Friday, December 18, 2009
Edwin Jackson 2010: Traded to NL
In the past I haven't been a big Edwin Jackson fan. Despite the fact that he's always been considered a good prospect, his statistics never backed that up. In 2009, he showed great improvement, although his peripheral stats (K/9: 6.77, BB/9: 2.94) indicate that there was a degree of good luck involved in his 3.62 ERA. I would have expected his 2010 season to be somewhere between the old Edwin Jackson and the 2009 version...except that the trade from the American League to the National League will give him a nice boost. Some of that will be offset by moving from a good pitchers' park to a good hitters' park, but it will still be a net benefit. I'd project Jackson for something like K/9: 7, BB/9: 3.5, GB%: 40%, with an ERA in the low-to-mid 4s. In other words, he's a pretty average major league pitcher. Given his youth (26 years old), there's definitely still some upside though. Keep any eye on his strikeout rate...any K/9 above 8 early in the season would likely indicate that he's taken another step forward...especially if combined with solid control.