Average Draft Position (ADP): Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Justin Upton in 2010

This post was supposed to be about Justin Upton's fantasy prospects for 2010. Then I noticed that he's going substantially lower in mock drafts at Couch Managers than the two big free agent hitters - Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. All three are fairly similar statistically, with Bay possibly having a little more power than the other two (but lower batting average), and Holliday hitting for a slightly higher average (but less power). The big difference of course is that Upton is just 22 years old...still in the steep part of the learning curve. He has great breakout potential. Holliday is going to be 30 in a few weeks. Bay is 31 already. They're unlikely to improve substantially at this point, although depending what team each of them ends up on, they could get a boost from their home park. That said, Upton's age is a huge deal, and given a choice between the three players, I would probably pick him first. Luckily for me, it looks like others don't see it that way. His average draft position (ADP)at Couch Managers is currently 31st, while Holliday is 18th and Bay is 23rd.