Thursday, February 8, 2007

Bob Howry, Part II

Based on some comments about my discussion of Bob Howry both here and at another web site that was kind enough mention me, I thought I should revisit my discussion of Bob Howry.

First of all, I did NOT use Bob Howry as an example of how pitching in the AL is tougher than in the NL. I said that if he was a starting pitcher I would attribute his improved K/9 and K/BB in 2006 to the league change, BUT I thought that was less important for relievers. Based on that, I believe that his high K rate in 2006 is a little out of line with the trend of his past few years and may not be repeatable.

I did say that he was better in 2006 than in 2005, and based on his great ERA and WHIP in 2005 I can certainly see how that might seem like an odd statement. The truth is, I barely look at ERA and WHIP, even though those are how we're scored in fantasy baseball. I simply believe that K/9 and K/BB are much better indicators of how well the pitcher pitched, and that the other stats include a pretty large dose of luck...particularly in the case of a relief pitcher, where sample sizes are limited. For anybody who thinks I'm crazy to view things that way, let's see how my picks do during the season. In fact, I will be running some contests during the season where you can see how your own picks do compared to mine.

No comments: