Heath Bell 2009

Two seasons ago I wrote a post predicting that Heath Bell should put up an ERA about 2 full runs better than his career mark (at the time) of 4.92. The prediction was on target, as he actually put up a 2.02 ERA with brilliant component stats (K/9: 10.9, BB/9: 3.2, GB%: 58.8%!!!). He was very good again in 2008, although not quite as dominant, as his K/9 dropped to 8.5 and his GB% dropped to 45.5%. My guess is that his true ability is more or less the midpoint between the two season, which will make him a very, very solid closer in 2009, as he takes over for the departing Trevor Hoffman.