Brad Penny 2009

Brad Penny in 2009 will be a player to stay away from at all costs. Not only will he meet some of the criteria...he'll meet just about all of the criteria:

-Already overrated.
-Changing leagues from NL to AL
-Going from pitchers' park to hitters' park
-Declining strikeout rate (from 7.1 in 2006 to 4.6 in 2008)
-Increasing walk rate (from 2.1 in 2005 to 3.8 in 2008)
-Injury issues

Some people may recommend him as a 'sleeper' who is likely to rebound "if healthy", and win a lot of games because of Boston's offense. Don't be fooled. Even if he is healthy and pitches as well as he did in 2006 and 2007, he's going to struggle in the much tougher American League and pitching half his games in Boston.

Tommy Hanson 2009

Tommy Hanson's performance in the recently concluded Arizona Fall League has turned him into one of the hottest prospects in baseball for 2009. Hanson became the first pitcher ever to win the AFL's MVP award, as he struck out an amazing 49 batters in 28.2 innings, while walking only 7 batters. He spent his time in the league working on his newly developed changeup, and apparently it's an effective one! Hanson's previous minor league numbers were good, but didn't suggest that he was capable of anything like this yet - 2008 combined A and AA he struck out 163 and walked 52 in 138 innings. That's very good, but suggests a pitcher who needs to improve his control before dominating at AAA and in the majors. In addition, his homerun rates have tended to be a little high, indicating that he likely is a flyball pitcher. That said, Hanson certainly is ready for success at AAA (if not the majors), and if his performance in the AFL was really because of his new pitch (and a real improvement in his control), and not just a fluke, then he's going to be an excellent pitcher in the near future.

Baseball Happenings

Another great baseball site to let people know about is Baseball Happenings. Like others that I've mentioned here, I'm adding a link to it on the right side of the screen so you can find it easily later.

Fantasy Baseball 365

One really good site that focuses on fantasy baseball is Fantasy Baseball 365. Charlie's posts tend to be very detailed, so there's a lot of great material to comb through if you haven't visited his site before.

Who Will Close For The Rangers

Unless they sign a free agent (a distinct possibility), the race for Texas Rangers closer in 2009 comes down to Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson. Personally, I wouldn't be thrilled with either if I was a Rangers fan. Wilson clearly doesn't have the skill set to be a reliable closer, with neither an overpowering strikeout rate (K/9: 8.5 in 2007 and 7.4 in 2008) and mediocre control (BB/9: 4.5 in 2007 and 4.9 in 2008). Francisco has the advantage of a great strikeout rate (2008 K/9: 12.1), and if he can maintain even the moderate level of control that he attained in 2008 (BB/9: 3.8) he'll be excellent. Unfortunately, I think a small amount of regression in both areas is likely, making him a slightly scare proposition when you consider his tendency to allow a lot of fly balls. He's still the right choice here, and given the fact that most teams prefer to have righty closers, Texas will probably do the right thing.

Who Will Close For The Cubs?

With the departure of Kerry Wood, and the trade for Kevin Gregg, the Chicago Cubs now have two potential closers for 2009. I've seen speculation that Gregg will close, and I've seen speculation that Carlos Marmol will close. Strangely, everyone who writes about it seems quite sure of their opinion. I'd say that this one is very much up in the air. Before I did any research, I was assuming that it would be very clear that what the Cubs SHOULD do is make Marmol the closer. After looking at the numbers, it's not as clear cut as I expected. What it really comes down to is whether you think Kevin Gregg's weak 2008 numbers (K/9: 7.6, BB/9: 4.8) were simply a bad season, or a sign of declining skills. While it was his worst performance in the past five years, it wasn't quite far enough out of line to be sure that something was wrong. If he gets his K/9 up to the 8.0 to 8.5 range, while lowering his BB/9 to 3.0 or slightly above, then he's not much worse (if any) than Marmol, who strikes out a ton of batters, but has awful control (over 5.0 BB/9 for his career) and appears to be a really extreme flyball pitcher.

Rotoscoop

For the most part, I stick to baseball on The Waiver Wire. About the farthest afield I'll stray is to discuss some principles that can be applied to a variety of fantasy sports. One good blog that is more seasonal in nature (following whatever sports is most active at the time) is Rotoscoop.

Mike Napoli 2009

A good source of sleepers or players ready for breakout seasons is those who have put up good numbers in a limited number of at bats. Mike Napoli definitely fits the bill going into 2009. In only 227 at bats (274 plate appearances), he hit .273 with 20 home runs, and even had 7 steals. While those numbers are probably a bit of a statistical fluke, he has now hit 46 career home runs in just over 700 at bats. Given that he's already 27 years old, he's unlikely to improve any further, but who cares. Given 450 at bats he could hit .250 with 30 homers and 10 steals. That's incredible production for a catcher, and especially one likely to slip to the middle rounds in most drafts. The best news of all is that the Angels are supposedly looking for ways to get him more playing time, even if they have to use him at DH sometimes.

Fernando Rodney 2009

I was surprised to see recently that as of right now, Fernando Rodney is still anticipated to be the Detroit Tigers closer in 2009. Really? Haven't they figured out yet that relying on marginally effective pitchers who have trouble staying healthy as their closer isn't such a good idea? At his best Rodney is overpower, if a bit wild. He can strike out more than a batter per inning, which means he'll always be ALMOST dominating. At the same time, if he walks six batters per inning as he did last season, he's going to allow a lot of runs. Complicating any projection for him is the fact that his groundball rate has ranged from a weak 40.2% (in 2008) to as high as 56.5% (in 2006). Where his 'true' skill lies in that range will make a big difference in whether he can get the job done as a closer for an entire season. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Phil Hughes 2009

Depending on how things shake out over the Winter, it looks like Phil Hughes may end up as the Yankees #6 starting pitcher in 2009. That would probably mean some time in AAA and some time filling in for injured starters in the majors. That's not what I had in mind when I wrote about Hughes prior to the 2007 season. I described him as the real deal and predicted that he'd be an effective major league starter by the All-Star break. Actually, those predictions were right, but in an injury plagued year, he took a step back this year as he only managed somewhat ineffective 34 major league innings. I think Hughes is a pitcher who should be watched closely in Spring Training. In particular, wait to see what his strikeout rate is. Even in limited sample sizes of 15-20 innings, that can be a good indicator as to health and general effectiveness. If his rate is up near one per inning, then he's likely to pitch well at whatever level he's placed. If it's down near 5 or 6 then something may be wrong - whether health related or mechanics related (as some surmised last year).

Draft Hero...Again

This is basically a re-post from last week, since there are lots of new visitors to The Waiver Wire...

For those who like the NFL or NBA (or who just like free money), sign up for Draft Hero (info on right side of screen) and put "zoobird" (without quotes) in the promotional code field. They're giving 4,000 'player points' to each person who registers, which allows entry in $4 worth of real money contests. You get the player points whether you deposit money or not, and can use it to enter both 'salary cap' and 'live draft' competitions.

Thanks to those free player points, I'm now $10.80 richer than I was last week, thanks to some good contest results. Not much maybe, but its always nice to build a free bankroll ahead of baseball season.

Heath Bell 2009

Two seasons ago I wrote a post predicting that Heath Bell should put up an ERA about 2 full runs better than his career mark (at the time) of 4.92. The prediction was on target, as he actually put up a 2.02 ERA with brilliant component stats (K/9: 10.9, BB/9: 3.2, GB%: 58.8%!!!). He was very good again in 2008, although not quite as dominant, as his K/9 dropped to 8.5 and his GB% dropped to 45.5%. My guess is that his true ability is more or less the midpoint between the two season, which will make him a very, very solid closer in 2009, as he takes over for the departing Trevor Hoffman.

Dan Wheeler 2009

Dan Wheeler should begin 2009 as the Tampa Bay Rays closer. He's coming off a 2008 season in which he had a WHIP of 0.99 almost equally the career best 0.98 that he set with Houston in 2005. He had a good season, but there is some reason for concern. Hidden below the solid ERA (3.12) and WHIP, his strikeout rate deteriorated to 7.7...the lowest its been since 2004 by a wide margin. Meanwhile his grounball rate dropped to 28.4%. That's one of the lowest I've ever seen. So are his worsening component stats indicative of a problem, or just a one year blip? It's hard to tell. Given the small number of innings that relievers pitch (66.1 in Wheeler's case) there do tend to be larger one year fluctuations in their numbers. I would suggest watching his first month or so to see if there's any continued slippage in his K/9 rate, or whether it rebounds to its previous level around 9.

Jose Arredondo 2009

I've seen several sites list both Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields as potential replacements for Francisco Rodriguez as the Angels' closer in 2009. While I suspect that Shields will get first shot at the role, his control has been a little shaky the past two years, so Arredondo may get a chance to close at some point in 2009. If he does, he should do fine. In 2008, he struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5. That would be good, but coupled with his 51.2% groundball rate, it's excellent. His minor league numbers are roughly in-line with what he accomplished in the majors, although they seem to indicate the potential for slightly worse control.

Joel Hanrahan 2009

Joel Hanrahan is expected to close for the Washington Nationals in 2009. If he's as good as he was in 2008 (K/9: 9.9, BB/9: 4.5, GB%: 42.6%) then he should be pretty effective, and a likely bargain in the late rounds of most drafts. I'm skeptical though. This is a guy who was so bad in the majors (K/9: 6.8, BB/9: 6.0, GB%: 30.6%) in 2007 that he was one of my favorite targets for opposing hitters. His minor league numbers are very consistent with his 2007 performance (or lack thereof). So while he may have suddenly figured out how to pitch as a 26 year old, I do expect some regression. Something like a strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings and a walk rate of 4.5 per nine innings, with a groundball rate of around 40% seems reasonable. That could be good enough to get the job done as a closer, but I definitely expect him to go through some rough patches.

Why Rake Matters For Fantasy Sports

Rake is something that poker players generally pay a lot more attention to than fantasy sports participants. But if you're serious about making money at fantasy sports, you should give it some consideration.

If you take a look at the payouts for most fantasy sports sites, rake (the difference between the total entry fees for a contest and the total amount paid out in prizes) varies from 10% (or even lower) to as high as 30% or 40%. This makes a moderate difference in how profitable full season fantasy sports events will be, but in general the format and quality of competition are going to be even more important in those events.

However, in daily contest games, the amount of rake is absolutely critical. Think about what will happen to the money of an 'average' player who starts with a bankroll of $100. Let's compare two games...one with 10% rake (like Drafthero) and another with 20% rake (like Snapdraft). Each player uses their full bankroll to enter contests and gets an 'average' return (90% for Drafthero and 80% for Snapdraft). So the first 'round' of bets they each bet $100. Next round the Drafthero player bets $90 and the Snapdraft player bets $80. Next round the numbers are $81 and $64. After 22 rounds, the Snapdraft player has less than the $1 he needs to enter a contest. The Drafthero player doesn't run out until the 44th round. The Snapdraft player will have only bet a total of $495 compared to the Drafthero player's $990.

Obviously, the impact is even greater for a winning player. The same person who is breakeven at Snapdraft is going to have a 10% return on investment at Drafthero, and can make a ton of money.

Greg Reynolds 2009

One of the keys to success in any daily transactions fantasy baseball game is figuring out who the truly awful pitchers are, and using hitters who are playing against them. Taking advantage of these matchups isn't quite as easy as it sounds though, since not only do you have to identify the worst of the worth, and evaluate exactly how great the impact of their badness is, but most of them don't last long in the major leagues, and are quickly replaced by minor leagues and converted relievers, some of whom are decent pitchers and some who aren't any better. Also, in many cases, the worst statistics are put up by young pitchers who may improve, or pitchers suffering from injuries, whose health may improve over time. So you need to pay close attention to whether the best indicator statistics (K/9 and BB/9) are showing improvement.

That said, it's always good to go into the season knowing which pitchers to target. One of my favorites in 2009, assuming he's in the major leagues, is Gregory Reynolds. Not only was he really, really bad in 2008 (K/9: 2.9, BB/9: 3.4, GB%: 45.1%), but you get the added bonus that he pitches in Colorado! His strikeout rates in the minor leagues were also quite low, so really the only real hope for him to be any good is if he improves a lot AND it turns out that he was unlucky with his groundball rate in 2008 and that his true rate is above 50%.

Coincidence? I Think Not!

A few days ago, I wrote a post about adjusting strategy for contest size in daily contests. I thought it was one of my better recent posts. It happens that I used some of my free player points at DraftHero to enter their "50 person" NFL contest yesterday. Because the site is so new, only 15 people entered, so my odds were pretty good from the beginning. Its worth mentioning that I'm pretty clueless when it comes to the NFL. I like football, but just don't follow it very closely. I used the high variance strategy I discussed in the blog post though, picking 5 players from New Orleans...and came in 2nd out of 15 people...and $9 richer. The strategy I described really does work (although I obviously got lucky to succeed on my first try) in games like Draft Hero, Fantasy Sports Live, and Snap Draft. If you're interested in signing up for Draft Hero and getting free player points that allow entry in $4 of real money contests, use my promotional code ("zoobird") and go to Draft Hero.

Josh Fields 2009

It appears that the White Sox are going to be relying on Josh Fields to rebound from his dismal year last year and be a major contributor in 2009. The only problem is...rebound to what? While Fields has good power and draws his fair share of walks, neither asset is good enough to offset his extremely high strikeout totals and the impact those have on his batting average. His minor (and major) league record shows that he's always going to struggle to reach a .250 batting average, and at 26 years old he's not likely to improve too much more. Fields is probably going to be one of those guys who will always be a 1 for 27 slump away from being sent down to AAA.

John Lannan 2009

John Lannan is a pretty good example of why you should always be prepared for young pitchers to improve. When he reached the majors for part of 2007 (at the age of 22), he was so bad that I would look for hitters who were opposing him that day. In 34.2 innings, he struck out only 10, and walked 17 batters. It doesn't get much worse than that. Even with a 50% groundball rate, he was a truly terrible pitcher. His minor league numbers weren't much better once adjusted for the weaker competition. Actually, even his college numbers were awful, other than his final season. However, he apparently figured things out in 2008, and put up respectable numbers. In 182 innings, he struck out 117 batter and walked 72. That's not great, but with a 54% groundball rate, and pitching in a good pitchers park, he's now a perfectly ok major league pitcher, and no longer worth targeting in daily transactions leagues. He'll be 24 years old until the last few days of the 2009 season, so there's still a lot of room (and time) for further improvement.