Rich Hill 2009

On the surface, Rich Hill looks like a good high risk, high reward pick to make in the late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts in 2009. But once you look a little deeper, it becomes apparent that this isn't the case. At his best, Hill offers strikeouts. Lots of them. The problem is, that's about all he offers. His control was never terrific. He's an extreme flyball pitcher. He'll be 29 years old on opening day, so he's at the point in his career where players don't tend to make dramatic overnight improvements. Then consider his 2008 season, where he completely lost the ability to throw the ball over home plate. Pitching at four different levels (including rookie ball), Hill averaged almost a walk per inning. When pitchers suffer such a complete loss of control (often refered to as 'Steve Blass Disease') it tends to be mental rather than physical, and also tends to be very hard to overcome. Hill is someone I would stay away from, no matter how good a "bargain" he appears to be, until he is able to string together three or four consecutive starts in the major leagues with low walk totals.