Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Wade Davis 2010

Wade Davis is frequently mentioned as a potential sleeper for 2010. I think that's a reasonable opinion, as long you you keep in mind the word 'potential'. He's young (24) and has always had good (but not truly exceptional) strikeout rates. I think some people are looking at his 36.1 major league innings last year (with 36 strikeouts and 13 walks) and drawing the conclusion that he may be ready to dominate immediately. That probably isn't the case. His control hasn't been terrific in the minor leagues, and unless he improves substantially (which is possible), I would expect something like 7 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.5 walks per nine innings. A solid major leaguer, but nothing special. Judging by his minor league home run rates, I assume he's not a groundball pitcher either, so I'd expect an ERA in the mid-to-high 4s. At his current MockDraftCentral ADP of 296th (79th starting pitcher), that's reasonable, but there are definitely a few better picks available later on in most drafts.

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