Adjusting For Contest Size

Success at fantasy baseball is all about adjusting to context. Sometimes the context comes within the game of baseball itself - for example, adjusting for park or for league strength. Other times, the context is found within the rules of the fantasy game you're playing.

One such example is making adjustments for the size of the daily contest you're playing. Sites like FantasySportsLive and DraftHero run contests with as few people as two to as many as fifty. Your strategy needs to change to reflect the size of the contest! Two person contests are the most straightforward - you're generally going to do best simply picking the players who you believe will score the most points that day. But isn't that true in larger contests too? The answer is...definitely not! If you use the same strategy in a fifty person contest, you're going to frequently find yourself finishing in the upper half of the contest...but falling short of the top few spots that receive all the prize money.

The goal in a larger contest is to introduce variance to your scoring. Note that this strategy won't work (at least as described here) in a season long contest like Rotohog, because those have a real 'penalty' for putting up especially low scores. But in a single day contest you should be looking for strategies that will increase your chances of having the top score...even if those same strategies will also increase your chance of having a truly awful score.

There are really two things you can do to accomplish this:
1. Choose players whose performance is likely to be strongly correlated. The easiest way to do this is to choose players on the same team. If they knock the opposing starter out early and get to face the dregs of the opposing bullpen, that's going to benefit both of them...leading to a positive correlation in their scores for the day. If the batter hitting fourth gets an RBI, there's a pretty good chance that the batter hitting ahead of him got a run...again leading to greater correlation among their daily scores. Most games won't allow you to choose all players from the same team, but choosing mostly players from the same team is definitely a good idea in larger contests...particularly if you can identify a bad opposing starting pitcher to go against.

2. Differentiate from your opponents. This is a little trickier. In order for it to be a viable strategy, you need a few conditions to exist. Score should be heavily influenced by one player...for example a game format where a single starting pitcher generally scores almost half of a team's points for the day. You need to know that most of your opponents are likely to choose the same player for that position. Imagine a game with 20 contestants where the ENTIRE score is derived from a single starting pitcher. Now imagine that there are only two starting pitchers available today...Jake Peavy and Mike Pelfrey. Who is the better pick? Almost certainly Pelfrey! While Peavy might have a 75% chance of winning, if you win you'll be sharing your first place prize with about 18 other people. If Pelfrey wins (25% chance) you're likely to win the entire prize. This is a great (although admittedly extreme) example of how differentiation can help you in these contests.

Draft Hero

For those who like the NFL or NBA (or who just like free money), sign up for Draft Hero (info on right side of screen) and put "zoobird" (without quotes) in the promotional code field. They're giving 4,000 'player points' to each person who registers, which allows entry in $4 worth of real money contests. You get the player points whether you deposit money or not, and can use it to enter both 'salary cap' and 'live draft' competitions.

Johan Santana 2009

Johan Santana is another player whose value in traditional leagues may not be the same as it is in games where you can turn your roster over on a daily basis. In a traditional league, I would steer clear of him in 2009. While there's no doubt that he's still an excellent pitcher, his declining K/9 rate is a major concern. In 2004, it was 11.7. From 2005 to 2007 it ranged from 10.0 to 10.3 every year. Last year, pitching in an easier league it declined to 8.3. Combined with reports of reduced velocity on his fastball, I'd say there's some reason to be concerned about an injury, and he certainly appears not to be the clear 'best pitcher in baseball' that he was a few years back. Assuming he's still being drafted (based on reputation) in the first few rounds of most drafts, I would keep away. At this point, I'd be inclined to pick guys like Peavy, Sabathia, and Webb ahead of him. On the other hand, if his K/9 rate bounces back early in the season and is over 10 through his first 5 or 6 starts, then by all means go ahead and use him in Rotohog, Fantasy Sports Live, and the other daily games.

Randy Johnson 2009

Randy Johnson is one of those players who is potentially a LOT more valuable in games where you can choose a new roster every day (like Rotohog, FantasySportsLive, SnapDraft, and DraftHero) than in traditional fantasy baseball formats. That's because at his age (45) you REALLY don't want to have to count on him for a full, heathy season of baseball. But he's still pretty effective when he is healthy, and is a perfectly acceptable choice for spot starts when his match-up is good. Last year he struck out 8.6 per nine innings and walked only 2.2 per nine innings. That's not out of line with what he's done the past few years, and even assuming a continued decline due to age, I won't hesitate to use him against weak opponents in any of the contests listed above.

Fantasy Players Express

There are so many good fantasy baseball sites out there that it's hard to mention all of them. One newcomer with promise is Fantasy Players Express which has the unique feature of indexing content written by a large number of authors by player or topic.

Chad Billingsley 2009

It's fun to go back and look at old predictions we've made. Especially the really bad ones. Prior to the 2007 season I wrote the following in a post about Chad Billingsley: "He's got a shot to be an ok major league pitcher, but he won't be good this year, and if the Dodgers put him in their rotation ahead of Kuo, they're making a very big mistake." Ok...maybe they didn't make a very big mistake (although I still think Kuo is terrific and underutilized. On the other hand, Billingsley had a good 2007 (K/9: 8.8, BB/9: 4.0, GB%: 41%) and an even better 2008: (K/9: 9.1, BB/9: 3.6, GB%: 49%). Those numbers look an awful lot like A.J. Burnett (although Burnett has been doing it in the tougher league) and I think both pitchers have a good chance of being recognized as stars after this season.

Citi Field

In theory, I'm a Mets fan, although the ugly truth is that I'll root for whoever will help my fantasy teams the most, even if the Mets playoff hopes are at stake. That said, I'm very interested in the Mets new ballpark, Citi Field. In particular, I'm interested to see if it plays like Shea Stadium did (favored pitchers across the board), is more neutral, or actually ends up being favorable to hitters.

On balance, I'm guessing that it will favor pitchers, but maybe not in exactly the same way that Shea did.

1. Near sea level. Higher altitude parks tend to lead to more home runs.
2. Higher than normal outfield walls. Some home runs are going to turn into doubles and triples.
3. Outfield overhang. Actually the part of the stands that hangs over the field is a little tricky to predict. I would think it will turn some more home runs into doubles and triples...but depending on the trajectory, could also turn some outs into extra base hits.

So I think instead of turning home runs into outs (as Shea did), we may see it turning home runs into doubles and triples. If that's the case, faster players may be hurt a little less than slow players.

Driveline Mechanics

I've added another really top notch baseball analysis site to the link list on the right side of the page - Driveline Mechanics. As the name implies, there's a lot of focus on pitching mechanics, but there's a ton of other useful information as well. At least some of the folks writing for the site are pretty serious gamblers, so there's a lot of information that's useful for baseball handicapping, as well as game formats like DraftHero, FantasySportsLive, and Snapdraft.

AL to NL Pitchers

In a recent column at Roto Authority, Tim Dierkes provides a list of the pitchers that we already know will be switching from the American League to the National League this year. This is one of my favorite angles when looking for undervalued players in drafts. Not only do pitchers' stats improve in the NL because they get to face pitchers batting for themselves, but the overall level of competition in the NL has been weaker for at least the last four or five years. I already talked about Javier Vazquez here. Unfortunately, the list is pretty weak so far. There's Greg Smith, who I may write about in a future post, and there are a bunch of relievers. Unfortunately, the impact of league changes on relievers is generally much less...probably because good relievers don't get to face pitchers much anyway. Late in the game, the opposing pitcher is often a relievers, and is rarely going to be left in to bat for himself. Anyway, it's definitely a good idea to keep an eye out for pitchers who are traded from the AL to the NL between now and opening day, or those who sign in the NL as free agents. If the much rumored Greinke trade went through, that would be great news. Like Vazquez he'd be going from a hitter's park in the AL to a pitcher's park in the NL. That kind of change can make the difference between a pretty good fantasy pitcher and a star.

The Boring Part of Strategy

A number of new fantasy sports sites have popped in the past two years that have daily and weekly contests, rather than season long competitions. In some ways, these sites have a lot in common with poker sites, and the contests definitely appeal to those who like sports gambling. These sites include Fantasysportslive, Snapdraft, and the new kid on the block - Draft Hero (see information towards upper right corner of browser).

Strategy for these games places a heavy emphasis on your ability to adjust for context, and adjust player projections for factors such as park, homefield advantage, platoon differentials, and opponent. But the most single most important factor in your success is going to be something much more basic...and much more boring. Select your players as late as possible, so that you can make sure that they're in the starting lineup! This isn't a situation where you've got a full season to reach some sort of games or innings pitched limit. If a player isn't in the lineup, that's going to be compromise your chances in a big way, and with most players getting the occaisonal day off this can make a big difference over the course of the season.

Barry Zito 2009

I read somewhere that in the Bill James 2009 projections, Barry Zito is being forecasted to have an ERA of 3.94. My initial thought was that this is such an optimistic prediction that Bill must be lobbying for a job as Barry's agent. Zito hasn't had a FIP or xFIP below 4 in the past five years. He's a flyball pitcher, who never had a great strikeout rate or control, and his K/BB rate has been getting steadily worse for the past five years. In 2008, he struck out 5.7 batters per nine innings, while walking 4.8 batters per nine innings. That's pretty awful, and you neeed to have groundball rate around 55% to be at all effective with those kind of statistics. So is there any possible way that Zito could achieve a 3.94 ERA in 2009? Probably not, but it's possible. While Zito has had a steadily declining K/9 and increasing BB/9, the trend has been gradual. It's not completely inconceivable that his actual skills haven't changed during this time, and that the trend has been something of an illusion. If he reverts to his ratios of 2004 (K/9: 6.9, BB/9: 3.4), he would have a shot at 3.94 playing in a good pitchers' park. I certainly wouldn't bet on it though!

Chan Ho Park 2009

It seems like any assertion that Chan Ho Park is a decent major league pitcher has been treated as a joke for the past few years. Five straight years of earned run averages over 5.00 will do that to your reputation. That said, he's really not a bad pitcher. Last year's 79 strikeouts and 36 walks in 95 innings was pretty good. And he does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground. His 50.9% in 2008 was better than his career average, but he's almost always above 45%. The only problem is that Park has indicated that the Phillies will give him a chance in their starting rotation this year. He's likely to be slightly less effective as a starter (almost all pitchers are), and pitching his home games in Philadelphia obviously isn't good news. That said, if he's used very selectively, Park could have a little value in relatively deep daily transactions formats such as Yahoo. In formats such as FantasySportsLive and SnapDraft...no chance.

Jason Motte 2009

I think I have a new favorite player going into 2009. Jason Motte. Motte is a 26 year old former catcher, who has been pitching for only two years. The switch to pitching was clearly a good idea! At Memphis he complied an absurd 110 strikeouts and 26 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He didn't drop off at all once he reached the major leagues - 16 strikeouts and 3 walks in 11 innings! At worst he's going to be a dominant middle reliever for the next few years. He's got the potential to be better than that. If you're in a standard format Yahoo league, guys like this are crucial to your success. You can draft a team full of stud hitters, spot play underrated starting pitchers, and bring your ERA and WHIP down to reasonable levels, while adding to your strikeout totals and wins totals by using dominant relievers like Motte when they're home or in good pitchers' parks against relatively weak offenses.

Rafael Perez 2009

The Indians may have made a good move signing Kerry Wood to be their closer, but it's a shame that we won't get to see Rafael Perez close for a while. This guy is a really exceptional pitcher. For the past two years, he's averaged 10.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That's great under any circumstances. What's made it even better is that he doesn't suffer from the same failing that most other high K/9, low BB/9 pitchers do...he knows how to keep the ball on the ground. His groundball rates the past two years have been 52.6% and 57.1%. That's pretty incredible for a guy with his strikeout rate. Perez could be an exceptional closer if he gets the chance. In the meantime, he may be the best middle reliever in baseball.

Javier Vazquez 2009

I think Javier Vazquez is going to be terrific this year. Actually, I think Javier Vazquez will be terrific every year. I'm a sucker for great K/BB ratios. The WORST ratio of Vazquez' career was 150/60 in 198 innings in 2004. That's pretty amazing. In his worst season, he was (more or less) Chris Young. Most years he's been a lot better. I generally assume that pitchers are all going to revert to roughly the same rate of home runs per fly ball. In most cases, that's a pretty reasonable assumption, and even if we know that there is a small amount of skill in avoiding home runs on fly balls, we do fine making projections as if it was all luck. There are a few cases, such as Vazquez and Brett Myers, where we're doing so at our own risk. That said, he's already proven himself a very good pitcher with terrific K/BB rates. That's only going to get better with his move from a hitter's park in the American League to a slight pitcher's park in the National League. For those you who do futures prop bets (I don't...or at least, I haven't in the past), I'm guessing that Vazquez will be underrated enough to justify an investment in "Vazquez to win Cy Young" or whatever else is available.

Max Scherzer 2009

I'll start my 'new' blog off with a profile of one of my favorite sleeper picks for 2009: Max Scherzer. I think this guy is going to be somewhere between pretty good and really awesome. A lot of people know he's got potential, but despite that, the only mock draft I could find so far with full results listed in an easy to read format, he was the 200th pick. That's awfully low for a guy who struck out 66 and walked only 21 in 56 innings last year. His groundball rate was 41.7%, which isn't especially awful (although not great). He was better as a starter than as a reliever. That's unusual, and probably can be explained by the fact that most of his innings as a starter were in September. If you're an optimist, that means he was getting back as the year progressed. If you're a pessimist, that means he was beating up on inferior lineups in September. I'm an optimist...although I'm also the first to admit that a REALLY thorough analysis would check the lineups he faced in those games. Regardless, it looks like Scherzer will be very effective, strike out lots of hitters, and has superstar potential. The only thing not to like is his home park. Especially in game formats that allow complete roster turnover every day, pitching in a hitter's park presents you with a dilemma. Sometimes he gets home field advantage...but in a hitter's park. Other times he might be in a pitcher's park...but will be at a disadvantage because he's on the road. He's going to be good enough that he's worth using pretty often regardless.

I'm Back

Just wanted to announce that The Waiver Wire is officially re-opened for business. I'll be posting at least every few days (hopefully more) and will slightly broaden the original focus of the blog to include all aspects of daily transactions fantasy baseball - player profiles, strategy, etc. I'll also discuss the specifics of some of the daily format games that are out there, but will mostly steer clear of Rotohog (which I won last year) because I'll be writing a regular column about that for another (much more well known)web site.

Fantasy Fishing

Something else that might be interesting to anyone who stumbles across this blog...In 2008 FLW Fantasy Fishing gave out $2.3m in prizes (including $1m to the winner). I managed to take home $20 of Walmart gift cards and a roll of fishing line. Unfazed by my lack of success, I've started a blog dedicated to their 2009 competition. For updates on registration information, strategy, and news for the 2009 contest, visit my blog at Fantasy Fishing Blog

Update...Sort Of

I just realized that this site is still getting plenty of traffic even though I haven't updated it in over a year, so a few updates...

1. I won Rotohog Baseball 2008. First place. If anyone might be interested in staking or backing me in some high stakes leagues in 2009, send me an email.

2. If you're interested in statistical analysis of thoroughbred horse racing, visit my blog at Thoroughmetrics

Going to try online betting?

For those of us who haven't tried it yet, there are a ton of resources out there to help you with the task of online betting. As with fantasy sports, there are great statistical resources at a variety of sites where you can get player profiles on guys like Albert Pujols. You'll also want a source for the baseball line. Good luck in your pursuit of profit!