Monday, December 15, 2008

Javier Vazquez 2009

I think Javier Vazquez is going to be terrific this year. Actually, I think Javier Vazquez will be terrific every year. I'm a sucker for great K/BB ratios. The WORST ratio of Vazquez' career was 150/60 in 198 innings in 2004. That's pretty amazing. In his worst season, he was (more or less) Chris Young. Most years he's been a lot better. I generally assume that pitchers are all going to revert to roughly the same rate of home runs per fly ball. In most cases, that's a pretty reasonable assumption, and even if we know that there is a small amount of skill in avoiding home runs on fly balls, we do fine making projections as if it was all luck. There are a few cases, such as Vazquez and Brett Myers, where we're doing so at our own risk. That said, he's already proven himself a very good pitcher with terrific K/BB rates. That's only going to get better with his move from a hitter's park in the American League to a slight pitcher's park in the National League. For those you who do futures prop bets (I don't...or at least, I haven't in the past), I'm guessing that Vazquez will be underrated enough to justify an investment in "Vazquez to win Cy Young" or whatever else is available.

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