Sunday, December 14, 2008

Max Scherzer 2009

I'll start my 'new' blog off with a profile of one of my favorite sleeper picks for 2009: Max Scherzer. I think this guy is going to be somewhere between pretty good and really awesome. A lot of people know he's got potential, but despite that, the only mock draft I could find so far with full results listed in an easy to read format, he was the 200th pick. That's awfully low for a guy who struck out 66 and walked only 21 in 56 innings last year. His groundball rate was 41.7%, which isn't especially awful (although not great). He was better as a starter than as a reliever. That's unusual, and probably can be explained by the fact that most of his innings as a starter were in September. If you're an optimist, that means he was getting back as the year progressed. If you're a pessimist, that means he was beating up on inferior lineups in September. I'm an optimist...although I'm also the first to admit that a REALLY thorough analysis would check the lineups he faced in those games. Regardless, it looks like Scherzer will be very effective, strike out lots of hitters, and has superstar potential. The only thing not to like is his home park. Especially in game formats that allow complete roster turnover every day, pitching in a hitter's park presents you with a dilemma. Sometimes he gets home field advantage...but in a hitter's park. Other times he might be in a pitcher's park...but will be at a disadvantage because he's on the road. He's going to be good enough that he's worth using pretty often regardless.


Anonymous said...

I can't agree more. I'm huge on this guy. I know some might laugh but I'm talking the next Tim Lincecum here. I was lucky enough to get him in my keeper league and can't wait to see what he does.

Anonymous said...

Another potential problem - violent mechanics. He's going to have trouble staying healthy (well, any pitcher is an injury risk, but Max looks more likely to be one).