Rich Hill 2009

On the surface, Rich Hill looks like a good high risk, high reward pick to make in the late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts in 2009. But once you look a little deeper, it becomes apparent that this isn't the case. At his best, Hill offers strikeouts. Lots of them. The problem is, that's about all he offers. His control was never terrific. He's an extreme flyball pitcher. He'll be 29 years old on opening day, so he's at the point in his career where players don't tend to make dramatic overnight improvements. Then consider his 2008 season, where he completely lost the ability to throw the ball over home plate. Pitching at four different levels (including rookie ball), Hill averaged almost a walk per inning. When pitchers suffer such a complete loss of control (often refered to as 'Steve Blass Disease') it tends to be mental rather than physical, and also tends to be very hard to overcome. Hill is someone I would stay away from, no matter how good a "bargain" he appears to be, until he is able to string together three or four consecutive starts in the major leagues with low walk totals.

Paul Maholm 2009

Paul Maholm is a pretty good pitcher who tends to fly under the radar when it comes to most discussions. Because of his ability to induce groundballs (between 53% and 54% each of the last three years), Maholm doesn't need an outstanding strikeout to walk ratio to be successful. That said, he's been improving, and last year struck out 6.3 batters per games while walking only 2.9. That numbers make him a very solid starting pitcher, and at 26 years old he could still improve substantially. Particularly in formats that don't place an emphasis on high strikeout totals, Maholm is worth considering for your team in 2009 now that the Pirates offense isn't the joke that it was for many years.

Draftbug

You can't miss the ads for Draftbug on my website, but if you're new around here, you may not realize that the site belongs to me. I'd like to invite you to try it out. We're offering daily fantasy contests along the lines of Snapdraft or Fantasysportslive. Most contests last one day only and require you to pick a team within a limited salary cap. I know that most of the readers here are more interested in baseball, but we're running basketball contests right now and will be adding hockey soon. I'm not sure how long this will last, but at the moment we're also giving anyone who registers 4,000 player 'points' which allow entry in $4 worth of real money contests. So you can use those to try the format out, and possibly build up a decent bankroll in preparation for baseball season. If you do decide to deposit a more substantial amount of money, you can use credit card or Paypal. Unlike sports betting, Draftbug is completely legal. Registration is free and takes less than a minute. I'd love to get everyone's feedback on how to make the games even better, so please send me an email (or post a comment here) after you try it out.

Felix Hernandez 2009

This is an important year for Felix Hernandez. His component statistics have been in a very gradual decline since he first arrived in the Major Leagues as a 19 year old. The decline has been very subtle though, and isn't sharp enough to be sure that his skills have changed at all. Of more concern is a variety of discussion that his approach has changed and his stuff isn't quite what it used to be. I'm skeptical whether there's been any real change. The guy is still putting up terrific numbers as a 22 year old in the Major Leagues, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he his 2009 statistics made a leap forward from last year's (K/9: 7.9, BB/9: 3.6, GB%: 52.1). All of those represented career worsts for Hernandez. One thing that may limit Hernandez' value somewhat is that wins could be hard to come by, with a weak lineup in Seattle, and an unresolved closer situation.

Jon Garland 2009

Jon Garland hasn't been much of a major league pitcher, but with the announcement of his signing by the Arizona Diamondbacks, his career should be safe for now. Although Arizona is a tough park for pitchers, that will more than be compensated for by the move from the American League to the National League. Garland has consistently had strikeout rates between 4.0 and 4.9, with good but not exceptional control. His groundball rate has fluctuated from year to year. If he can match last year's 49.9%, then he'll be moderately successful. If he reverts to 2007's 39.4% then his results are going to be pretty. On balance, pitching in the National League, Garland is not likely to quite bad enough to be worth targeting with your hitters in leagues with daily transactions, but he certainly isn't someone who I'd want any my team (regardless of format).

Adjusting Projections By Component

As I've discussed before, the key to success in games where you can change your entire lineup every day is to make the proper adjustments for context when projecting player performance. While important in any fantasy baseball format, this becomes the single most important skill in games where you have the opportunity to adjust to the specific context of each game.

There are so many factors to take into account, that the 'model' you build to predict each day's statistics is never going to be perfect. For example, are you going to use weather as a factor? If so, does temperature matter? Wind speed? Wind direction? Precipitation? Humidity? The odds are, you're not going to bother with any of this...although each factor that you include (if you make the right adjustments) is going to make your projections every so slightly more accurate.

One area where I generally try not to take shortcuts though is that I will generally make my adjustments by component, rather than simply taking a player's projected value or points and adjusting that directly.

To take an extreme example of why this is important, let's use the Mets' new ballpark - Citi Field. Some people (including me) believe that it will be extremely difficult to hit home runs at Citi Field, but that the park is likely to inflate triples significantly. For argument's sake, let's assume it decreases home runs by 25%, increases triples by 25%, and overall decreases runs by 10%. Let's say it also decreases overall points scoring in the format we care about by 10%. Think about how this is going to affect Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes. Is it really appropriate to just adjust everything down by 10% for both players? Not only will Delgado be hurt more by the decrease in home runs, but he's not going to benefit at all from the increase in triples. Meanwhile, Reyes will gain so many triples, that it will almost offset the loss of home runs. Realistically, the park will probably reduce Delgado's value by close to 15%, while reducing Reyes by less than 5%. The only way to properly reflect that in our model is if we make all of our adjustments at the level of specific component statistics.

The same approach is needed when adjusting for anything...opponent, weather, home field advantage, etc.

Neftali Feliz 2009

Neftali Feliz is probably at least a year away from the major leagues, but he's probably the top pitching prospect that I haven't already discussed this offseason. After putting up dominant numbers at the Texas Rangers' A level affiliate (106 strikeouts and 28 walks in 82.0 innings), Feliz moved up to AA where he struggled a little with his control (47 strikeouts and 23 walks in 45.1 innings). That's still very good for a 20 year old in his first shot at AA, and I'm optimistic that he'll improve on both the strikeout rate and walk rate if he starts 2009 at AA. Although I don't have access to his groundball rate, I suspect that it's very good as he's only allowed 5 minor league home runs in almost 200 innings. Wherever he starts the season, Feliz should end up at AAA at some point this year and will likely go through a similar adjustment with his control as he did after his previous promotion.

Huston Street 2009

Huston Street is expected to start the 2009 season as the Colorado Rockies closer. If things go the way I expect, he should end it that way too. Although Street's 2008 numbers (K/9: 9.3, BB/9: 3.6, GB%: 36.2) weren't quite as good as the previous year (K/9: 12.2, BB/9: 2.3, GB%: 40.0), they were still very good. With the limited number of innings relievers pitch, that kind of year to year variance should be expected, and isn't really reason for concern. Of slightly more concern is the perception that Street struggled, and that Manny Corpas would be an adequate replacement. Street has to be downgraded slightly in traditional full season leagues because of the risk that if he has a few bad outings he could lose his job, but in daily leagues he should be considered a top notch closer.

Nelson Cruz 2009

Nelson Cruz is a popular pick as a sleeper in 2009, and with good reason. Based only on his major league performances over the past few years, he would appear to be a slightly overrated 'sleeper', and his outstanding 2008 performance (in his age 27 year) would look like an outlier. But his performance at AAA has been excellent for years, and has reached the 'absurdly good' level over the past two years. Combined in 2007 and 2008 at AAA Cruz has hit .345 with 52 home runs and 144 RBIs in 545 at basts. Throw in 25 stolen bases, and you've got yourself a fantasy super star. The outlier for Cruz was his performance in his first couple of tries at the major league level. Some people will point to his performance last year and say that it was simply his '27 year old breakout/spike', but the idea that players tend to have breakouts at 27 is based on a misunderstanding of the research. Hitters tend to improve fastest at much younger ages, with the improvement generally becoming more and more gradual until they level out at a 'peak' at 27 and start gradually declining. There is nothing typical about Cruz's 'peak' in stats at the major league level last year, and once we look at his minor league statistics we realize it's not even a peak, but in line with what he's been doing for several years. Cruz is going to be a particularly good deal in daily leagues like Rotohog, Snapdraft, Draftbug, and Fantasysportslive, where you can just use him at home in Texas, where his performance will likely make him one of the best bargains in baseball.

Freddy Garcia 2009

The Mets recently signed Freddy Garcia to a minor league contract, with large incentives built in based on how much time he spends in their major league rotation. This seems like a good move. Garcia was a pretty good pitcher before losing more than a year to injury, and his return late last season was moderately successful as he struck out 12 batters and walked 6 in 15 innings in the Major Leagues. Certainly not enough sample size to know that he's going to be as good as pre-surgery, but not bad at all. Pitching in the National League in what I expect to be a terrific pitchers' park, Garcia will have a good chance to be successful if he wins a spot in the Mets' starting rotation in 2009.

Chad Qualls 2009

Chad Qualls is considered the leading candidate to be the Arizona Diamondbacks closer in 2009. Frankly, there shouldn't be any other candidates. Qualls is a terrific pitcher. Even if his incredible 2008 (K/9: 9.2, BB/9: 2.3, GB%: 58.3) was a bit of a fluke, a reversion to his 2007 statistics (K/9: 8.8, BB/9: 2.8, GB%: 56.7)would still make him a terrific pitcher and an outstanding closer. Given Qualls' success in a limited time as closer at the end of 2008, I think he's going to be handed the role and won't relinquish it. Given how far Qualls has fallen in some mock drafts, he's definitely someone that I'd be targeting for this season.

Jeff Francis 2009

After an excellent 2007 season (K/9: 7.0, BB/9: 2.7, GB%:44.4) Jeff Francis took a major step back in 2008 as his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 5.7. There was speculation that his shoulder problems were the cause, and that theory was supported when he was shut down for good in mid-September. Unfortunately, Francis' 2008 strikeout rate is much more in line with what he's done the rest of his career, so there's plenty of reason to believe that his 2007 season was the outlier, and that we shouldn't expect a repeat. Francis performance early in 2009 will bear watching, and as always we'll need to be open to changing our opinions based on the latest evidence, but in ranking Francis for drafts, I'd project him for a K/9 rate around 6.0, which makes him a mediocre pitcher. If I'm going to draft a pitcher with his overall stats, I'd rather take a less skilled pitcher who's putting up the same stats in a better pitchers' park. That way I can spot start them when they're at home and in effect get half of a much better pitcher.

Franklin Morales 2009

In limited innings, Franklin Morales went from good in 2007 (K/9: 6.3, BB/9: 3.3, GB%: 54.9) to really, really bad in 2008 (K/9: 2.9, BB/9: 5.5, GB%: 40.0). The dropoff was so extreme that it was clear there was some physical issue, particularly because his average fastball velocity dropped from 92.5 to 90.9. It is being reported now that Morales is over some back problems he suffered from last year, has fixed his mechanics, and is consistently throwing in the 92 to 94 MPH range. If Morales continues to be healthy and throw well in Spring Training, I'd consider him an excellent late round sleeper in deep leagues. One of the keys to watch for is his groundball rate, since that's where a lot of his 2007 value came from. Morales turned 23 yesterday, so there's still the potential for rapid improvement in his performance.

Correction

Since several people have commented on it...I incorrectly wrote that Jorge De La Rosa had been signed by the Royals for 2009. De La Rosa actually remains on the Rockies. Given the fact that Coors Field is not as extreme a hitters' park as it used to be, this is probably better for him than a switch to the American League would have been.

Kendry Morales 2009

Kendry Morales has been a major disappointment in 377 career at bats in the Major Leagues. On the other hand, he continues to excel in the minors, putting up high batting averages with good power every year in AA and AAA. While the AAA numbers have been helped by his home park , at 25 years old there's no reason Morales shouldn't succeed in the majors given another chance. Morales doesn't walk much, which is certainly a strike against him, but he also doesn't strike out a lot which is part of the reason he should be able to hit for high batting averages. Morales should get an opportunity to start the 2009 season as Angels starting first baseman. I expect him to hit around .300 with fifteen to twenty home runs. He's not likely to be worth using in Rotohog, but should have some value in most other formats.

James McDonald 2009

James McDonald is the Dodgers top pitching prospect, and one of the better prospects in baseball. He's got an outside chance of winning a job as the fifth starting at the major league level. In 2007 he was dominant in high A and AA ball, strikout out 168 and walking only 37 in 134.2 innings. Unfortunately, he wasn't quite as dominant in AA in 2008, striking out 113 and walking 46 in 118.2 innings. He did rebound with 22.1 great innings at AAA, striking out 28 and walking 7. Anytime I see a declining strikeout rate in a young pitcher I'm somewhat concerned, but in this case the decline wasn't great enough to be sure what it means. Its very possible that McDonald's ability lies somewhere between what he did in 2007 and 2008, although its certainly possible that he's lost some effectiness. Overall, I'd expect him to have a decent strikeout rate in the majors in 2009 (let's say 7.0 K/9), but to struggle with his control (maybe 4.5 BB/9). As with any young player, improvement is not only possible, but relatively likely.

Aaron Heilman 2009

For 2009, Aaron Heilman definitely falls into the 'wait and see' category. He won't be worth a draft pick at the start of the season except in the very deepest leagues. Among the factors working against him are switching from the National League to the American League, switching from pitching in relief to starting, and the fact that he was just plain awful in 2008. While his strikeout rate was better than it had been the past few years, his control was terrible (5.0 BB/9) and his groundball rate decreased to 40.8%. If Heilman can get his control back, then he's likely to be a moderately effective starting pitcher. However, his upside is limited, and usually such a drastic change in control either indicates health problems or mental problems...neither of which is good news for his fantasy future.

Brandon Morrow 2009

The Mariners have apparently announced that both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman will be part of their rotation in 2009. We'll leave the question of who is going to close for them for another day and take a look at how Morrow is likely to fare as a starter. Morrow has two important things going for him. He had a fantastic strikeout rate in 2008 (10.9 per nine innings) and he's only 24 years old. However, he was very wild, walking 4.9 batters per nine innings. Generally when pitchers move from relief to starting, they're not quite as effective, so I think it's reasonable to project Morrow as striking out just about a batter per inning, and walking the same number of batters as last year or slightly more. Let's say he'll have K/BB per nine innings of 9.0/5.0. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, so that's a strong negative too. For a comparable pitcher, those numbers are not much different than what Jorge De La Rosa did last year. Morrow is likely to go too early in most drafts based on the amount of pre-season attention he's getting. While I think he'll be somewhat effective, he's really going to need to improve his control to become very good.

Looking For Affiliates

I'm currently looking for affiliates for Draftbug.com. If you're interested in earning some income, send me an email and I'll provide all the details. The basic deal is you refer people to Draftbug, and for each person who signs up, you'll earn a percentage of whatever they spend on the site in the future for as long as they have an account. Obviously if you already have a website this is a great opportunity, but I've also got some ideas that I don't have time to work on for new sites that could be created, and I'd be happy to 'coach' anybody who needs help with some of the technical details or doesn't know how to publicize the site to generate traffic. So if you've got a little free time and either like to write about sports, know how to program, or don't mind gathering data manually, there are some opportunities.

Matt Holliday 2009

Among the hitters likely to go early in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, Matt Holliday is (by far) the most likely to disappoint. Obviously, the biggest factor in the likely decline of his numbers is that he'll be going from a great hitters' park in Colorado to a poor one in Oakland. But there are a number of other minor contributing factors. He's 29 years old...so that's neutral or very slightly negative. In general, the American League is tougher than the National League, so that's another very slight negative. His 28 stolen bases in 2008 were FAR more than he had in previous years. While his high percentage of success should encourage him (and his managers) to keep running, he's going to a team that isn't known for its aggression on the basepaths, so it seems likely that he'll steal less bases in 2009 as well. While I don't generally put much stock in situational splits (because of somewhat limited sample size), Holliday does have a much larger than normal home/road split in his numbers of the course of his career. Parks can favor some hitters more than others, and seems possible that Holliday has been benefiting even more than other hitters from Coors Field. Overall, I think there are a lot of reason to expect Holliday to be less valuable this year. He's still going to be good, but I don't see a lot of reason to expect him to put up numbers much different from a guy like Nick Markakis who may be picked twenty to thirty picks later in most drafts.