Cole Hamels 2009

I've always been a big fan of Cole Hamels, and at one point I believed that he had a good chance to be the best pitcher in baseball. Hamels has been excellent, but is reason for some concern as his K/9 rate has dropped from 10.1 to 9.3 to 8.3 over the past three years. That's still very good, and the magnitude of the decrease is small enough that it's possible this is simply year to year variance, but my instinct is that it's an actual change in 'skill' and that Hamels is unlikely to reach 10.1 again. Looking at his rate statistics, Hamels has gone from being Scott Kazmir with better control to being James Shields with worse control. That's not a very encouraging change in a young pitcher, and although I still definitely consider him a top ten starting pitcher, I would avoid him in drafts for 2009, given how early he's being picked. I like him a lot more in games like Rotohog, Snapdraft, and Draftbug, as you'll have the opportunity to track how his strikeout rate is, and avoid him if it doesn't bounce back above 9.0.

Cameron Maybin 2009

Cameron Maybin has been considered one of the top prospects in baseball for several years. While I think he will ultimately be a successful major league player, I'm not sold on him as a future star (or an immediate contributor). Last year he spent the bulk of the season at AA, and managed only a .277 batting average, while striking out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances. I know he went 16 for 32 in a short major league trial, but if you adjust his AA performance for the level of competition, it certainly looks like he's going to have trouble making contact in the majors. He also didn't show really exceptional power (13 HRs in 390 at bats) although that is likely to develop over time as he will be only 22 years old on opening day. One final strike against Maybin is that while he has stolen plenty of bases, he's also been caught fairly often. Nothing out of the ordinary, but assuming it's harder to steal successfully in the majors, he may be caught often enough not to be given a green light very often. On the whole, Maybin is a player I think isn't ready to be a major fantasy contributor in 2009, and who I would steer clear of for now.

Andy Pettitte 2009

There hasn't been a lot of news regarding teams interested in Andy Pettitte this offseason. The assumption seems to be that he will probably sign with the Yankees, with a slight chance of Houston instead. Given how effective he still was in 2008, I would have expected other teams to make more of an attempt to lure him away. While his strikeout rate has declined some since his prime (6.9 BB/9 in 2008, 5.9 in 2007), his control is still good (2.4 BB/9 in 2008) and he does a good job of inducing groundballs (51.5%). Obviously, a move to the National League would make those numbers look even better. If he does sign with the Yankees, they're going to have a really scary rotation.

Jonathan Sanchez 2009

Early in the 2008 season I advised my brother in law to trade for Jonathan Sanchez. The advice worked out great as Sanchez struck out 8.8 per nine innings, walked 4.2, and had a 41.1% groundball rate. Solid numbers for a cheap starting pitcher. The only problem is that most people are a little more results oriented than me, and I suspect weren't that happy with Sanchez 5.01 ERA. That's life (and fantasy baseball). Sometimes you do the right thing, and don't get the results you want. The silver lining is that Sanchez should once again be cheap in 2009. He's at an ideal age for a pitcher (26). Young enough to have plenty of time to improve, old enough to be past the period when risk of arm injury is greatest. The Giants weak offense will ensure that Sanchez doesn't win a ton of games, but he should provide value (and a substantially better ERA) even if he isn't able to improve on his shaky control. If he can lower his walk rate at all, he may begin to have value even in leagues like Rotohog and Snap Draft.

Matt Lindstrom 2009

Because Florida doesn't have any strong alternative to take over as closer, many experts consider Matt Lindstrom a good value in the late rounds of drafts. Certainly a closer who is going around the 19th round of drafts can't be too terrible a pick, but there is definitely reason for some concern. In 2007, Lindstrom was excellent, striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings and walking 2.9 to go along with a good groundball rate (47.4%). Unfortunately, Lindstrom took a major step backward in 2008, striking out only 6.8 per nine innings and walking 4.1. In a starting pitcher, that kind of change would likely indicate arm trouble. Because of the limited number of innings they pitch, reliever statistics are generally going to have more variance, and we can't really draw any conclusions from Lindstrom's decline. Maybe he was hurt. Maybe he just wasn't as good as his 2007 season suggested. Either way, I think there's a good reason that he's going as low as he is in 2008 drafts.

Ubaldo Jimenez 2009

I'm not quite sure what to make of Ubaldo Jimenez. His strikeout rate (7.7 K/9 in 2008) and ability to induce groundballs (54.4%) ensure that he'll be effective even if he's unable to improve on his high walk rate (4.6 BB/9). The question is, how much of a chance does he have to improve and become a really top starting pitcher? He's got a few things going for him. Firstly, he's young. Jimenez will turn 25 in a few days, so there's time for improvement. He also throws very hard (94.0 MPH average fastball), which suggests that he may actually be able to improve on his already good strikeout rate. On the negative side, Jimenez has never had good control, even in the lower minor leagues. This isn't a case of a young guy trying to nibble at the corners of the plate when faced with tougher competition. Something in his mechanics or approach is causing the bad control, and it may be tough to 'cure'.

Bartolo Colon 2009

Bartolo Colon has reportedly been signed to a one year agreement by the Chicago White Sox. I've never been a big fan of Colon, probably because I felt that he wasn't worthy of the Cy Young award that he won. However, I think that this is a good signing. If he can stay healthy, Colon actually isn't a much a different pitcher than he was when he won the award. In 2008 he struck out 6.0 batters per nine innings, walked 2.2, and had a 40% groundball rate. All of those numbers are well within the range of what Colon has done in the rest of his career, and combined they make him an average to very slightly above average starting pitcher going into 2009.

Alexei Ramirez 2009

A lot of people seem to be high on Alexei Ramirez in 2009, especially given the weak options available after the top few middle infielders. He certainly put up very acceptable numbers in 2008, but I think he's much more likely to be a disappointment in 2009 than a bargain. He provides a decent combination of power and speed (for his position), and doesn't strike out that much despite the fact that he basically swings at everything. Because of that, there's been some speculation that 'his upside would be Vlad Guerrero'. Actually, Guerrero would be way, way past Ramirez's upside. The problem is, Ramirez is already 27 years old. He's not a young kid with years of improvement ahead of him. If he takes even a smalls step backwards from last year's performance, he's not even really a prospect - just a utility infielder.

Fausto Carmona 2009

I've seen a few people speculate that Fausto Carmona is a good bounce back candidate in 2009. I don't think so. To be fair, I've always thought he was overrated. At his very, very best, he's similar to Derek Lowe - average strikeout rate and control, absurdly high groundball rate. Unfortunately, he's only achieved that for one short season, and 2008 was a disaster for Carmona. He started off ok in April, but from May to September he was truly awful, with 44 strikeouts and 45 walks in 86 innings pitched. Most of that was compiled after he returned from an extended stay on the disabled list with a hip injury, so it doesn't appear that health was a factor. Carmona is young enough (just turned 25) that he still has a chance to be better than ever, but until he shows some improvement, I think he's only worth a pick in the last few rounds of a very deep draft. I'd MUCH rather gamble on a guy like Clay Buccholz (who I wrote about yesterday), who has more upside and actually pitched significantly better last season.

Big News - Draftbug.com

You may have noticed that the link to Drafthero.com is gone and there's now a logo that links to a site called Draft Bug. Draft Bug is my new site, and has one day fantasy sports contests just like Drafthero. In fact, it uses the same 'engine' and offers participation in the same contests. It's my own "skin" for the same games. If you haven't already registered for Drafthero, then you're eligible to sign up on Draft Bug . We're currently offering NFL playoff contests and NBA contests. NHL hockey is coming soon, and of course MLB opening day is on April 5th. Draft Bug has both real money and play money contests, and you can register and easily deposit money via credit card in a minute or two. I'd love to get feedback on the site and what we can do to make it even better!

Clay Buchholz 2009

Clay Buchholz is an almost perfect fit for my strategy for the last few rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. His 6.75 ERA and questions about whether he'll be in Boston's rotation to start the season will make him go very late in most drafts. That said, he's got tremendous upside. The awful ERA from last season does a good job of hiding the fact that he still struck out almost a batter per inning. If he can improve his control in 2009, he'll go back to being a very effective pitcher. In fact, if he repeats his 47.7% groundball rate, he stands a chance of being effective even with poor control. He's 24 years old, so there's lots of time for improvement. And other teams are trying to trade for him, which could give him a spot in a rotation and have the added bonus of removing him from a terrible pitchers' park. Overall, Buchholz is a great low risk/high reward player, and a great late round draft pick. If he gets a spot in a rotation (whether in Boston or elsewhere), I'd consider him one of the very best fantasy sleepers for 2009.

Jo-Jo Reyes 2009

The good news for Jo-Jo Reyes is that he's only 24 years old, he improved substantially from 2007 to 2008, and that he avoided being part of a rumored trade to the American League for Javier Vazquez.

The bad news is that he's not a very good pitcher, and he's got a girl's name.

The improvement he made last season was substantial, and in all areas. His K/9 went from 4.6 to 5.9. His BB/9 dropped from 5.1 to 3.9. And his groundball rate increased from 44.8% to an excellent 48.8%. Instead of being a great target for daily match-ups, he's now just a very mediocre major leaguer. His control remains weak, and his minor league numbers don't suggest any particular reason for optimism. On the other hand, young pitchers can improve rapidly, and his skills already appear to be trending in the right direction.

Anthony Reyes 2009

Anthony Reyes is a pretty good example of how things can go wrong for a young pitching prospect, even without major arm problems. In 2005 (at age 23), he struck out 9.5 and walk 2.4 per nine innings at AAA, and looked like a sure thing to be an excellent major league pitcher. However, four years later, he's still a borderline major legaue talent, and it appears that his skills have gradually declined. After being traded last season, he put up an extremely weak 4.1/3.3 K/BB/9 in Cleveland in 34 innings. Hopefully the elbow problems that eventually ended his season were something that can be fixed by rest. In any case, at age 27, it's now clear that Reyes will never be a star, but he should have a chance to start the season as a member of the extremely weak Cleveland rotation in 2009. Keep an eye on his K/9 ratio in late April to determine whether the elbow is still bothering him. If it's down near 4.0, then he probably has surgery in his future. If it's up around 6.0 then he's probably ok, and capable of being a moderately effective pitcher.

Name The Player

189.2 innings pitched, 245 strikeouts, 52 walks. Who is this fantasy beast?!?! A healthy Rich Harden? Randy Johnson in his prime? No...Takashi Saito's major league career numbers! I realize it's cheating to compare numbers compiled as a reliever, but it's still pretty impressive. The Red Sox have apparently continued their offseason trend of signing high risk/high reward players to cheap, incentive laden contracts, and signed Saito to a one year deal. When healthy, Saito will be one of the top middle relievers in baseball in 2009. The main fantasy impact of this signing in many formats will be a slight reduction in value for Jonathan Papelbon, as Boston will have another great option to close games when Papelbon has pitched the previous day or two.

Kenshin Kawakami 2009

The second major Japanese player to sign this offseason, Kenshin Kawakami, will apparently be part of the Atlanta Braves rotation in 2009. Kawakami is very similar to Koji Uehara, and should also be an effective major leaguer, although his control isn't quite as exceptional. He may make up for that with a slightly superior strikeout rate. I would expect him to put up something like a 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and groundball rate around 40%. Not a star, but a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. He'll be helped by pitching in a favorable park in the National League, and may end up with a very similar ERA to Uehara. One concern with both is that most Japanese pitchers haven't aged especially well, likely because of the inconsistent usage patterns they face when pitching in the Japanese professional leagues.

Francisco Liriano 2009

In 2006, Francisco Liriano struck out 144 and walked 32 in just 121 innings pitched. He had a 55.3% groundball rate. A repeat of that performance would make him the best pitcher in baseball in 2009. Unfortunately, Liriano missed all of 2007 after undergoing arm surgery. He made it back to the majors in April 2008, and was awful, before being sent down to the minors. Upon returning later in the season, he pitched very well (although far from his 2006 standards) and this performance is somewhat masked in his total statistics by the results of his April pitching. Once he made it back to the majors, he struck out 60 and walked 19 in 65.2 innings. One cause for concern is that his groundball rate was down to a very mediocre 41.6%. What should we expect in 2009? My best guess is that Liriano will be excellent, but not quite as good a pre-surgery. A strikeout per inning with good control seems reasonable. What I'm less sure about is his ground ball rate. Will it return to where it was in 2006? I have no idea, but for now am going to assume not. A slight increase to 44% or so seems like a reasonable guesstimate until we see how he's throwing early in the season.

Edinson Volquez 2009

Edinson Volquez had an outstanding season in 2008. He struck out 9.5 per nine innings, walked 4.3, and had a 46.3% groundball rate. If he can improve on any of those numbers in 2009, then he'll be one of the elite starting pitchers. Even if he can't, he'll be very good, although he is hurt quite a lot by his home park. Volquez is a great illustration of why you should pay more attention to how a young pitcher is doing now, rather than putting too much stock in past performance. In 2005 and 2006 he was so bad that he was a worthy target for match-ups in daily transaction leagues (combined 26 strikeouts and 27 walked in 46 innings). However, he showed substantial improvement in 2007, before a true breakout in 2008. Strikeout rates in particular are a sensitive enough indicator that even a sample as small as 20 or 30 innings can give you a good idea of a change in skill for an inexperienced player.

Rich Harden 2009

Rich Harden is one of the elite pitchers in baseball. He's particularly valuable in games where you don't have to worry about injuries, like Rotohog or Fantasy Sports Live. Last year, he improved on his already outstanding strikeout rate to 11.4 K/9 (in the AL) and then an incredible 12.1 after being traded to the NL. In fact, his strikeout rate has improved every year since 2004. His control remains mediocre (3.9 combined BB/9 in 2008), and if he could ever improve on that he'd likely be the best pitcher in baseball. Another concern is his incredible low groundball rate in 2008 (combined 30.0% pre and post trade). Earlier in his career he averaged a very respectable 44%. In 2007 that dropped to 38.7%. It can be tough knowing how to evaluate a trend like this. Is it a real trend, or just variance? Because groundball rates tend to be relatively stable, and given the size of the drop, I'm going to assume there's been a real change in his approach. The increase in strikeout rate makes me think that's even more likely. In cases like this, I tend to project a number somewhere in the middle of the possibilities...so my best guess is that his 'true' groundball rate is something like 36%. There just aren't many pitchers consistently down near 30%, and I'll assume that number was a little fluky unless Harden repeats it in 2009.

Justin Upton 2009

All you need to know about Justin Upton is that in 2007 he excelled at AA at 19 years old, and in 2008 he held is own in the Major Leagues at 20 years old. Upton is a future star. He's also an excellent player to illustrate the difference in how I look at promising young hitters and promising young pitchers. My posts on David Price generated a lot of discussion because I'm taking a 'wait and see' approach on Price. That won't be the case with Upton. I consider it virtually certain that he'll improve dramatically over the next few years, and very likely that he'll take a big step forward this season. That said, while a fast start for Price would convince me that he's already improved and would change my 2009 projections for him, a fast start by Upton wouldn't really have much impact on my already high expectations. In short, I think hitters are easier to project into the future, but pitchers are easier to evaluate true skill level in the present.

Jose Reyes 2009

Last season Jose Reyes rebounded from a somewhat subpar 2007 to post excellent numbers, more or less matching his 2006 performance. In traditional formats, he is considered a top five draft pick by most people.

I mentioned in the John Maine post this morning that Citi Field is likely to play as an extreme pitcher's park. In particular it is almost certainly going to depress home runs by a substantial amount. It may partially compensate for that by increasing the number of triples hit, due to the large playing field, the odd configuration of the outfield wall, and the outfield deck overhang. So the one Mets hitter who I would not necessarily avoid in 2009 is Jose Reyes. The key to what the park is likely to do to his value is in how your league scoring works. In most daily contest leagues (and also in Rotohog), a triple is worth only slightly less than a home run, so Reyes won't be hurt at all by the park. However, in traditional 5X5 and especially 4X4 leagues, he's going to take a slight hit in value...although still far less than the other Mets' stars.

John Maine 2009

John Maine had arthrscopic surgery at the end of last season, but is expected to be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training in 2009. His 2008 season was slightly disappointing as he only managed 140 innings pitched, and took a small step backwards from his 2007 performance. He struck out 7.8 per nine innings and walked 4.3 per nine innings, both worse than the previous year, although his groundball rate did rise slightly to 40.6%. I would expect something like a K/9 of 8.0 and a BB/9 of 4.0 from Maine this year. He does have one thing going for him though, as do all of the Mets pitchers. I had previously talked about Citi Field and speculated that it is likely to play as a slight to moderate pitchers' park. An interview of Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker by Eric Simon of Amazin Avenue has convinced me that it will be an extreme pitchers' park, possibily the worst home run park in baseball. The corresponding increase in other hits (especially triples) will not come close to compensating for the lost home runs, except possibly for a triples machine like Jose Reyes. Be very wary of Mets hitters in 2009 and look for reasons to use Mets pitchers on your team.

On an unrelated note, one of my readers correctly criticized me for crediting Rotoworld for some of the news reports I've mentioned. He (or she) was right. That was very lazy of me, since Rotoworld was only the place where I read the news, not the original source of the report. I have the perfect solution. From now on, I'll be even lazier, and not report the source at all. I will simply say 'according to reports' if it comes from a trusted source, 'according to rumors' if it's not from a trusted sourced, and 'allegedly' if I'm skeptical of it.

Are Pitchers Really Harder To Project?

An anonymous commenter on my David Price post had this to say:

You are totally nuts dude. look at his age and experience, coupled with his strikeout totals. No doubt this kid is a k per inning guy when he gets some time under his belt.

He may be right about Price's long term potential, but my post was really focused on how good Price is right now.

The common wisdom seems to be that future pitching performance is harder to predict than future hitting performance. In one sense that's true, but in some ways it's completely wrong.

What is true is that long term improvement is harder to forecast. The vast majority of 20 year old hitters will be substantially better five years in the future than they are now. The same really can't be said of pitchers. Some will suffer major injuries. Others will have more subtle problems with arm strength, mechanics, or other aspects of pitching that reduce their effectiveness. Many will never be better than they are at 20, although some will also reach their full potential later than almost any hitter. So in that sense, the common wisdom is correct. Pitchers' long term development is much harder to predict.

The good news is that in many cases we don't actually NEED to forecast development in pitchers. We can simply recognize changes in true ability faster than others. When a 21 year old hitter with a career average of .250 hits .320 in April, I have no idea if the change is permanent or simply short term variance. However, when a 21 year old pitcher with career ratios of 5.0 for strikeouts and 4.0 for walks completes the first month of the season with a ratio of 35/8 in 31 innings, I can be nearly certain that he's become a much better pitcher than he used to be. If I'm lucky, he'll have suffered enough bad luck to keep his ERA high, obscuring his true talent level, and allowing me to get a bargain.

So getting back to my anonymous friend...while he may be right about Price, we really have no idea. And rather than guess about the development of a young pitcher, I'd rather wait and see. Once (if) he becomes a "k per inning guy" it will be apparent within about five starts...and at that point Price is likely to be slightly undervalued in most leagues.

Tim Redding 2009

The Mets reportedly made an offer to Tim Redding yesterday. As a Mets fan, the prospect of Redding in the rotation in 2009 doesn't exactly have me jumping for joy. Last season he had a K/9 of 5.9 and a BB/9 of 3.2, while maintaining a 39.8% groundball rate. Very mediocre. And that was his best season since 2003. At 30 years old, it seems more likely to be an outlier than a true new talent level. Although in fairness to Redding, it was also his first full season as a starter in the majors since 2003. If he can repeat his 2008 performance, Redding is an adequate fifth starter. If he regresses to his 2004-2007 level, then he's the type of player you should be targeting when selecting hitters in daily formats. Especially when he goes on the road to some of the better hitters' parks.

John Smoltz 2009

Rotoworld is reporting that John Smoltz (rehabbing from major surgery) will be signing an incentive heavy contract with the Boston Red Sox. Smoltz will probably miss the first six to eight weeks of the season, so that cuts into his value in full season leagues. In his last full season (2007) Smoltz struck out 9.0 per nine innings and walked only 2.1 with a 44.7% groundball rate. He was even better in 2008 before he got hurt. He's unlikely to repeat those numbers in 2009 at 42 years old, coming off surgery, and going to a tougher league. He definitely could still be an effective pitcher though, and could end up being a bargain if people are scared off by the risk. He also may be an intriguing option in daily contest formats like Snap Draft and FSL, particularly when he pitches on the road (in pitchers' parks) against bad teams.

Trevor Hoffman (Part II)

According to Rotoworld, it now appears that Trevor Hoffman is more likely to sign with the Milwaukee Brewers for 2009 than with the Dodgers. This makes a lot of sense, as the Brewers actually need a closer (unlike the Dodgers). It also probably gives Hoffman a little extra value in full season leagues, as there will be less of a threat for him to lose the closer role if he struggles at any point during the season.

Trevor Hoffman 2009

It seems like a lot of people have written Trevor Hoffman off because of his age (41), lack of a team, and the fact that his ERA was much higher in 2008 than previous years. I think they're making a big mistake. Hoffman is likely to sign with a team, and judging by the reports of the Dodgers making him a one year $4.5m offer, he may get a chance to close ahead of Jonathan Broxton. On one hand, this is a shame...Broxton is ready to be a top notch closer. On the other hand, Hoffman should still be able to get the job done. In fact, despite the higher ERA, he had his best season since 2004 in ALL of the major component statistics, as he struck out 9.9 per nine innings, walked only 1.8, and had a 39.0% ground ball rate. He seems to be improving with age, and may be a bargain in most leagues on draft day.

Partnering

Now is as good a time as any to mention that I'm looking for someone to partner with on some high stakes leagues in 2009. If you might be interested, send me an email, and we can discuss it in detail. For those who don't know, the main accomplishment on my fantasy baseball 'resume' is winning the 2008 Rotohog Baseball global contest.

Koji Uehara 2009

It was reported yesterday that Koji Uehara will be a member of the Baltimore Orioles rotation in 2009. Uehara will be an effective major league pitcher, although certainly not a star. His main asset is excellent control. At one point in his career, for seven straight years he walked between 21 and 24 batters per year, while pitching anywhere from 131 to 207.1 innings per year. He does allow a lot of home runs though, and his strikeout rates in recents years haven't been exceptional when adjusted for the slightly lower level of competition in Japan. Pitching in the American League, I'd expect his number to be something like K/9: 6.0, BB/9: 2.0, GB%: 40%. The main risk with Uehara is that health issues could keep him from pitching effectively, as he's missed time during the past two years, while being moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back to the rotation.

Carl Pavano 2009

The Cleveland Indians signed Carl Pavano yesterday. The plan is apparently for Pavano to be their #4 starter in 2009. That doesn't say much for the bottom of their rotation. The last time Pavano pitched 100 innings was in 2005. The last time he made it to 101 innings was 2004, which was also the last time his K/9 reached 5.0. Not only is Pavano a huge injury risk, but whether he can still pitch effectively even when healthy is still an open question. In limited action (34.1 innings) Pavano struck out 15 and walked 10. Not exactly encouraging, although he pitched slightly better in his 19 minor league innings. His groundball rate (which had always been much higher in the past) also dropped to 40.5%. The thing that makes signing Pavano seem like a really bad idea though isn't the risk...it's the limited upside. Even in 2004, when many people were calling Pavano a star, his strikeout rate was only 5.9. So at best, he'll just be adequate. And with Pavano turning 33 years old tomorrow, I wouldn't count on things working out that well.

Brandon Lyon 2009

At the moment, Brandon Lyon doesn't have a team. Without knowing where he'll end up, we can't be sure how his role and his home park will affect his value. However, the Cardinals aren't confident in any of their options at closer and are considering signing Lyon. Although I don't think he'd be their best option at closer, this certainly isn't an awful idea. Lyon isn't necessarily BETTER than Jason Motte or Chris Perez, but at least he has a different skill set. While both of them should strike out more than nine batters per game, they're wild. Lyon will have a far lower strikeout rate, but will also have better control. Personally, I think he's not well suited to be a closer because of the low K/9, but he could still be an asset to the team. Because of his large jump in ERA, many people thought of Lyon's 2008 as a bad season. However, his component stats actually improved from 2007 as his K/9 went from 5.1 to 6.4 and his BB/9 dropped from 2.8 to 1.9. Whatever the role, Lyon should pitch fairly effectively again in 2009.

Rotoguru and WaiverSharks

One terrific site I haven't mentioned yet is RotoGuru. Not only does Dave Hall post his thoughts on a variety of fantasy games (many of which he's had great success at), but the site has active message boards on many fantasy topics, and provides some really useful 'tools' to help evaluate daily and weekly match-ups for games like Rotohog and TSN. If you stop by Rotoguru, please remind Dave that as far as I'm concerned he still owes me $1,000 for passing me in the 2007 Rotohog Baseball Top 10 on the final day of the season.

Another site to check out is WaiverSharks, where Scott focuses on sleepers and prospects. Even if you do your own evaluation of players, sites like WaiverShark can be a terrific source of ideas.

Snapdraft Strategy: Make Picks Late

This is actually a strategy for any of the daily contest games - including Snapdraft, FantasySportsLive, and Fanduel. There are at least three reasons to make (or review) your picks as late as possible:

1. Take advantage of late breaking news. If there's an injury or other late breaking news, you can target players who will benefit from it, and avoid those who will be harmed.

2. Make sure your players in the lineup. In particular, you can check lineups for early games. That alone is reason to slightly favor players (especially catchers and others who get frequent off days) in the earliest set of games.

3. Check the weather. Weather forecasts have a tendency to shift dramatically throughout the day. Sometimes a game that looks to have decent weather in the morning forecast will become a clear rainout risk by game time.

For more tips on Snapdraft strategy, visit Snapdraft Strategy

Armando Galarraga 2009

One of my readers commented on my post on Mike Pelfrey that he's a similar pitcher to Armando Galarraga. I don't completely agree that they'll put up similar stats, but they are probably about equally good pitchers. Galarraga has a slightly better K/BB ratio (6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) and is doing it in the tougher league. Pelfrey makes up for that by doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground - Galarraga had a 43.5% groundball rate last season...not bad, but significantly worse than Pelfrey. I would expect Galarraga to be solid again in 2009, although he may be drafted higher than he deserves based on his very lucky 3.73 ERA in 2008. He's also young enough that there could be substantial (and rapid) improvement in his future. As with any young pitcher, the best early indicator of an improving skill set is the K/9 rate.

Jonathan Broxton 2009

What should be expected from Jonathan Broxton in 2009? With the departure of Takashi Saito, Broxton will close for the Dodgers for the full season. In fact, I would expect a performance very similar to what Saito has provided over the past few years. Broxton's component statistics are similar to Saito's in most regards, although his control may be very slightly worse. That said, he's younger, which means there's more room for improvement, but also more chance that he'd be pulled from the closer role if he struggles at all. As with any player 'risky' player (and I'm using the term loosely in Broxton's case) his value is slightly higher in a format where you can turn over your whole roster at any time than it is in a traditional draft league format, where you'd be stuck with him in the somewhat unlikely event that he doesn't hold down the closer role.

Milton Bradley 2009

Milton Bradley has had two straight standout seasons. Although his .321 batting average from 2008 may be unsustainable (largely because he won't have a .388 ba/babip again), Bradley's 2008 was otherwise very much in line with what he had done the previous year. The quality of his 2007 performance was obscured by a lack of at bats, and to a lesser degree by unfavorable home parks. That wasn't a problem in Texas last year, and it won't be for the Cubs this year. If Bradley is healthy (always a big if for him), he should excel again. Like many injury prone players, Bradley may be a better bet in games like Rotohog and Snap Draft, where you won't be stuck with him if he gets hurt or isn't in the lineup at times.

Pat Burrell 2009

For a guy who seems so streaky during the season, it's amazing how similar Pat Burrell's statistics have been each of the past four years. There isn't a single statistic that appears wildly out of line in any one year. That said, Burrell (who was traded to Tampa Bay this week) is likely to see a small drop off this year, as he will be hitting in a less favorable park, and is likely to see more tough pitchers in the AL East. Also, at 32 years old, he's beginning to enter the part of his career when a small decline in performance is somewhat likely each year. Expect a low batting average, and generally more of the same from Pat Burrell in 2009.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove is doing a count down of the top 150 fantasy baseball players for 2009. He's currently up (or down?) to #91, so there's plenty of time to follow along.

Mike Pelfrey 2009

Mike Pelfrey has always been pretty good at keeping the ball on the ground, with a career average right around a 49% groundball rate. Unfortunately, until 2008, he wasn't very good at striking batters out or avoiding walking them. In 2008 his control took a step forward, as he walked 'only' 2.9 per nine innings. With a 5.0 K/9 rate, and his ability to avoid flyballs (and hence homeruns), that's good enough control to be effective. The question of course is whether that improvement was a true change in ability, or merely random variance. In general, when a player shows a large change in one of their component rate stats that is consistent with what would be expected at their age, I'm a believer that it's for real. So improving control in young players, or decreasing strikeout rates in old players, I generally believe are a lot more likely to be repeated than other changes. If that's the case, Pelfrey should be a solid (but not spectacular) member of the Mets rotation in 2009.

Matt Harrison 2009

Rotoprofessor recently made the 'crazy prediction' (his words, but I agree) that Matt Harrison would be in the top nine in American League Cy Young voting in 2009. I will be absolutely, completely shocked if that happens. I'll be somewhat surprised if Harrison remains in the Texas rotation for the whole season. In 2008 in the majors he struck out 4.3 per nine innings while walking 3.2. His groundball rate was 40.1%. None of those are good numbers. In addition, there's little in his minor league record to suggest that 2008 was a fluke. While some of the minor league numbers look better on the surface, they really aren't once you make some allowance for the much weaker competition.

More Good Blogs

Two more good blogs to report on...

Rotoprofessor has lots of interesting material, including the intriguing news that the Cardinals may not be comfortable with their more obvious options at closer, and would consider using Chris Carpenter there.

Jon at Advanced Fantasy Baseball just wrote a great article on what you should be thinking about in keeper leagues...something I know very little about.

Scott Kazmir 2009

I've seen a few people express the opinion that Scott Kazmir is overrated. I'm not sure what that's based on. In fact, I'd say that if anything he's underrated. Kazmir is consistently putting up K/9 rates of 10.0 or higher, while pitching in the tougher league. His control is bad (BB/9 of 4.2 in 2008), but he's also only 24 years old, despite the fact that it seems like he's been pitching forever. Another weakness in 2008 was an extreme tendency to allow flyballs (30.8% groundball rate), but that may have been a fluke, as his groundball rates in the past have generally been over 40%. I expect Kazmir to be one of the top pitchers in the American League in 2009. As a Mets fan, I'm still bitter about the one-for-one Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano trade. Since the day the trade happened I've considered it the stupidest trade in the history of major league baseball. Other trades may have worked out slightly worse, but none were as hard to justify.

David Price 2009

Most people consider David Price the top pitching prospect in baseball. His late season performance with Tampa Bay has people believing that he's going to be a superstar in 2009. I doubt that. I do think he'll be a solid major league starter right away, and he could be a star eventually, but his strikeout rates weren't quite high enough at any level of the minor leagues to convince me that he's ready to dominate in the majors in 2009. As he moved up from A to AA to AAA to the AL, he maintained a strikeout rate around one per inning. That's excellent, and his ability to keep it up as the competition got tougher is certainly a good sign. At the same time, his inability to achieve a higher rate in the lower minor leagues suggests to me that at this point, his 'true ability' is probably something like 7.0 K/9 in the majors, and I'd expect about a 3.0 or 3.5 BB/9...very solid, but not yet a star.

David Robertson 2009

In 30.1 innings pitched for the Yankees, David Robertson struck out 36 batters and walked 15. Yes, he's wild. But his talent for striking batters out is so good that he'll be an effective pitcher, even if his control never improves. As a 23 year old who still qualifies as a rookie, there's a chance he'll develop to be one of the top relievers in the game. His minor league strikeout rates were absurdly high...completely in line with what he did in the majors. John Sickels recently rated Robertson as the Yankees 14th best prospect. Either the Yankees have a great minor league system, Sickels doesn't like relievers, or Sickels really doesn't like short pitchers.

Carlos Zambrano 2009

If you want to find the person in any fantasy baseball draft who has the opposite philosphy from me when it comes to evaluating pitchers, just see who drafts Carlos Zambrano this year. I've always considered Zambrano slightly overrated, and the past two years he's showed an alarming decline in his strikeout rate from 8.9 in 2006 to 6.3 in 2008. Until he turns that around, I'm assuming that his arm is damaged goods, and that he not only won't pitch well but is at high risk of a major arm injury. Coupled with that high risk of not performing to expectations is the fact that he's generally drafted ahead of guys like Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw, who is already his equal and has a much higher upside. Then consider the very unfavorable park that Zambrano plays in. All in all, not a very enticing combination.

Matt Wieters 2009

Not only is Matt Wieters considered one of the top prospects in baseball, but he's being included in discussions of the top catchers in baseball, despite the fact that he hasn't yet played above AA ball. Make no mistake - Wieters is a terrific hitter, and could potentially equal the on base percentage of a player like Joe Mauer, while putting up a lot more home runs. That said, I think he's being drafted too high in some mock drafts. It's true that by letting Ramon Hernandez go, Baltimore has opened a spot for Wieters in their lineup. But I would still expect them to limit his playing time...and if he happens to slump, they're likely to send him down to the minors temporarily. Young players always have less margin for erro to remain in the everyday lineup than those who are already established. Also, I believe that part of Wieters' fantasy appeal is a perception that he's fast for a catcher...one set of projections has him with 7 steals. I'm not sure where that came from though...he only stole 2 bases in the minors last year (and was caught twice). Wieters in 2009 is actually a guy I like more for the daily contests like Snapdraft, Drafthero, and FantasySportsLive (and for Rotohog) than for traditional leagues where you'll be stuck with him on your bench on his days off or if he's sent down to the minors.

Clayton Kershaw 2009

Clayton Kershaw was considered by most to be the top pitching prospect in baseball going into 2008, and he didn't disappoint. In 107.2 innings pitched, he struck out 100 batters and walked 52, while maintaining a 48% groundball rate. That's already a very adequate pitcher (very similar to a pre-2008 Carlos Zambrano), and with Kershaw being only 20 years old, the sky is the limit. Factoring in his favorable home park, only makes him that much more of a prospect for sustained success. If he can improve his control (which I think is likely) and remain healthy, then Kershaw has a shot at becoming one of the elite pitchers in baseball in 2009 and beyond.

Joba Chamberlain 2009

Wow. It didn't really hit home just how good Joba Chamberlain is until I looked at his stats while preparing to write this post. In 2008 he struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings, while walking 3.6. His groundball rate was a superb 52.0%. Even if the strikeout rate and groundball rate drop a little, he's still a terrific pitcher. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a pitcher with a similar combination of strikeout rate and groundball rate. Sabathia is close (and more than makes up for it with his control) and Webb is close (and compensates with an even higher groundball rate), but the closest equivalent is probably A.J. Burnett who just falls a little short on his strikeout rate, and who I think is VERY underrated. In fact, the more I look at the Yankees 2009 rotation, the more impressed I am.

FIP vs. xFIP

One reader asked about this, and since I refer to xFIP from time to time, it's worth explaining. Less than ten years ago, a man named Voros McCracken made a startling discovery...pitchers had almost no control over what happened to balls in play. Greg Maddux was no better at "preventing hits" or "inducing weak contact" than anyone else. While his ideas have been debated and refined greatly since then, his original observation remains (in my opinion) the single most useful discovery in the history of baseball research...at least for fantasy players. You can do a better job predicting a pitcher's future ERA by looking at past K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates than by looking at past ERA. Ten years ago, nobody realized how important that was. McCracken's original formula for "DIPS" (Defense Independent Pitching Stats) was a little cumbersome to calculate, so Tom Tango came up with FIP...a simple formula that approximated DIPS and allowed easy calculation of what a pitcher's ERA should have been.

FIP = (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2)

One of the refinements to the original DIPS theory was the discovery that (to a large degree) pitcher's didn't even control the home run rate they allowed, other than their ability to impact the rate of groundballs vs. flyballs. xFIP was a statistic that replaced the home run rate in FIP with a 'normalized' value that assumed that all pitchers allow the same number of home runs per flyball.

It's worth mentioning that while these formulas are excellent predictors of the future, they remain oversimplified models that don't incorporate everything we know about predicting pitcher success. The pitcher does have SOME control over what happens to various types of balls in play...in other words, their is a small degree of 'skill' in this area...but it's so small that for most practical purposes we can do fine if we ignore it.

Gavin Floyd 2009

After pitching pretty well in 2007 (K/9: 6.0, BB/9: 2.3), Gaving Floyd took a step backwards in 2008 (despite increasing his strikeout rate to 6.4), as his walk rate rose to 3.1. Given the control problems he had earlier in his career, it seems like that his 2008 performance is more indicative of his true ability. Coupled with Floyd's flyball tendencies (41.2% groundball rate in 2008), he's a very mediocre pitcher who is going to be overrated going into 2009 by anyone who doesn't understand that component stats (such as strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate) are much better predictors of future ERA than past ERA is. It's also worth noting that Floyd is one of the few pitchers so bad at holding runners on base that he can be expected to always allow a few more runs than his other statistics would suggest...In 2008 he allowed 37 steals, with only 5 runners caught stealing.

Fantasy Game Day

Kelly at Fantasy Game Day has a lot of great material, including a slow mock draft that he's participating in, where he goes into great detail explaining his thinking as he makes each pick. He's currently up to the 4th round, so there's plenty of time to catch up and follow along as his draft progresses.

Randy Wolf 2009

At the same time that Oliver Perez is getting a lot of interest despite his demands for $70 million over five years, Randy Wolf is being described as 'ballsy' (by Rotoworld) for asking for $30 million over three years. By today's standards, that's chump change, and Wolf is actually a pretty good pitcher...very likely better than Perez. His control is better (3.3 walks per nine innings in 2008), and he allows slightly fewer flyballs (38% ground ball rate in 2008). His strikeout rate isn't even that much worse than Perez', as he struck out 7.6 per game in 2008 and 8.0 per game the previous season. Wolf is going to be a bargain as long as he can stay reasonably healthy.

Oliver Perez 2009

Oliver Perez is supposedly asking teams for a five year contract worth $70 million. That a number of teams are considering offering him something close to this just blows my mind. Going into 2009, this is a guy who hasn't had any xFIP below 4.65 since 2004. He combines wildness (4.8 BB/9 in 2008) with extreme flyball tendencies (between 30.1% and 35.7% every year since 2004). He doesn't even have an absurdly high strikeout rate anymore...he hasn't broken 9.0 for a season since 2004. Put him in a better hitters' park, and this could be a real disaster. Either way, someone is going to be very, very disappointed in a year or two. I'm not saying Oliver Perez is a bad pitcher, but he certainly isn't a very good one.

Madison Bumgarner 2009

Who? If you haven't been following the lower minor leagues, then you probably haven't heard of Madison Bumgarner...yet. He's only 19 years old, and pitched at in A ball in the San Francisco Giants system. His performance in 2008 was dominating. 164 strikeouts and only 21 walks in 141.2 innings pitched. He also allowed only 3 home runs, which could indicate that he keeps the ball on the ground...or could just indicate that he was a whole lot better than the batters he was facing. It's always hard to project such young players facing weak competition, but Bumgarner obviously bears close watching as he moves through the minor leagues. I'd expect him to put up excellent numbers again in 2009, probably beginning the season at AA. Keep an eye on whether his strikeout rate remains well above one per innings for a clue as to whether he's a future star.

Draft Hero...Fantasy Football Freeroll

For those who are new to the blog, I've been posting this each week...Draft Hero is essentially running fantasy football (and basketball) freeroll contests. Use promotional code 'zoobird' (no quote) when you register at Draft Hero and they're giving new players 4,000 player points, which allows you to enter in $4 worth of real money contests. They run daily/weekly fantasy contests with both salary cap and live draft formats available.

Johnny Cueto 2009

What should we expect from Johnny Cueto in 2009? The answer is...there is no answer. He's the first player I've reviewed where I'm just not sure what to expect. Overall his numbers in 2008 were decent, but not great. 8.0 strikouts per nine innings, 3.4 walks per nine innings, and a 38.6% groundball rate. He's still only 22 years olds, so there's lots of potential for breakthrough improvement. On the other hand, he threw a lot of pitches last year, and that always raises the concern for injuries in young pitchers. He's good enough that he could be an asset with the right match-up in games like Rotohog, Fantasy Sports Live, and Snapdraft...except his home park will ensure that his match-ups are rarely favorable enough to warrant using him in those games. His strikeout and walk rates by month don't help us much either...his worst months by far were June and September. Maybe the weak September shows that he was wearing down at the end of the season...but is that cause for optimism (he'll bounce back now that he's had the offseason to rest) or concern (all that wear on his young arm could cause injuries). Cueto definitely has the potential for a breakout season. He's a player worth watching in the pre-season and in April. If his K/9 rate makes it above 9 and his BB/9 goes below 3, then strongly consider using him. Until then, he's only worth taking in the late rounds of drafts, and probably not worth using in most daily contest games.

Brian Fuentes 2009

Now that Brian Fuentes has been signed to close for the Angels in 2009, the Shields vs. Arredondo argument can be put to rest. They'll both be used to set up Fuentes, who should be an able replacement for Francisco Rodriguez. Fuentes had arguably the best year of his career in 2008, strikout out 12.4 batters per nine innings, while walking only 3.3. He does allow too many flyballs (32.6% groundball rate), but if he repeats those numbers he stands a good chance of outperforming K-Rod this year. Even if he reverts to something more in line with the rest of his career (say 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9), he'll be excellent. While the league change may cause some to expect a drop off in performance, I don't think that will be the case for two reasons. First of all, he'll escape from Coors Field, to a more favorable home park. And second of all, changing leagues has much less impact on relievers than on starters, since they rarely get to pitch to other pitchers anyway.

Chris Perez 2009

As of today, Chris Perez is the Cardinals closer for 2009. However, there's a good chance that the Cardinals will end up signing a proven closer such as Trevor Hoffman or Takashi Saito between now and opening day. Would they be making a mistake to pass up the opportunity to sign a free agent, and let Perez keep the job?

The short answer is 'yes'. Perez simply doesn't have the control to be consistently successful at this point in his career. He walked 22 batters in 41.2 innings (while strikout out 42), and his minor league numbers suggest that his control may actually be a little worse than that. In addition, he allows a lot of flyballs (38.7% groundball rate). He is only 23 years old, so there's plenty of time for improvement, but at this point in Perez' career, St. Louis shouldn't be relying too heavily on him. If they do allow him to remain as their closer going into the season, keep an eye on the rest of their bullpen to see who might replace Perez when he falters.

Brad Penny 2009

Brad Penny in 2009 will be a player to stay away from at all costs. Not only will he meet some of the criteria...he'll meet just about all of the criteria:

-Already overrated.
-Changing leagues from NL to AL
-Going from pitchers' park to hitters' park
-Declining strikeout rate (from 7.1 in 2006 to 4.6 in 2008)
-Increasing walk rate (from 2.1 in 2005 to 3.8 in 2008)
-Injury issues

Some people may recommend him as a 'sleeper' who is likely to rebound "if healthy", and win a lot of games because of Boston's offense. Don't be fooled. Even if he is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2006 and 2007, he's going to struggle in the much tougher American League and pitching half his games in Boston.

Tommy Hanson 2009

Tommy Hanson's performance in the recently concluded Arizona Fall League has turned him into one of the hottest prospects in baseball for 2009. Hanson became the first pitcher ever to win the AFL's MVP award, as he struck out an amazing 49 batters in 28.2 innings, while walking only 7 batters. He spent his time in the league working on his newly developed changeup, and apparently it's an effective one! Hanson's previous minor league numbers were good, but didn't suggest that he was capable of anything like this yet - 2008 combined A and AA he struck out 163 and walked 52 in 138 innings. That's very good, but suggests a pitcher who needs to improve his control before dominating at AAA and in the majors. In addition, his homerun rates have tended to be a little high, indicating that he likely is a flyball pitcher. That said, Hanson certainly is ready for success at AAA (if not the majors), and if his performance in the AFL was really because of his new pitch (and a real improvement in his control), and not just a fluke, then he's going to be an excellent pitcher in the near future.

Baseball Happenings

Another great baseball site to let people know about is Baseball Happenings. Like others that I've mentioned here, I'm adding a link to it on the right side of the screen so you can find it easily later.

Fantasy Baseball 365

One really good site that focuses on fantasy baseball is Fantasy Baseball 365. Charlie's posts tend to be very detailed, so there's a lot of great material to comb through if you haven't visited his site before.

Who Will Close For The Rangers

Unless they sign a free agent (a distinct possibility), the race for Texas Rangers closer in 2009 comes down to Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson. Personally, I wouldn't be thrilled with either if I was a Rangers fan. Wilson clearly doesn't have the skill set to be a reliable closer, with neither an overpowering strikeout rate (K/9: 8.5 in 2007 and 7.4 in 2008) and mediocre control (BB/9: 4.5 in 2007 and 4.9 in 2008). Francisco has the advantage of a great strikeout rate (2008 K/9: 12.1), and if he can maintain even the moderate level of control that he attained in 2008 (BB/9: 3.8) he'll be excellent. Unfortunately, I think a small amount of regression in both areas is likely, making him a slightly scare proposition when you consider his tendency to allow a lot of fly balls. He's still the right choice here, and given the fact that most teams prefer to have righty closers, Texas will probably do the right thing.

Who Will Close For The Cubs?

With the departure of Kerry Wood, and the trade for Kevin Gregg, the Chicago Cubs now have two potential closers for 2009. I've seen speculation that Gregg will close, and I've seen speculation that Carlos Marmol will close. Strangely, everyone who writes about it seems quite sure of their opinion. I'd say that this one is very much up in the air. Before I did any research, I was assuming that it would be very clear that what the Cubs SHOULD do is make Marmol the closer. After looking at the numbers, it's not as clear cut as I expected. What it really comes down to is whether you think Kevin Gregg's weak 2008 numbers (K/9: 7.6, BB/9: 4.8) were simply a bad season, or a sign of declining skills. While it was his worst performance in the past five years, it wasn't quite far enough out of line to be sure that something was wrong. If he gets his K/9 up to the 8.0 to 8.5 range, while lowering his BB/9 to 3.0 or slightly above, then he's not much worse (if any) than Marmol, who strikes out a ton of batters, but has awful control (over 5.0 BB/9 for his career) and appears to be a really extreme flyball pitcher.

Rotoscoop

For the most part, I stick to baseball on The Waiver Wire. About the farthest afield I'll stray is to discuss some principles that can be applied to a variety of fantasy sports. One good blog that is more seasonal in nature (following whatever sports is most active at the time) is Rotoscoop.

Mike Napoli 2009

A good source of sleepers or players ready for breakout seasons is those who have put up good numbers in a limited number of at bats. Mike Napoli definitely fits the bill going into 2009. In only 227 at bats (274 plate appearances), he hit .273 with 20 home runs, and even had 7 steals. While those numbers are probably a bit of a statistical fluke, he has now hit 46 career home runs in just over 700 at bats. Given that he's already 27 years old, he's unlikely to improve any further, but who cares. Given 450 at bats he could hit .250 with 30 homers and 10 steals. That's incredible production for a catcher, and especially one likely to slip to the middle rounds in most drafts. The best news of all is that the Angels are supposedly looking for ways to get him more playing time, even if they have to use him at DH sometimes.

Fernando Rodney 2009

I was surprised to see recently that as of right now, Fernando Rodney is still anticipated to be the Detroit Tigers closer in 2009. Really? Haven't they figured out yet that relying on marginally effective pitchers who have trouble staying healthy as their closer isn't such a good idea? At his best Rodney is overpower, if a bit wild. He can strike out more than a batter per inning, which means he'll always be ALMOST dominating. At the same time, if he walks six batters per inning as he did last season, he's going to allow a lot of runs. Complicating any projection for him is the fact that his groundball rate has ranged from a weak 40.2% (in 2008) to as high as 56.5% (in 2006). Where his 'true' skill lies in that range will make a big difference in whether he can get the job done as a closer for an entire season. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Phil Hughes 2009

Depending on how things shake out over the Winter, it looks like Phil Hughes may end up as the Yankees #6 starting pitcher in 2009. That would probably mean some time in AAA and some time filling in for injured starters in the majors. That's not what I had in mind when I wrote about Hughes prior to the 2007 season. I described him as the real deal and predicted that he'd be an effective major league starter by the All-Star break. Actually, those predictions were right, but in an injury plagued year, he took a step back this year as he only managed somewhat ineffective 34 major league innings. I think Hughes is a pitcher who should be watched closely in Spring Training. In particular, wait to see what his strikeout rate is. Even in limited sample sizes of 15-20 innings, that can be a good indicator as to health and general effectiveness. If his rate is up near one per inning, then he's likely to pitch well at whatever level he's placed. If it's down near 5 or 6 then something may be wrong - whether health related or mechanics related (as some surmised last year).

Draft Hero...Again

This is basically a re-post from last week, since there are lots of new visitors to The Waiver Wire...

For those who like the NFL or NBA (or who just like free money), sign up for Draft Hero (info on right side of screen) and put "zoobird" (without quotes) in the promotional code field. They're giving 4,000 'player points' to each person who registers, which allows entry in $4 worth of real money contests. You get the player points whether you deposit money or not, and can use it to enter both 'salary cap' and 'live draft' competitions.

Thanks to those free player points, I'm now $10.80 richer than I was last week, thanks to some good contest results. Not much maybe, but its always nice to build a free bankroll ahead of baseball season.

Heath Bell 2009

Two seasons ago I wrote a post predicting that Heath Bell should put up an ERA about 2 full runs better than his career mark (at the time) of 4.92. The prediction was on target, as he actually put up a 2.02 ERA with brilliant component stats (K/9: 10.9, BB/9: 3.2, GB%: 58.8%!!!). He was very good again in 2008, although not quite as dominant, as his K/9 dropped to 8.5 and his GB% dropped to 45.5%. My guess is that his true ability is more or less the midpoint between the two season, which will make him a very, very solid closer in 2009, as he takes over for the departing Trevor Hoffman.

Dan Wheeler 2009

Dan Wheeler should begin 2009 as the Tampa Bay Rays closer. He's coming off a 2008 season in which he had a WHIP of 0.99 almost equally the career best 0.98 that he set with Houston in 2005. He had a good season, but there is some reason for concern. Hidden below the solid ERA (3.12) and WHIP, his strikeout rate deteriorated to 7.7...the lowest its been since 2004 by a wide margin. Meanwhile his grounball rate dropped to 28.4%. That's one of the lowest I've ever seen. So are his worsening component stats indicative of a problem, or just a one year blip? It's hard to tell. Given the small number of innings that relievers pitch (66.1 in Wheeler's case) there do tend to be larger one year fluctuations in their numbers. I would suggest watching his first month or so to see if there's any continued slippage in his K/9 rate, or whether it rebounds to its previous level around 9.

Jose Arredondo 2009

I've seen several sites list both Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields as potential replacements for Francisco Rodriguez as the Angels' closer in 2009. While I suspect that Shields will get first shot at the role, his control has been a little shaky the past two years, so Arredondo may get a chance to close at some point in 2009. If he does, he should do fine. In 2008, he struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5. That would be good, but coupled with his 51.2% groundball rate, it's excellent. His minor league numbers are roughly in-line with what he accomplished in the majors, although they seem to indicate the potential for slightly worse control.

Joel Hanrahan 2009

Joel Hanrahan is expected to close for the Washington Nationals in 2009. If he's as good as he was in 2008 (K/9: 9.9, BB/9: 4.5, GB%: 42.6%) then he should be pretty effective, and a likely bargain in the late rounds of most drafts. I'm skeptical though. This is a guy who was so bad in the majors (K/9: 6.8, BB/9: 6.0, GB%: 30.6%) in 2007 that he was one of my favorite targets for opposing hitters. His minor league numbers are very consistent with his 2007 performance (or lack thereof). So while he may have suddenly figured out how to pitch as a 26 year old, I do expect some regression. Something like a strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings and a walk rate of 4.5 per nine innings, with a groundball rate of around 40% seems reasonable. That could be good enough to get the job done as a closer, but I definitely expect him to go through some rough patches.

Why Rake Matters For Fantasy Sports

Rake is something that poker players generally pay a lot more attention to than fantasy sports participants. But if you're serious about making money at fantasy sports, you should give it some consideration.

If you take a look at the payouts for most fantasy sports sites, rake (the difference between the total entry fees for a contest and the total amount paid out in prizes) varies from 10% (or even lower) to as high as 30% or 40%. This makes a moderate difference in how profitable full season fantasy sports events will be, but in general the format and quality of competition are going to be even more important in those events.

However, in daily contest games, the amount of rake is absolutely critical. Think about what will happen to the money of an 'average' player who starts with a bankroll of $100. Let's compare two games...one with 10% rake (like Drafthero) and another with 20% rake (like Snapdraft). Each player uses their full bankroll to enter contests and gets an 'average' return (90% for Drafthero and 80% for Snapdraft). So the first 'round' of bets they each bet $100. Next round the Drafthero player bets $90 and the Snapdraft player bets $80. Next round the numbers are $81 and $64. After 22 rounds, the Snapdraft player has less than the $1 he needs to enter a contest. The Drafthero player doesn't run out until the 44th round. The Snapdraft player will have only bet a total of $495 compared to the Drafthero player's $990.

Obviously, the impact is even greater for a winning player. The same person who is breakeven at Snapdraft is going to have a 10% return on investment at Drafthero, and can make a ton of money.

Greg Reynolds 2009

One of the keys to success in any daily transactions fantasy baseball game is figuring out who the truly awful pitchers are, and using hitters who are playing against them. Taking advantage of these matchups isn't quite as easy as it sounds though, since not only do you have to identify the worst of the worth, and evaluate exactly how great the impact of their badness is, but most of them don't last long in the major leagues, and are quickly replaced by minor leagues and converted relievers, some of whom are decent pitchers and some who aren't any better. Also, in many cases, the worst statistics are put up by young pitchers who may improve, or pitchers suffering from injuries, whose health may improve over time. So you need to pay close attention to whether the best indicator statistics (K/9 and BB/9) are showing improvement.

That said, it's always good to go into the season knowing which pitchers to target. One of my favorites in 2009, assuming he's in the major leagues, is Gregory Reynolds. Not only was he really, really bad in 2008 (K/9: 2.9, BB/9: 3.4, GB%: 45.1%), but you get the added bonus that he pitches in Colorado! His strikeout rates in the minor leagues were also quite low, so really the only real hope for him to be any good is if he improves a lot AND it turns out that he was unlucky with his groundball rate in 2008 and that his true rate is above 50%.

Coincidence? I Think Not!

A few days ago, I wrote a post about adjusting strategy for contest size in daily contests. I thought it was one of my better recent posts. It happens that I used some of my free player points at DraftHero to enter their "50 person" NFL contest yesterday. Because the site is so new, only 15 people entered, so my odds were pretty good from the beginning. Its worth mentioning that I'm pretty clueless when it comes to the NFL. I like football, but just don't follow it very closely. I used the high variance strategy I discussed in the blog post though, picking 5 players from New Orleans...and came in 2nd out of 15 people...and $9 richer. The strategy I described really does work (although I obviously got lucky to succeed on my first try) in games like Draft Hero, Fantasy Sports Live, and Snap Draft. If you're interested in signing up for Draft Hero and getting free player points that allow entry in $4 of real money contests, use my promotional code ("zoobird") and go to Draft Hero.

Josh Fields 2009

It appears that the White Sox are going to be relying on Josh Fields to rebound from his dismal year last year and be a major contributor in 2009. The only problem is...rebound to what? While Fields has good power and draws his fair share of walks, neither asset is good enough to offset his extremely high strikeout totals and the impact those have on his batting average. His minor (and major) league record shows that he's always going to struggle to reach a .250 batting average, and at 26 years old he's not likely to improve too much more. Fields is probably going to be one of those guys who will always be a 1 for 27 slump away from being sent down to AAA.

John Lannan 2009

John Lannan is a pretty good example of why you should always be prepared for young pitchers to improve. When he reached the majors for part of 2007 (at the age of 22), he was so bad that I would look for hitters who were opposing him that day. In 34.2 innings, he struck out only 10, and walked 17 batters. It doesn't get much worse than that. Even with a 50% groundball rate, he was a truly terrible pitcher. His minor league numbers weren't much better once adjusted for the weaker competition. Actually, even his college numbers were awful, other than his final season. However, he apparently figured things out in 2008, and put up respectable numbers. In 182 innings, he struck out 117 batter and walked 72. That's not great, but with a 54% groundball rate, and pitching in a good pitchers park, he's now a perfectly ok major league pitcher, and no longer worth targeting in daily transactions leagues. He'll be 24 years old until the last few days of the 2009 season, so there's still a lot of room (and time) for further improvement.

Fantasy Players Express

Just wanted to make a quick mention of another new fantasy baseball site. Mike Kuchera of Fantasy Baseball Express, also known as 'The Fantasy Man' has created Fantasy Players Express which is basically an indexed fantasy baseball reference site with multiple expert authors contributing articles on specific players or topics.

Daniel Cabrera 2009

According to Rotoworld, the Nationals and Daniel Cabrera have come to terms on a one year deal for 2009. Allegedly, several other teams were in hot pursuit. One has to wonder why there was so much interest in Cabrera. For years he's been a pitcher who compiled high strikeout totals, but was barely effective due to his incredibly bad control. In 2007 his strikeout rate began to decline from its previous levels (to 166 Ks in 204.1 innings), and 2008 it plummetted to 95 strikeouts in 180 innings. Those are the strikeout numbers of a good control pitcher...except that Cabrera still walked 90 in 180 innings. Only EXTREME ground ball pitchers can last in the major leagues with numbers like those, and while Cabrera does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground (48% in 2008), he would need to be up over 55% for his K/BB ratio to be close to acceptable. So the 'prize' that the Nationals won is a guy who will be barely effective (although helped slightly by the change of league and park)...if they're lucky and last year was an aberation. If they're unlikely, he'll pitch like last year (badly) or it will turn out that last year was an indication of long term health problems.

Adjusting For Contest Size

Success at fantasy baseball is all about adjusting to context. Sometimes the context comes within the game of baseball itself - for example, adjusting for park or for league strength. Other times, the context is found within the rules of the fantasy game you're playing.

One such example is making adjustments for the size of the daily contest you're playing. Sites like FantasySportsLive and DraftHero run contests with as few people as two to as many as fifty. Your strategy needs to change to reflect the size of the contest! Two person contests are the most straightforward - you're generally going to do best simply picking the players who you believe will score the most points that day. But isn't that true in larger contests too? The answer is...definitely not! If you use the same strategy in a fifty person contest, you're going to frequently find yourself finishing in the upper half of the contest...but falling short of the top few spots that receive all the prize money.

The goal in a larger contest is to introduce variance to your scoring. Note that this strategy won't work (at least as described here) in a season long contest like Rotohog, because those have a real 'penalty' for putting up especially low scores. But in a single day contest you should be looking for strategies that will increase your chances of having the top score...even if those same strategies will also increase your chance of having a truly awful score.

There are really two things you can do to accomplish this:
1. Choose players whose performance is likely to be strongly correlated. The easiest way to do this is to choose players on the same team. If they knock the opposing starter out early and get to face the dregs of the opposing bullpen, that's going to benefit both of them...leading to a positive correlation in their scores for the day. If the batter hitting fourth gets an RBI, there's a pretty good chance that the batter hitting ahead of him got a run...again leading to greater correlation among their daily scores. Most games won't allow you to choose all players from the same team, but choosing mostly players from the same team is definitely a good idea in larger contests...particularly if you can identify a bad opposing starting pitcher to go against.

2. Differentiate from your opponents. This is a little trickier. In order for it to be a viable strategy, you need a few conditions to exist. Score should be heavily influenced by one player...for example a game format where a single starting pitcher generally scores almost half of a team's points for the day. You need to know that most of your opponents are likely to choose the same player for that position. Imagine a game with 20 contestants where the ENTIRE score is derived from a single starting pitcher. Now imagine that there are only two starting pitchers available today...Jake Peavy and Mike Pelfrey. Who is the better pick? Almost certainly Pelfrey! While Peavy might have a 75% chance of winning, if you win you'll be sharing your first place prize with about 18 other people. If Pelfrey wins (25% chance) you're likely to win the entire prize. This is a great (although admittedly extreme) example of how differentiation can help you in these contests.

Draft Hero

For those who like the NFL or NBA (or who just like free money), sign up for Draft Hero (info on right side of screen) and put "zoobird" (without quotes) in the promotional code field. They're giving 4,000 'player points' to each person who registers, which allows entry in $4 worth of real money contests. You get the player points whether you deposit money or not, and can use it to enter both 'salary cap' and 'live draft' competitions.

Johan Santana 2009

Johan Santana is another player whose value in traditional leagues may not be the same as it is in games where you can turn your roster over on a daily basis. In a traditional league, I would steer clear of him in 2009. While there's no doubt that he's still an excellent pitcher, his declining K/9 rate is a major concern. In 2004, it was 11.7. From 2005 to 2007 it ranged from 10.0 to 10.3 every year. Last year, pitching in an easier league it declined to 8.3. Combined with reports of reduced velocity on his fastball, I'd say there's some reason to be concerned about an injury, and he certainly appears not to be the clear 'best pitcher in baseball' that he was a few years back. Assuming he's still being drafted (based on reputation) in the first few rounds of most drafts, I would keep away. At this point, I'd be inclined to pick guys like Peavy, Sabathia, and Webb ahead of him. On the other hand, if his K/9 rate bounces back early in the season and is over 10 through his first 5 or 6 starts, then by all means go ahead and use him in Rotohog, Fantasy Sports Live, and the other daily games.

Randy Johnson 2009

Randy Johnson is one of those players who is potentially a LOT more valuable in games where you can choose a new roster every day (like Rotohog, FantasySportsLive, SnapDraft, and DraftHero) than in traditional fantasy baseball formats. That's because at his age (45) you REALLY don't want to have to count on him for a full, heathy season of baseball. But he's still pretty effective when he is healthy, and is a perfectly acceptable choice for spot starts when his match-up is good. Last year he struck out 8.6 per nine innings and walked only 2.2 per nine innings. That's not out of line with what he's done the past few years, and even assuming a continued decline due to age, I won't hesitate to use him against weak opponents in any of the contests listed above.

Fantasy Players Express

There are so many good fantasy baseball sites out there that it's hard to mention all of them. One newcomer with promise is Fantasy Players Express which has the unique feature of indexing content written by a large number of authors by player or topic.

Chad Billingsley 2009

It's fun to go back and look at old predictions we've made. Especially the really bad ones. Prior to the 2007 season I wrote the following in a post about Chad Billingsley: "He's got a shot to be an ok major league pitcher, but he won't be good this year, and if the Dodgers put him in their rotation ahead of Kuo, they're making a very big mistake." Ok...maybe they didn't make a very big mistake (although I still think Kuo is terrific and underutilized. On the other hand, Billingsley had a good 2007 (K/9: 8.8, BB/9: 4.0, GB%: 41%) and an even better 2008: (K/9: 9.1, BB/9: 3.6, GB%: 49%). Those numbers look an awful lot like A.J. Burnett (although Burnett has been doing it in the tougher league) and I think both pitchers have a good chance of being recognized as stars after this season.

Citi Field

In theory, I'm a Mets fan, although the ugly truth is that I'll root for whoever will help my fantasy teams the most, even if the Mets playoff hopes are at stake. That said, I'm very interested in the Mets new ballpark, Citi Field. In particular, I'm interested to see if it plays like Shea Stadium did (favored pitchers across the board), is more neutral, or actually ends up being favorable to hitters.

On balance, I'm guessing that it will favor pitchers, but maybe not in exactly the same way that Shea did.

1. Near sea level. Higher altitude parks tend to lead to more home runs.
2. Higher than normal outfield walls. Some home runs are going to turn into doubles and triples.
3. Outfield overhang. Actually the part of the stands that hangs over the field is a little tricky to predict. I would think it will turn some more home runs into doubles and triples...but depending on the trajectory, could also turn some outs into extra base hits.

So I think instead of turning home runs into outs (as Shea did), we may see it turning home runs into doubles and triples. If that's the case, faster players may be hurt a little less than slow players.

Driveline Mechanics

I've added another really top notch baseball analysis site to the link list on the right side of the page - Driveline Mechanics. As the name implies, there's a lot of focus on pitching mechanics, but there's a ton of other useful information as well. At least some of the folks writing for the site are pretty serious gamblers, so there's a lot of information that's useful for baseball handicapping, as well as game formats like DraftHero, FantasySportsLive, and Snapdraft.

AL to NL Pitchers

In a recent column at Roto Authority, Tim Dierkes provides a list of the pitchers that we already know will be switching from the American League to the National League this year. This is one of my favorite angles when looking for undervalued players in drafts. Not only do pitchers' stats improve in the NL because they get to face pitchers batting for themselves, but the overall level of competition in the NL has been weaker for at least the last four or five years. I already talked about Javier Vazquez here. Unfortunately, the list is pretty weak so far. There's Greg Smith, who I may write about in a future post, and there are a bunch of relievers. Unfortunately, the impact of league changes on relievers is generally much less...probably because good relievers don't get to face pitchers much anyway. Late in the game, the opposing pitcher is often a relievers, and is rarely going to be left in to bat for himself. Anyway, it's definitely a good idea to keep an eye out for pitchers who are traded from the AL to the NL between now and opening day, or those who sign in the NL as free agents. If the much rumored Greinke trade went through, that would be great news. Like Vazquez he'd be going from a hitter's park in the AL to a pitcher's park in the NL. That kind of change can make the difference between a pretty good fantasy pitcher and a star.

The Boring Part of Strategy

A number of new fantasy sports sites have popped in the past two years that have daily and weekly contests, rather than season long competitions. In some ways, these sites have a lot in common with poker sites, and the contests definitely appeal to those who like sports gambling. These sites include Fantasysportslive, Snapdraft, and the new kid on the block - Draft Hero (see information towards upper right corner of browser).

Strategy for these games places a heavy emphasis on your ability to adjust for context, and adjust player projections for factors such as park, homefield advantage, platoon differentials, and opponent. But the most single most important factor in your success is going to be something much more basic...and much more boring. Select your players as late as possible, so that you can make sure that they're in the starting lineup! This isn't a situation where you've got a full season to reach some sort of games or innings pitched limit. If a player isn't in the lineup, that's going to be compromise your chances in a big way, and with most players getting the occaisonal day off this can make a big difference over the course of the season.

Barry Zito 2009

I read somewhere that in the Bill James 2009 projections, Barry Zito is being forecasted to have an ERA of 3.94. My initial thought was that this is such an optimistic prediction that Bill must be lobbying for a job as Barry's agent. Zito hasn't had a FIP or xFIP below 4 in the past five years. He's a flyball pitcher, who never had a great strikeout rate or control, and his K/BB rate has been getting steadily worse for the past five years. In 2008, he struck out 5.7 batters per nine innings, while walking 4.8 batters per nine innings. That's pretty awful, and you neeed to have groundball rate around 55% to be at all effective with those kind of statistics. So is there any possible way that Zito could achieve a 3.94 ERA in 2009? Probably not, but it's possible. While Zito has had a steadily declining K/9 and increasing BB/9, the trend has been gradual. It's not completely inconceivable that his actual skills haven't changed during this time, and that the trend has been something of an illusion. If he reverts to his ratios of 2004 (K/9: 6.9, BB/9: 3.4), he would have a shot at 3.94 playing in a good pitchers' park. I certainly wouldn't bet on it though!

Chan Ho Park 2009

It seems like any assertion that Chan Ho Park is a decent major league pitcher has been treated as a joke for the past few years. Five straight years of earned run averages over 5.00 will do that to your reputation. That said, he's really not a bad pitcher. Last year's 79 strikeouts and 36 walks in 95 innings was pretty good. And he does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground. His 50.9% in 2008 was better than his career average, but he's almost always above 45%. The only problem is that Park has indicated that the Phillies will give him a chance in their starting rotation this year. He's likely to be slightly less effective as a starter (almost all pitchers are), and pitching his home games in Philadelphia obviously isn't good news. That said, if he's used very selectively, Park could have a little value in relatively deep daily transactions formats such as Yahoo. In formats such as FantasySportsLive and SnapDraft...no chance.

Jason Motte 2009

I think I have a new favorite player going into 2009. Jason Motte. Motte is a 26 year old former catcher, who has been pitching for only two years. The switch to pitching was clearly a good idea! At Memphis he complied an absurd 110 strikeouts and 26 walks in 66 2/3 innings. He didn't drop off at all once he reached the major leagues - 16 strikeouts and 3 walks in 11 innings! At worst he's going to be a dominant middle reliever for the next few years. He's got the potential to be better than that. If you're in a standard format Yahoo league, guys like this are crucial to your success. You can draft a team full of stud hitters, spot play underrated starting pitchers, and bring your ERA and WHIP down to reasonable levels, while adding to your strikeout totals and wins totals by using dominant relievers like Motte when they're home or in good pitchers' parks against relatively weak offenses.

Rafael Perez 2009

The Indians may have made a good move signing Kerry Wood to be their closer, but it's a shame that we won't get to see Rafael Perez close for a while. This guy is a really exceptional pitcher. For the past two years, he's averaged 10.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That's great under any circumstances. What's made it even better is that he doesn't suffer from the same failing that most other high K/9, low BB/9 pitchers do...he knows how to keep the ball on the ground. His groundball rates the past two years have been 52.6% and 57.1%. That's pretty incredible for a guy with his strikeout rate. Perez could be an exceptional closer if he gets the chance. In the meantime, he may be the best middle reliever in baseball.

Javier Vazquez 2009

I think Javier Vazquez is going to be terrific this year. Actually, I think Javier Vazquez will be terrific every year. I'm a sucker for great K/BB ratios. The WORST ratio of Vazquez' career was 150/60 in 198 innings in 2004. That's pretty amazing. In his worst season, he was (more or less) Chris Young. Most years he's been a lot better. I generally assume that pitchers are all going to revert to roughly the same rate of home runs per fly ball. In most cases, that's a pretty reasonable assumption, and even if we know that there is a small amount of skill in avoiding home runs on fly balls, we do fine making projections as if it was all luck. There are a few cases, such as Vazquez and Brett Myers, where we're doing so at our own risk. That said, he's already proven himself a very good pitcher with terrific K/BB rates. That's only going to get better with his move from a hitter's park in the American League to a slight pitcher's park in the National League. For those you who do futures prop bets (I don't...or at least, I haven't in the past), I'm guessing that Vazquez will be underrated enough to justify an investment in "Vazquez to win Cy Young" or whatever else is available.

Max Scherzer 2009

I'll start my 'new' blog off with a profile of one of my favorite sleeper picks for 2009: Max Scherzer. I think this guy is going to be somewhere between pretty good and really awesome. A lot of people know he's got potential, but despite that, the only mock draft I could find so far with full results listed in an easy to read format, he was the 200th pick. That's awfully low for a guy who struck out 66 and walked only 21 in 56 innings last year. His groundball rate was 41.7%, which isn't especially awful (although not great). He was better as a starter than as a reliever. That's unusual, and probably can be explained by the fact that most of his innings as a starter were in September. If you're an optimist, that means he was getting back as the year progressed. If you're a pessimist, that means he was beating up on inferior lineups in September. I'm an optimist...although I'm also the first to admit that a REALLY thorough analysis would check the lineups he faced in those games. Regardless, it looks like Scherzer will be very effective, strike out lots of hitters, and has superstar potential. The only thing not to like is his home park. Especially in game formats that allow complete roster turnover every day, pitching in a hitter's park presents you with a dilemma. Sometimes he gets home field advantage...but in a hitter's park. Other times he might be in a pitcher's park...but will be at a disadvantage because he's on the road. He's going to be good enough that he's worth using pretty often regardless.

I'm Back

Just wanted to announce that The Waiver Wire is officially re-opened for business. I'll be posting at least every few days (hopefully more) and will slightly broaden the original focus of the blog to include all aspects of daily transactions fantasy baseball - player profiles, strategy, etc. I'll also discuss the specifics of some of the daily format games that are out there, but will mostly steer clear of Rotohog (which I won last year) because I'll be writing a regular column about that for another (much more well known)web site.

Fantasy Fishing

Something else that might be interesting to anyone who stumbles across this blog...In 2008 FLW Fantasy Fishing gave out $2.3m in prizes (including $1m to the winner). I managed to take home $20 of Walmart gift cards and a roll of fishing line. Unfazed by my lack of success, I've started a blog dedicated to their 2009 competition. For updates on registration information, strategy, and news for the 2009 contest, visit my blog at Fantasy Fishing Blog

Update...Sort Of

I just realized that this site is still getting plenty of traffic even though I haven't updated it in over a year, so a few updates...

1. I won Rotohog Baseball 2008. First place. If anyone might be interested in staking or backing me in some high stakes leagues in 2009, send me an email.

2. If you're interested in statistical analysis of thoroughbred horse racing, visit my blog at Thoroughmetrics

Going to try online betting?

For those of us who haven't tried it yet, there are a ton of resources out there to help you with the task of online betting. As with fantasy sports, there are great statistical resources at a variety of sites where you can get player profiles on guys like Albert Pujols. You'll also want a source for the baseball line. Good luck in your pursuit of profit!

Daily Projections

Unfortunately, I've let this blog go dormant...but the good news is that there's a great new fantasy baseball website that I'd consider the 'spiritual descendant' of The Waiver Wire. I definitely recommend checking out Daily Projections!