Monday, March 9, 2009

Ryan Ludwick 2009

It's hard to know what to make of Ryan Ludwick in 2009. A repeat of his 2008 would make him one of the better hitters in baseball, as he hit .299 with 37 home runs, and over 100 runs and RBIs. How likely is he to repeat that kind of performance? Not very. The good news first. He hit 40 doubles, which likely indicates that the home run total wasn't a fluke. Also, he put up a similar performance in 106 at bats in AAA in 2007. Unfortunately, everything else points to this being a career year, well out of line with his ability. Playing in the minors since 1999, Ludwick always had power, but never showed the ability to hit for average (especially once adjustments are made for level of competition). Ludwick is 30 years old, so it would be unusual for him to make a true leap in ability at this point in his career. He might exceed 30 home runs again, but it's likely to come with a much lower batting average...something in the vicinity of .250.


Anonymous said...

I'm curious: Do you think there's anything to the "Pujols effect"?

There was correlation between hitting behind Barry Bonds and posting exceptional numbers during his heyday. I'm wondering if we're seeing the result of a similar effect when applied to Pujols, since Ludwick bats behind him.

Schruender said...

I think that Pujols would have to have some effect on this guy.

I agree that he probably won't have as good a season as last year - I think the best comparison is Carlos Pena 2007 vs Carlos Pena 2008.

Alex said...

Was the Bonds effect primarily due to the fact that there was ALWAYS someone on base (Bonds, that is)?

Schruender - That sounds about right to me.