Friday, December 19, 2008
Johan Santana 2009
Johan Santana is another player whose value in traditional leagues may not be the same as it is in games where you can turn your roster over on a daily basis. In a traditional league, I would steer clear of him in 2009. While there's no doubt that he's still an excellent pitcher, his declining K/9 rate is a major concern. In 2004, it was 11.7. From 2005 to 2007 it ranged from 10.0 to 10.3 every year. Last year, pitching in an easier league it declined to 8.3. Combined with reports of reduced velocity on his fastball, I'd say there's some reason to be concerned about an injury, and he certainly appears not to be the clear 'best pitcher in baseball' that he was a few years back. Assuming he's still being drafted (based on reputation) in the first few rounds of most drafts, I would keep away. At this point, I'd be inclined to pick guys like Peavy, Sabathia, and Webb ahead of him. On the other hand, if his K/9 rate bounces back early in the season and is over 10 through his first 5 or 6 starts, then by all means go ahead and use him in Rotohog, Fantasy Sports Live, and the other daily games.