't currently listed at, which means he's not going before pick #275. I suspect that he'll start getting picked a little earlier if he signs with a team, but he should remain a bargain.

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