This guy is one of the true sleepers of 2010. I actually feel a little bit guilty writing about him, since I'm sure there are some other people out there who have him on their radar and have been keeping him secret. That said, I've found that no matter how convincing the evidence that a player should do well, a 6.27 ERA general does a good job of limiting his popularity on draft day. Add to that the fact that Paulino may have to compete for a spot in the rotation for a team with a bad offense, and it's easy to see why Paulino is not currently ranked in the Mockdraftcentral.com ADP rankings. They go down to #390, and guys like Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman, both of whom Paulino should easly outperform are ranked at least 100 spots earlier in the 290s.
So why am I so high on Paulino? For starters, he struck out 8.57 batters per nine innings. He combined that with ok control (BB/9: 3.41) and an average groundball rate of 42.2%. That's good for an xFIP of 4.10. And at 26 years old, Paulino definitely has a reasonable chance of further improvement. If you're in a deep league, Paulino will make a great late round pick, and even in shallow leagues he's someone you should keep an eye on.
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3 comments:
I saw Paulino pitch against the Giants last season. What an enigma! Dude was throwing upper 90's heat and appeared to have a sharp breaking ball, yet the Giants, a very weak hitting team, were just raking off of him. It appeared that he was giving in and throwing fastballs in the fat part of the strike zone to avoid walks. It just goes to show that no matter how bad major league hitters appear to be, if you throw any pitch inside the black, they are going to hammer it. The fastball may have been on the straight side too.
I'd probably rank Paulino higher than #390, but until/unless he gets better command, or finds some better movement on the fastball, I wouldn't count on him breaking out.
That said, he costs next to nothing, and most indicators point to a huge upside. I was using him last year and will take a chance on him for sure.
I guess it depends some on keeper status and how deep your league is. I don't expect him to be drafted in my league. I will monitor him closely and as soon as it looks like he might be turning it around, pounce. Yes, I might end up being too late, but it's not like he's the only breakout pitching candidate out there.
The odds are higher that he'll end up being a waste of roster space and/or a drag on ERA if drafted than of seeing him break out for another team.
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