Brad Penny in 2009 will be a player to stay away from at all costs. Not only will he meet some of the criteria...he'll meet just about all of the criteria:
-Changing leagues from NL to AL
-Going from pitchers' park to hitters' park
-Declining strikeout rate (from 7.1 in 2006 to 4.6 in 2008)
-Increasing walk rate (from 2.1 in 2005 to 3.8 in 2008)
Some people may recommend him as a 'sleeper' who is likely to rebound "if healthy", and win a lot of games because of Boston's offense. Don't be fooled. Even if he is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2006 and 2007, he's going to struggle in the much tougher American League and pitching half his games in Boston.