Monday, May 4, 2009

Starting Pitchers for Today's Daily Fantasy Baseball Contests

Today was the toughest time I've had in a while choosing starting pitchers for daily contests. My ratings (which at this point are still based on my pre-season projections) have Kazmir as the top pitcher today. Unfortunately, his K/9 and BB/9 have been so bad that I'm concerned something may be wrong with him, especially given his history of arm issues. Vazquez is #2, but there's a chance that his game today will be rained out. A host of other pitchers are all rated fairly evenly, but several of them (Harang and De la rosa) have reduced K/9 rates this year that have me concerned. In the end, the two guys who look good are Gallardo and Greinke. Both are young pitchers who have been excellent so far this year. Because of the possibility that his absurdly high strikeout rate indicates a second straight year of 'breakout', I'm going with Greinke (who happens to be cheaper as well).

On the hitting side, there's Pujols...and everyone else. Basically the difference between Pujols the 2nd best hitter today is about equal to the difference between the 2nd best hitter and an average hitter. So for today's strategy, just pick Greinke, Pujols, and avoid rainouts. Following that plan, you should have a profitable expectation at Draftbug and other daily contest sites.

4 comments:

Dave said...

This week's bargain bin:

Marshall vs SF (Tues)
Boggs vs PIT (Wed)

Justin said...

Pujols is the SECOND best hitter today?????!!!!! You've lost your mind if I am reading that right! He is already being discussed as one of the best hitters (or the best hitter) ever.. He is head and shoulders over everybody else in the league. I watch him play every day and there is NOBODY near him. Sit down and watch a Cards game and you will see. It isn't even close. If I am reading it correctly, and you are saying Pujols is #2, then I am simply speechless. Please tell me I read it wrong lol.

Alex said...

Justin - You're reading it wrong...probably because I left out the word 'and'. Basically my point was that the gap between Pujols and #2 is as large as between #2 and average. That's for today's games. He's clearly the best overall, but there are some days when other guys are better simply because of matchups.

Jenifer said...

The problem with CC is that you're probably married to him in most formats.

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Jenifer
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