Friday, February 16, 2007
Octavio Dotel
Dotel should theoretically be fully recovered from surgery and may get first shot at KC's closer job. If he's fully healthy, he'll be a very valuable closer. Ignore the people who say he pitches better as a set up man. I actually think he's going to be an exceelent high risk/high reward late round pick because of the great upside, and the fact that you'll know whether the pick worked out very quickly. Watch his K/9 and K/BB in Spring Training. If they look more like 2004 (IP: 50.2, K:72, BB:18) he's at least a middle-tier closer. If they look more like 2005 (IP:15.1, K:16, BB:11) be somewhat concerned and only pick him with a late round pick. If they look more like 2006 (IP: 10, K:7, BB:11) don't pick him under any circumstances.
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Meh.
I have a specific strategy on closers; draft one "ace" closer, one late-rounder non-injury risk from a bad team (think Eddie Guardado or Chris Ray), and then scrounge for saves from guys who win closers' jobs mid-season.
I agree that Dotel will probably be undervalued if healthy, but I don't like it when my closers get hurt; thus, the strategy. Saves are tough enough to come by, to lose half your supply mid-season could cripple your team in that category. And keep in mind that Dotel plays for the Royals; that's probably limiting him to 30 saves best case. So unless I got him really late in the draft (i.e. last 4-5 rounds), I'd say I'd probably avoid OD.
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