Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Joel Hanrahan 2009
Joel Hanrahan is expected to close for the Washington Nationals in 2009. If he's as good as he was in 2008 (K/9: 9.9, BB/9: 4.5, GB%: 42.6%) then he should be pretty effective, and a likely bargain in the late rounds of most drafts. I'm skeptical though. This is a guy who was so bad in the majors (K/9: 6.8, BB/9: 6.0, GB%: 30.6%) in 2007 that he was one of my favorite targets for opposing hitters. His minor league numbers are very consistent with his 2007 performance (or lack thereof). So while he may have suddenly figured out how to pitch as a 26 year old, I do expect some regression. Something like a strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings and a walk rate of 4.5 per nine innings, with a groundball rate of around 40% seems reasonable. That could be good enough to get the job done as a closer, but I definitely expect him to go through some rough patches.
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Just an FYI, if you look at his numbers he also gets considerably better his second year at a new level, once he gets his feet wet and more comfortable. He also seemed to get stronger as the season went on and his outings got shorter. I expect a much better year out of Hanrahan.
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