Friday, January 1, 2010

Joey Votto 2010

Last year, Joey Votto hit .322 with 25 home runs in just 469 at bats. I'm a little hesitant about his ability to repeat that kind of performance, because both the power and the batting average were substantially better than the Major League equivalents of his minor league numbers. At 26 years old, it's not clear whether Votto had a breakout season indicative of a new level of ability, or whether it was simply a career year. Votto's ADP at CouchManagers has him ranked 50th, which seems reasonable. It seems as though hitters are particularly hard to rank this year. I think a case could be made that for 2010, Votto isn't a lot worse than Evan Longoria (ranked 11th). On the other hand, a case could also be made that he isn't at all better than Shin-Soo Choo (ranked 85th). The relatively gradual decline in hitting talent from the early rounds to the middle rounds of drafts may make it worthwhile to pick the top pitchers earlier than most years, or to focus on players whose values benefit from position scarcity.

1 comment:

Eric said...

Agree completely on the small variation between hitters. Alos agree that filling position scarcity is the way to go given the production difference between the elite catchers or SSs isn't so far from the #s 5-20 OF, etc.