NFBC Slow Draft Mistake Picks

A few people have asked me which picks I considered mistakes by my opponents in the NFBC slow draft. I'll focus on some of the ones where I think that clearly superior options were still available at the same positions.

Ubaldo Jimenez before Hamels, Peavy, and Carpenter.
Matt Cain before Lackey, Billingsley, and Anderson.
David Aardsma before Jenks, Soriano, and Qualls.
Jason Frasor before Lidge, Gonzalez, Nunez, and Wood.
Jeff Niemann before Lilly, Buchholz, and Kuroda.

Someone also asked me about my strategy for closers. This was a case where I went for quantity over quality. Here are my picks since the last update:

Rd. 13, Pick #189: Nolan Reimold
Rd. 14 Pick #202: Kerry Wood
Rd. 15 Pick #219: Kevin Gregg
Rd. 16 Pick #232: Juan Rivera

In a league where the average team is going to have only two closers, I think having Soriano, Wood, and Gregg should work out fine.

Matt Wieters 2010

One player who I really wasn't expecting to get in my NFBC slow draft was Matt Wieters. I had seen the early round results of a few similar drafts where he went in the late 40s or 50s and assumed that's where his ADP would be. When he was still available at pick 69, I jumped at the opportunity to take him. The more I think about Wieters, the more I like his chances to be a top three catcher in 2010. Last year in the Major Leagues, he hit .288 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. Projected to a full season, that's not bad at all and would probably make him about the 6th or 7th best catcher. The thing is, he was MUCH better the previous two years in the Minor Leagues. He hit for more power (27 home runs in 437 combined at bats) and a better batting average (.345 in 2007 and .365 in 2008). His strikeout to walk ratio gives a clue why his average suffered such a decline in the majors as he had only 28 walks and 86 strikeouts, for a guy who walked more than he struck out during his minor league career. Expect the strikeouts to drop, and the average and home runs to increase in 2010, as the 23 year old Wieters is likely to improve substantially.

Catching Up On My NFBC Slow Draft

Here's the latest update on my team in the NFBC slow draft league. Keep in mind that this is a 15 team, 45 round draft, and that there will be no in season trading or free agent acquisition.

Rd. 1, #9: Prince Fielder
Rd. 2, #22: Jose Reyes
Rd. 3, #39: Brian Roberts
Rd. 4, #52: Aramis Ramirez
Rd. 5, #69: Matt Wieters
Rd. 6, #82: Javier Vazquez
Rd. 7, #99: Carlos Quentin
Rd. 8, #112: Chad Billingsley
Rd. 9, #129: Garret Jones
Rd. 10, #142: Kurt Suzuki
Rd. 11, #159: Rafael Soriano
Rd. 12, #172: Roy Oswalt

Overall, the guys in my league appear to be doing a good job with their drafts, although there have been a number of pitching picks in the past two or three rounds that I think were mistakes. That's not surprisingly, since I generally form strong opinions on pitchers, while being more of a crowd follower when it comes to evaluating hitters.

It's also worth noting that the NFBC released ADP ranking from earlier slow drafts yesterday or the day before, which may help people avoid reaching for players who could be drafted many rounds later.

Designing a New Scoring Format

Yesterday, one of The Waiver Wire's readers asked the following question about designing a new scoring format: "If one were to start/join a fantasy league that only used one or two categories for hitters and pitchers which categories would you choose?"

The truth is, I would probably choose something funky that I think I could forecast better than others - for example, home runs allowed for pitchers. I assume that's not really what Mike was looking for though. I'd guess he's looking for categories that would have some relation to the actual 'quality' of player, and would produce player values that have some similarity to more traditional leagues.

With that as the goal, I think you'd generally need two categories to create a balanced game. For hitters, I'd probably go with batting average and home runs, although I suppose that replacing batting average with steals would work pretty well also.

For pitchers I'd use ERA and either wins or strikeouts. That would require players to go for 'quantity' as well as 'quality' and would eliminate most of the potential gimmick strategies.

Mike went on to suggest OPS as a potential single category for hitters. That would work fine, as long as there's a requirement for players to reach some minimum number of at bats. Likewise, ERA could be used for pitchers, as long as there's an innings pitched minimum.

NFBC Slow Draft: First Four Rounds

A few days ago, I mentioned the slow draft I'm participating in at NFBC. It's a 15 team league, and we're about half way through the fifth round right now. I'll have to be careful not to discuss my plans in too much detail, because my competitors are aware of this blog. I'll talk more about my plan for the season after the draft is over (which should be in about a month). That said, here are my first four picks:

Rd. 1, #9: Prince Fielder
Rd. 2, #22: Jose Reyes
Rd. 3, #39: Brian Roberts
Rd. 4, #52: Aramis Ramirez

I've already had two players get taken one pick before my turn - McCann in the 3rd round and Lind in the 5th round. That said, I'm reasonably happy with how things are going. I wanted either Fielder or Cabrera in the 1st round, and both ended up being available. I was hoping Reyes would make it to me in the 2nd round, and have no idea who I would have taken if he wasn't.

Minor League Fantasy Baseball Simulation

For those interested in something a little different, Box Baseball offers 'fantasy baseball simulations'. My undestanding is that you pick teams at the beginning of the season, and then watch simulated games using your players, with one game played out each day of the season. What should make this really compelling is that they've now added minor leagues to the game, making this (I believe) the first minor league fantasy baseball game of any sort. Use WAIVER as the promo code when you register, and you'll get a $10 discount.

I just registered for my first 'real' league of the 2010 season. It's a 'Draft Champions' slow draft league at NFBC. That means a 45 round draft where we can't pick up or drop players during the season, but we can move players in and out of our starting lineup. The league is almost full, so we should be getting started later today or tomorrow. As I make my picks over the next 2-3 weeks, I'll be talking about them here.

If any of you are tax lawyers or accountants, and are interested in collaborating on a tax related fantasy sports article, let me know. Particularly for someone interested in potentially picking up some business for a private tax preparation business, this should be a great opportunity for exposure.

Replacement Value and Scarcity in Fantasy Baseball

Like most complex topics, I think most people try to oversimplify the idea of 'replacement value'. That results in projections and draft strategies that end up taking it into account incorrectly. To avoid the pitfalls associated with the concept, you should keep one thing in mind all the time: when I'm valuing or choosing a player, what is the relative value of the players I may end up with instead? During the season, there's a simple way to approach this. If I need to pick up a player at any given position, how good is the best player available on the waiver wire at that position? That's the replacement value to use for players at that position (for example, when I've evaluating potential trades). On the other hand, things are more complex when you're looking at replacement value as part of your draft preparation. You don't care about the quality of players who will end up on the waiver wire post-draft, because those are not that players you're going to end up with if you don't draft 'Player A' at a position. Instead, you should be thinking about position scarcity. What players are you likely to end up with at the same position later on in the draft if you pass up the player you're evaluating now? If you were going to attempt to quantify it (which would be a very difficult task), the scarcity or replacement value you cared about would be something like the average quality of remaining draft-worthy players at that position, weighted by the likelihood of each player ending up on your team. Obviously, most of you are NOT going to try to measure that, but you can instead group players by tiers at each position. That way instead of looking at the worst third baseman and the worst first baseman and assuming the position have equal 'replacement value', you'll know that after the 4th round or so of most draft, there's enough scarcity of quality third basemen that you're likely to end up with someone very mediocre, while there are still plenty of strong first basemen who are likely to be available over the next few rounds.

Wade Davis 2010

Wade Davis is frequently mentioned as a potential sleeper for 2010. I think that's a reasonable opinion, as long you you keep in mind the word 'potential'. He's young (24) and has always had good (but not truly exceptional) strikeout rates. I think some people are looking at his 36.1 major league innings last year (with 36 strikeouts and 13 walks) and drawing the conclusion that he may be ready to dominate immediately. That probably isn't the case. His control hasn't been terrific in the minor leagues, and unless he improves substantially (which is possible), I would expect something like 7 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.5 walks per nine innings. A solid major leaguer, but nothing special. Judging by his minor league home run rates, I assume he's not a groundball pitcher either, so I'd expect an ERA in the mid-to-high 4s. At his current MockDraftCentral ADP of 296th (79th starting pitcher), that's reasonable, but there are definitely a few better picks available later on in most drafts.

John Danks 2010

Another player getting less attention than he did at this time last year is John Danks. Like Lackey, his ADP does seem reasonable - 162nd overall (37th among starting pitchers). And like Lackey, Danks seems like a fairly 'safe' pick for that point in the draft. The difference is that Danks probably has more upside - he's only 24 years old. His component stats regressed slightly in 2009, as he struck out 6.69 per nine innings and walked 3.28. His groundball rate did improve to a career best 44.2% though. Danks seems like a nice combination of low risk and good upside for 2010, as long as you don't have to reach to pick him.

John Lackey

John Lackey seems to be flying under the radar in 2010. While his ADP of 116th (24th starting pitcher) at MockDraftCentral seems reasonable, I just don't hear anyone talking about him. His component statistics have been remarkably consistent over the past five years. While he doesn't have the same upside as some other pitchers going around the same point in drafts, he's a very solid #2 or #3 starter for fantasy rotations. Last year he struck out 7.09 per nine innings, walked 2.40 per nine innings, and had a 44.9% groundball rate. I expect about the same this year, although I do think that the move to Boston could result in more wins.

Brian Matusz 2010

I have to admit that I went into this post with the preconceived idea that Brian Matusz is being overrated for 2010. After looking at the stats, I am not so sure. In two minor league stops, he struck out a combined 121 batters and walked 32 batters in 113 innings. Those accomplishments were at A+ and AA ball, which makes them slightly less impressive. However, Matusz was effective once he reached the majors as well, striking out 38 and walking 14 in 44.2 innings pitched. Given his age (23) and lack of professional experience, I think some improvement can be expected to take place this year. The only real negative is his low groundball rate of 31.2% in the majors. While I wouldn't want to rely on Matusz too heavily until he has more of a track record, I do think he could be a nice upside pick if you've got a few solid starters already in your rotation.

Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. NFBC, and Rapiddraft

For those who are interested, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball is now open for registration.

At the other end of the price spectrum are the NFBC high stakes contests. I'm not quite ready to take the plunge into their main event, but I will be dipping my toes in the water this year by trying out the NFBC Double Play Online. $350 to enter, with a $60K grand prize sounds pretty good to me. There are additional league prizes and prizes for the overall top finishers. The format is 12 team leagues, 23 active players with a 7 player bench. Rotisserie 5X5 scoring. Weekly FAAB acquisitions and pitcher changes, but twice weekly hitter lineup changes. I'll be talking a lot more about the format, since that (along with daily fantasy contests) will be my main focus this year. I was hoping that Rapidraft would run a baseball contest, but that doesn't appear to be the case, since they've already announced that football mock drafts are coming soon.

Yovani Gallardo 2010

Yovanni Gallardo is a relatively high risk/high reward pick for where he's going in most drafts. His age (23) and high strikeout rate (9.89 last season) give him incredible offset. His mediocre control (BB/9: 4.56) was somewhat offset by an improving groundball rate of 45.0%. In addition to the control issues, there is injury risk, as he threw a fairly large number of innings (194) for someone coming off almost a fully missed season. If you're picking your first or second starting pitcher, I'd suggest going with a safer pick like Beckett or Hamels (who are generally only going a few spots before Gallardo), but if he you're already up to your third starter, Gallardo may have the best upside of those available.

Relief Pitcher Wins and Categories

With so much good fantasy baseball information now available for free on the internet, or at little cost through books, magazines, and subscriptions, it can be hard to get an edge over your competition. One way that I try to find an advantage is by doing small research studies on fantasy-related topics that nobody has looked at. For example, because of the way baseball's scoring system assigns 'wins' to pitchers, I've always thought that relief pitchers would likely get a greater share of the team's wins in home games. Given that teams also win a greater percentage of games at home, I thought that there might be some potential advantage in certain formats to using middle relievers when they're pitching at home.

To test that theory, I put together a list of 18 good middle relievers, and added up their wins at home vs. their wins on the road. Because of the limited sample size, the results were inconclusive - 31 home wins vs. 26 road wins. Considering the rate at which home teams win games overall, that was a little less support for my theory than I expected. However, the study would be worth repeating for a larger group of pitchers.

My reason for expecting more relief wins at home can be illustrated with the following scenarios. Game is tied. Team is at home. Starting pitcher is pulled after 5 innings. Relief pitcher throws scoreless top of 6th inning, and home team scores in bottom of 6th. Reliever gets win. Now, same thing on the road. Starter is pulled after five innings. Team scores go ahead run in sixth inning. Reliever pitches scoreless bottom of sixth. Starter gets win. So basically, the middle reliever gets one extra inning of potential wins at home, and the starter gets on less inning of potential wins.

I think this is something that's worth studying further, using a larger sample size (more pitchers and for multiple years). Also, this effect would affect different pitchers differently, depending on their usage patterns. It would probably be worth categorizing the pitchers into 'types' based on usage, either using the six categories that Bill James used in his "2009 Relief Pitchers" article in The Bill James Handbook 2010
or basing it on some other combinaion of the 22 statistical categories he shows for each pitcher in the same article.

Chad Qualls 2010

If current trends continue, Chad Qualls will be one of the best values available on fantasy baseball draft day 2010. He's currently the 229th ranked player at MockDraftCentral, and isn't ranked at Couchmanagers.com. This is a near-elite level closer. Very few pitchers in baseball have Qualls' combination of peripheral stats. Last season his K/9 was 7.79, BB/9 was 1.21, and groundball rate was 56.9%. I expect the walk rate to regress to somewhere between 2 and 2.5 this year, but that still makes Qualls an exceptional pitcher. He's obviously slipping because of concerns about his September knee surgery. However, he was supposed to be completely ready for Spring Training, and I haven't yet heard anything to contradict that. Given some of the other 'talent' that is available at that point in most drafts, using a 19th or 20th round pick on Qualls seems like a risk that's well worth taking.

Super Fast Mock Drafts

A few days ago, I mentioned the slow mock draft that I was participating in. I was planning to give updates all the way through the draft, but it ran into some problems. It was SO slow that people began to lose interest and go into 'autopick' mode, so many of the picks were made by the Couchmanagers' ranking system, and didn't really provide much useful information.

That experience inspired me to invent the 'Super Fast Mock Draft'. I'm able to complete them in less than half an hour, and they're available starting immediately, 24 hours a day. You may be wondering how that's possible.

Basically, I just take the results of any random mock draft completed by others. I decide what position I will pick in. Each round I'm allowed to pick any players who hadn't been picked already at that point. It's great. I don't need to wait for others to be available or to make their pick. This early in the season, thinking through the picks and researching any questions that come up is more valuable than the experience of drafting at 'full speed' with a time limit. I can stop and see who really is better out of Carlos Gonzalez or Tori Hunter, whether Brad Lidge is likely to be ready for opening day, or what kind of playing time Mike Napoli should get.

The 'flow' of the draft isn't exactly what it would be in a mock draft with other players, since my picks aren't impacting who others can take. But it's close enough that the practice I get from it is just as valuable.

Felipe Paulino 2010

This guy is one of the true sleepers of 2010. I actually feel a little bit guilty writing about him, since I'm sure there are some other people out there who have him on their radar and have been keeping him secret. That said, I've found that no matter how convincing the evidence that a player should do well, a 6.27 ERA general does a good job of limiting his popularity on draft day. Add to that the fact that Paulino may have to compete for a spot in the rotation for a team with a bad offense, and it's easy to see why Paulino is not currently ranked in the Mockdraftcentral.com ADP rankings. They go down to #390, and guys like Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman, both of whom Paulino should easly outperform are ranked at least 100 spots earlier in the 290s.

So why am I so high on Paulino? For starters, he struck out 8.57 batters per nine innings. He combined that with ok control (BB/9: 3.41) and an average groundball rate of 42.2%. That's good for an xFIP of 4.10. And at 26 years old, Paulino definitely has a reasonable chance of further improvement. If you're in a deep league, Paulino will make a great late round pick, and even in shallow leagues he's someone you should keep an eye on.

Rick Porcello 2010

I was very critical of the Tigers for starting Porcello off in the major leagues last year. Based on his minor league numbers the previous season, I thought he had little chance of success. Porcello definitely held his own though, largely due to a very high groundball rate of 54.2%. With that kind of ability to induce grounders, Porcello doesn't need great strikeout rates or walk rates to success, which is good, since his rates last year were weak (K/9: 4.69, BB/9: 2.74). If Porcelo (who just turned 21 years old) can improve on that low strikeout rate, he could be excellent in 2010. But don't be fooled by the sub-4 ERA...Porcello definitely got a bit lucky last year, and could pitch better while putting up a higher ERA this season.

Elvis Andrus 2010

Elvis Andrus is a good example of the type of player I most like to have on my teams - low risk, high reward. Yes, that's right...low risk, high reward. What does a player have to do to qualify for that unlikely combination. Generally, they need to be VERY young - that's where the high reward comes from. Because of their youth, we simply don't know how much they might still improve...but it's likely to be a substantial amount. The low risk comes from a combination of having an established track record of performance (in this case, Andrus' 2009 season), not being at risk of losing playing time if they struggle, and not showing any particular reason to be worried about injury risk. Andrus qualifies on all counts, and a repeat of the 33 steals he managed in 2009, would make him a worthwhile pick in 2010 at his current Couchmanagers ADP of 107th, especially if you aren't able to get any of the big name stolen base specialists.

B.J. Upton 2010

It seems like each year, perception of B.J. Upton's fantasy baseball value swings wildly from drastically overrated to underrated, and then reverses itself the next season. I think he may be due for an upswing this year. His most recent ADP at Couchmanagers.com had him ranked as the 104th player, just below hitters like Pence, Loney, Wieters, C. Jones, Y. Escobar and Soriano. Although his average was terrible (.241) last year, he has hit .300 in a full major league season. He's also hit 24 home runs in a season. And he's stolen over 40 bases each of the past two years. So we know the potential is there for a huge season, if he puts it all together. It may seem as though Upton has been around for ever, but he's still only 25 years old! Improvement can be expected, and it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes an elite player for fantasy baseball in 2010.

Fantasy Baseball Updates Including WCOFB

Notes on a few fantasy baseball odds and ends...

First of all, if you have any questions or topics you'd like me to address in future posts (including "what should I?" type questions), email me at the address listed at the bottom of the righthand sidebar.

The slow mock draft that I mentioned a couple of days ago is underway. I picked 10th out of 12. I was hoping that Prince Fielder would fall to me, but he went one pick earlier. I ended up with Ryan Howard at #10 and Joe Mauer at #15. The best potential alternatives would have been Miguel Cabrera instead of Howard, and Carl Crawford instead of Mauer.

I'm still waiting to see if a number of sites are going to launch baseball contests this year. One that has added some detail this week is the WCOFB. It's organized by the same folks who do the WCOFF. The main event will have a $1,600 entry fee, pay out league prizes, and a grand prize with value of $200,000. The one odd thing is that I can't find a mention of other prizes for the top overall finishers. If that's the case, you could potentially finish 2nd in your league and overall, and get only $2,500 back for your $1,600 entry fee. More realistically, someone WILL win their league and finish 2nd overall...and get back only $6,000, just like any other league winner.

John Smoltz 2010

The Mets are reportedly interested in signing John Smoltz for the 2010 season. If they do, that might be the smartest thing they've done in the past year. Yes, Smoltz is a 42 year old pitcher who put up a 6.35 ERA in a half season of work last year. But if you look beyond the ugly ERA, Smoltz actually pitched pretty well, striking out 8.42 per nine innings and walking only 2.08. Much of that was accomplished in the American League, which makes it even more impressive. The only warning sign is that after many years of strong groundball rates (in the 44%-49% range), Smoltz was a mediocre 39.6% in 2009. That said, Smoltz' peripheral numbers are very similar to another popular sleeper this year: Ricky Nolasco. But Smoltz will go far later (if at all) in your draft. He isn't currently listed at Couchmanagers.com, which means he's not going before pick #275. I suspect that he'll start getting picked a little earlier if he signs with a team, but he should remain a bargain.

NFBC Double Play (Online) Slow Mock Draft

The NFBC Double Play (formerly called NFBC Online) is a $350 contest with a $60K grand prize, as well as league prizes and additional prize for the other top overall finishers. If anyone is interested participating in a slow mock draft to practice for it, I've set one up at: Couch Managers. There are 12 hour time limits on picks. 12 teams will participate, and the draft will last 30 rounds. Assume standard 5*5 roto scoring, with a 700 IP minimum.

Francisco Liriano 2010

The good news for Francisco Liriano is that he's still only 26 years old. For some perspective, that's younger than J.A. Happ. He is also was nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA last year indicated, as he struck out 8.03 batters per nine innings and walked 4.28. He's better than J.A. Happ too. The bad news is that, so far, he's just a shell of what he used to be. While his strikeout rate and walk rate have gotten worse, the greatest concern to me is that his groundball rate has gone from a fantastic 55.3% in 2006 to a very mediocre 40.2% last year. He simply isn't the same kind of pitcher he used to be, and it's likely that the changes in his pitches go well beyond a reduced velocity. All of that said, I think there's still a good chance that he slips far enough in drafts to make him a sleeper. If he pitches as well as last year, his ERA should be in the 4s with any kind of luck at all. And given his age, and the additional time since his surgery, there's certainly the possibility that he continues to improve. Just don't pick him too soon, particularly since there's a great deal of injury risk that comes with Liriano, as he was shut down with elbow problems towards the end of last year.

Neftali Feliz 2010

The minor league statistics of Nefali Feliz suggested that the 21 year old might struggle with his control when he first reached the major leagues. That wasn't the case at all, as he struck out 39 and walked only 8 in 31 innings of relief. While Feliz would certainly be one of the Rangers' better starting pitchers, some expect them to continue handling him with extreme care, and put him in the bullpen to start 2010. While this would hurt his value in many leagues, it might actually help in other formats. As I discussed in the Joba Chamberlain profile, relievers with starting pitcher eligibility can be very valuable in formats that have just the right combination of roster restrictions and innings pitched limits. While Feliz had no major league starts in 2009, he may be categorized as a SP because of his 13 starts in the minors.

Joba Chamberlain 2010: Starter or Reliever?

According to most, Joba Chamberlain will be competing with Phil Hughes for a spot in the Yankees rotation in 2010. That alone makes valuing him a difficult proposition. His poor performance in 2009 adds another layer of complexity. Chamberlain is going to be a high risk, high reward pick this year, and whether he's a successful one will come down in large part to whether the Yankees choose to make him a starter or a reliever.

In 2008, pitching sometimes in relief and sometimes as a starter, Chamberlain struck out 10.58 batters per nine innings and walked 3.50. Combined with his 52.0% groundball rate, I was convinced he would be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in 2009. I was wrong. Very, very wrong. He was worse in all area, as he struck out only 7.61 per nine innings and walked 4.35. His groundball rate was also substantially worse (42.9%). What happened? Is it possible that the move to full time starting, along with a dose of bad luck, could make the same guy who was so good in 2008 pitch so poorly in 2009?

Probably not. According to pitch/fx experts, Chamberlain appeared to have lost something off his fastball. In cases like this (a young pitcher losing some effectiveness), I think it's often a warning sign about major injury problems. On the other hand, it's also perfectly possible that the winter off will give his arm a chance to recover from whatever was ailing it. Whatever projection you use for Chamberlain this year, don't count it. Evaluate whether you can afford the risk of a totally lost season vs. whether you need the upside to be competitive. And keep in mind that for formats with an innings pitched limit combined with few roster spots for relief pitchers, Chamberlain may have some unique value as a relief pitcher who has starting pitcher eligibility.

Fantasy Sports Trade Assocation (FSTA) Conference 2010

The Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) Business Conference is taking place next week in Las Vegas. Like many of you, I typically don't pay a lot of attention to it, since I won't be attending. However, this is the time of year when I'm eagerly waiting to see what new fantasy baseball contests will be launched, which contests will make changes to their rules, and what the prizes will be for the big contests. I've always wondered why most of the games launch so late. I would think a December launch would be a big advantage in getting publicity and signing players up before their money and time are committed elsewhere. I suspect that one of the reasons for the late launches is that many companies (especially newer ones) feel that they'll get the most publicity by launching at the FSTA show. Because of that, I'm hoping that we're going to see a bunch of announcements next week. If so, I'll be providing all the details here, and hope to be able to provide special deals, discounts, and bonuses for some of the sites as well.

Some of the questions that I hope to see answered in the next couple of weeks:
1. Will Rapiddraft launch a baseball game in 2010?
2. What will Fantasyworld's baseball game look like (assuming they have one)?
3. What will the prize pool for WCOFB look like, and will they be hurt by the fact that NFBC launched early and already has 210 signups for their main event?
4. Will any of Rotohog's partners offer prizes that make the game worth playing seriously?
5. Will ESPN up the prizes for its Baseball Challenge?
6. What other new games will appear out of the woodwork this year?

Check back here next week to see what I've been able to uncover!

Octavio Dotel 2010: Pittsburgh Pirates Closer

Yesterday, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Octavio Dotel to be their closer for 2010. It remains to be seen where Dotel will be picked in drafts, but I'm guessing that it will be low enough to make him a solid sleeper. The combination of being on a bad team, having had some problems when used as a closer in the past, and a terrible walk rate last season (BB/9: 5.20) should be enough to keep people from being too enthusiastic about him. The only one of those that I put any stock in is the walk rate. And since his strikeout rate remained excellent (K/9: 10.83), I'm willing to give Dotel the benefit of the doubt and assume that his walk rate should move back to a more typical (for him) level in the high 3s. The other concern is that he's an extreme flyball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of only 33.3%. That means that he is prone to giving up home runs. Overall, I'd view him as a very slightly inferior version of David Aardsma...very high strikeout rate, bad control, flyball pitcher, without a long record of closing success. Given the risks Dotel isn't someone you want to reach for in the draft (hint: neither is Aardsma), but if he falls far enough, he could make a big impact for your team.

Joel Pineiro 2010

Joel Pineiro was a different pitcher in 2009 than the rest of his career. That's a good thing. He went from a low strikeout pitcher with ok control and a pretty good groundball rate to a lower strikeout pitcher with GREAT control and a GREAT groundball rate. That transformation cut more than half a run from his xFIP. If he had improved in only one category, I would be questioning whether their was a real change in ability, or whether 2009 was a fluke. However, when there are substantial changes in all peripheral stats, it's a pretty good indication that something in his approach changed, or he started using a new pitch. I haven't done the Pitch/fx research to see if it backs that theory up, but I'd be very surprised if that isn't the case here. Given that, I think the best guess for Pineiro's 2010 season is more of the same. Maybe a little bit of regression to the mean in his walk rate and groundball rate, but not too much. In addition, his signing with the Angels means that he'll be suffering the effects of moving from the National League to the American League, which typically results in a lower strikeout rate. So overall, I expect Pineiro not to quite match his 2009 performance, but a walk rate below 2.0 and a groundball rate above 55% should still make him effective. Look for plenty of wins and a respectable (low 4s) ERA, but a mediocre WHIP and few strikeouts.

The Flaw Of Averages

I've added an Amazon.com ad with some suggested reading for Waiver Wire visitors. All of these are likely to be either entertaining or useful for fantasy baseball players. You can cycle through the full list of ten books using the up and down arrows that appear in the ad.

One book that I'd particularly recommend is The Flaw of Averages. I'm about halfway through it so far, and it's one of the more thought provoking books I've read in the past few years. If your education or job have had a heavy emphasis on statistical analysis, you may find a lot of the material in the book obvious. And if you're looking for something to spoon-feed you information about baseball, then it won't be for you. But I've found the book inspiring when it comes to thinking about various fantasy sports formats and how best to analyze them. It's already motivated me to write simulations to test out how to increase lineup variance in multiplayer daily fantasy contests and how much the results of certain game formats with playoffs rely on skill vs. luck.

J.A. Happ 2010

Quick quiz: how old do you think Phillies' breakout prospect J.A. Happ is? If you got the correct answer (27), you did a lot better than me. What kind of 'prospect' is 27 years old?!? I had assumed he was 22 or 23. A big deal was made over the Winter about whether the Phillies would trade Happ or keep him for 2010. Given that he's a 27 year old pitcher with one major league season under his belt, I'm not sure what the big deal was. If you look past the pretty 2.93 ERA, Happ was just ok in 2009, striking out 6.45 per nine innings and walking 3.04. His groundball rate was no help either at 38.4%. Happ is currently at #141 overall on Couchmanagers.com. The next three starting pitchers are Shields, Garza, and Baker. I'd rather take any of those guys than Happ.

Grady Sizemore 2010

2009 was a disappointing season for Grady Sizemore. He was coming off of his best year (mainly due to 33 HR and 38 SB) and was being picked in the late first round of some drafts. In an injury plagued season, Sizemore put up only 18 HR and 13 SB, with an awful .248 batting average. Sizemore is still only 27 years old, so assuming he's healthy in 2010, he should bounce back well. I would expect something on the order of .275, 28 HR, 25 SB. That would make him a bit of a stretch as his current Couchmanagers.com ADP of #23, but the same could be said of any of the outfielders available at that point in this year's drafts.

Josh Johnson 2010

Josh Johnson was excellent in 2009. Turning 26 years old in a couple of weeks, he's on the cusp of being an elite pitcher. If his performances regresses from it's 2009 levels, Johnson is just another good starting pitcher. If he maintains or improves upon it, he's a star. He struck out 8.22 batters per nine innings, walked 2.50, and had a 50.3% groundball rate. All three of those are very slightly better than what he did in 2008, but at his age the only one that I see regressing a bit is the groundball rate. To give you an idea of how good Johnson's peripherals are, one of the most comparable players is Brett Anderson. That may not sound like high praise, but I expect to get Anderson on almost all of my teams this year...I'm that high on him. Ok, I'll give you two more guys with similar peripherals - Carpenter and Wainwright. I would expect a similar performance from all four of these guys in 2010.

Carlos Lee 2010

Carlos Lee had a bizarre season in 2009, hitting .300 with 26 home runs and 35 doubles (in 610 at bats) yet still managing to score only 65 runs. That's quite an accomplishment...possibly only rivaled in baseball history by Brook Jacoby's remarkable 1987 season (.300, 32 HR, 69 RBI, 73 R). I usually ignore a player's ability to score runs when evaluating him for fantasy baseball, figuring that the spread from the best run scorers to the worst isn't that great. But Lee's performance last year was so extreme that I think it's worth at least asking the question - will he be able to score more in 2010? I suspect that the answer is "yes, but he'll still be below average". He's part of a bad offense, takes few walks, and isn't particularly fast anymore. That said, he clearly had some bad luck last year. Overall, Lee has been one of the more consistent performers in baseball over the past decade, but may be slightly overvalued based on where he's going in most drafts (ranked 62nd at Couchmanagers). At 33 years old, he simply doesn't have a lot of upside compared to lower ranked players such as Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Shin-Soo Choo.

Colby Lewis 2010: Great Control In Japan

Actually, Colby Lewis had great control pitching in Japan in 2009. For 2010, he'll be returning to the Texas Rangers. Assuming Lewis gets a spot in the Texas rotation (which I think is very likely), he should be successful against major leaguers. Last season he struck out 186 and walked an absurdly low 19 in 176.1 innings pitched. His 2008 statistics were very similar. While the competition isn't quite as tough in Japan (and he pitched in a league without DHs), I would still expect something along the lines of 7 strikeouts and 2 walks per nine innings. Lewis is a flyball pitcher (at least he was when he was in the majors before), so he's not going to be a star with those numbers, but he should be quite effective. It's hard to predict where he's going to go in drafts. Will his poor track record in the U.S. outweigh his strong performance in Japan? We won't know until we see how he fares in mock drafts.

Carlos Quentin 2010: Draft Day Steal?

The honest truth is that I have no idea what to expect of Carlos Quentin in 2010. The good news is that he's only 27 years old, and that as bad as his injury plagued 2009 season was, he still was on pace for 30+ home runs if you project his at bats to a full season's worth. He also rarely strikes out compared to most sluggers, giving him added value in some daily contest formats. After going in the third or fourth round of drafts last year, he's ranked 114th by ADP at CouchManagers.com right now.

That said, there's plenty of bad news. First of all, he's never had 500 at bats in a season. So injuries may just be part of the package with him. Even in his terrific 2008 season, the low strikeout rate didn't lead to a particularly high batting average (.288) and his average in the majors other than that has been really poor. Quentin hits remarkably few doubles for a slugger. He also doesn't get a lot of walks or triples. Those characteristics may actually hurt him more in daily contests than in traditional leagues where those statistics don't count.

If he really falls below pick 100 in your draft, then I would classify Quentin as a draft day steal. But he's definitely a fairly high risk player. In general, I'm hesitant to consider a player's potential trade value when evaluating him, but I do think that a resurgent Quentin would be perceived differently than equivalent players. For example, if Quentin is hitting .300 with 18 home runs at the All-Star break, he could probably bring a lot more in return than if someone like Nolan Reimold does the same.

Looking for a VB.NET Lead Developer/Programmer

A lot of Waiver Wire readers seem to have technical backgrounds, so I thought it would be worth posting this here. The company I work for is looking for a VB.NET Lead Developer in Morristown, NJ or Washington, DC. The position will be responsible for leading a small development team coding financial services software applications using VB.NET. It will initially involve approximately 50-75% coding, and will have one direct report. If you (or someone you know) might be interested, send me an email at the address linked to at the very bottom of the sidebar on the right hand side of the screen.

Josh Hamilton 2010: Expect a Rebound

I'm expecting a major rebound for Josh Hamilton in 2010. It seems as though people are writing his fantastic 2008 season (.304 AVG, 32 HR, 9 SB) as a fluke right now, with Hamilton ranked 63rd by ADP at Couchmanagers.com. That's a pretty big fall from last year, when Hamilton was a late first round or early second round pick in many drafts. Hamilton is only 28 years old, so he should still be in his prime. His numbers were obviously hurt by injuries in 2009, so I'm willing to give him a partial free pass on his weak season. The problem with viewing his previous season as a fluke is that in roughly a half season in 2007 (298 AB), he was just as good, hitting .292 with 19 home runs. And despite his age, he had played in very few minor league games, so he was essentially learning on the job. If anything, I think Hamilton's career path is likely to follow that of a player a year or two younger than he is. In other words, I think there's a possibility that the best is yet to come for Hamilton. If he's available in the 4th or 5th round of a 12 team draft and you're looking for an outfielder, I wouldn't hesitate to take him.

David Price 2010: Redraft - No, Keeper - Yes

Last year, I warned people to temper their expectations for David Price. Based on his Minor League numbers, it was very unlikely that his performance was going to match the hype. I turned out to be correct, as Price was a very average pitcher in 2009, with a 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, and 41.5 GB%. I would expect about the same in 2010, although any young pitcher with such good stuff has the potential for sudden improvement. The key statistic to watch for Price early in the season is his walk rate. If he gets through the first 30-40 innings with improved control, then there's a good chance that he's taken the next step in his development. In the meantime, I think he's someone who would be worthwhile to draft in the middle rounds of a keeper league, but in redraft leagues there are going to be better options available when he's picked in your 2010 draft.

Aroldis Chapman 2010: Fastest Pitch, Biggest Bust

My thoughts on Aroldis Chapman in 2010 (and beyond) can be summed up in four words: fastest pitch, biggest bust. Ok, technically neither of those are true, but here are the key facts about Chapman. He is a 22 year old Cuban who defected last year, and was just signed by the Cincinnati Reds for 5 years and $25 million (with an option for a sixth year at $5m). His fastball has been clocked as high as 102 MPH. Obviously the Reds (and other teams) were willing to pay for his upside. Now the bad news - according to Baseball Reference, in his last season in Cuba he walked 62 batters in 118.1 innings pitched. He also threw 14 wild pitched. That's really bad. Especially against less than Major League quality opposition. His strikeout rate doesn't make up for it. He struck out 130. That's excellent, but not really dominant enought to begin to make up for that lack of control. People like to point to Randy Johnson as a pitcher with similar skills and similar statistics early in his career. That's true, but I don't think you can expect every wild 22 year old to figure things out like Johnson did. Chapman's upside is probably worth the risk in a keeper league, but I don't expect him to have any impact at all in 2010.

Roy Oswalt 2010

Roy Oswalt struggled with back problems in 2009, and put up the highest ERA of his career at 4.12. That ERA should depress his draft position. However, his peripheral statistics (K/9: 6.85, BB/9: 2.08, GB%: 43.3%) are virtually indistinguishable from any of his past five seasons. Oswalt has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the majors for years, and while the groundball rate dipped a little bit in 2009, it's still within the range of what he's done in the past. Rather than indicating a change in effectiveness, I would assume it was a minor fluke, and that his 2010 will be more or less in line with what he's always done.

Vlad Guerrero 2010: Texas Rangers

Vlad Guerrero is a Texas Ranger for the 2010 season. That's good new for his owners, as a friendly home park should help cancel out the effects of again. Vlad will be 35 years old for the upcoming season, and he's definitely not the fantasy stud that he used to be. His speed is gone. While still solid, his batting average and home runs have shown a downward trend for several years now. Until last year, his peripheral stats gave reason for hope that he might bounce back to previous levels, but with an increasing strikeout rate and decreasing walk rate, it seems likely that the decline is permanent. Playing in Texas, he's an ok pick in the mid-to-late rounds, but he's definitely not someone you want to reach for.

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

As far as I know, nothing like this has really taken off in popularity yet. I'm not sure why. I've set up a fantasy baseball chat room...right here at The Waiver Wire. Right over there ----->>>>
On the right side of the screen. Give it a shot...leave a message, and if anyone else is around, talk about fantasy baseball!
If you've got a website of your own, you can use the same widget, either to set up your own 'chat room', or to share this one. I'd recommend the latter, so that together we can get a critical mass of people talking fantasy baseball...after all, a chat room isn't much use until there's someone to chat with. To share the Waiver Wire Fantasy Baseball Chat Room, click the [Embed Chatroom] button, and follow instructions.

Rich Harden 2010

For years, I was a true believer that Rich Harden would eventually have a breakout season, and be one of the top pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, that becomes less likely with each passing year. Harden is still injury prone, and hasn't pitched 150 or more innings since 2004. His control was worse than ever last year, as he walked 4.28 batters per nine innings. And with the move to Texas, he's now pitching in a tougher league, in a bad park for flyball pitchers. That said, Harden still has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball every year, and is still only 28 years old. As always, he'll be a high risk/high reward option for your fantasy team, and his draft position is likely to reflect the decreasing probability that he'll put it all together.

Jon Lester 2010: Best Pitcher in AL?

I think it's probably finally time for me to admit it: yes, Jon Lester is better than Clay Buccholz, and probably will continue to be better. I was wrong. Actually, Lester is better than pretty much everyone. His peripheral numbers were very similar to Tim Lincecum...but in the much tougher American League. I think an argument could be made that he was the best pitcher in the AL last year, as he made a tremendous jump in strikeout rate (from 2008 K/9 of 6.50 to 2009 K/9 of 9.96), maintained his good control (BB/9: 2.83) and maintained his excellent groundball rate (47.7%). Normally, I'd be very wary of that huge jump in strikeout, and expect some regression. However, this article points out that on average, Lester's fastball was substantially faster in 2009 than in 2008, suggesting that the drastic increase may represent a real improvement that he can maintain in 2010.

Matt Garza 2010

A few years ago, Matt Garza was considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. While Garza has been a solid major league starter (quietly putting up ERAs in the 3s each year from 2007-2009), his performance has been unspectacular. At 26 years old, is there a chance that his performance eventually matches the hype? It's possible. Last year, Garza had his highest strikeout rate (K/9: 8.38). His control continued to be average though (BB/9: 3.50). If he can improve his control in 2010, while maintaining that strikeout rate, then he would potentially be one of the better pitchers in the American League. For now, he's an effective late round pick with some upside.

Scott Kazmir 2010

Four times in five years, Scott Kazmir recorded strikeout rates of 9.81 per nine innings or higher. Then, in 2009, he struck out only 7.15 per nine innings. When a 25 year old pitcher has that kind of drop in strikeout rate, it's cause for concern...and often an indication of an underlying injury. While there's certainly a good chance that the Winter off will allow Kazmir to get over whatever his problems are, he's not someone you'll want to count on for very much in 2010. I think his current Couchmanagers.com ADP (ranked 160th) seems about right. You'll be taking a gamble. If he returns to his pre-2009 level of performance, you'll be getting a bargain. If he pitches like he did in 2009, you will have taken him slightly too early. And if his arm falls off, you won't have wasted too high a pick on him. Whether you draft him or not should depend on the extent to which you need to 'swing for the fences' to have a successful season.

Matt Cain 2010: Overrated?

If there's one pitcher I'm not likely to end up with any of my teams in 2010, it's Matt Cain. He drastically outperformed his xFIP last year, putting up an exceptional 2.89 earned run average, and winning fourteen games. This is a pitcher with very average peripheral stats: 7.07 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 38.9% groundball rate. Unless those numbers improve, I would expect an earned run average around 4. Meanwhile, he's being picked in mock drafts shortly after studs like Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. He does have a couple of things going for him. He's only 25 years old, despite being around forever. That means that real improvement is still fairly likely. And he's now substantially outperformed his xFIP for three straight years. Over the short term, xFIP is a far better predictor of ERA than ERA itself is. However, the longer the time period, the better a predictor ERA becomes, as it includes some of the more subtle skills that aren't reflected in xFIP. That said, I still don't see Cain as being worth a pick anywhere near where he's going in most drafts.

Josh Beckett 2010

Josh Beckett is one of the more consistent starting pitchers in baseball. In 2009, he had his usual excellent strikeout rate (K/9: 8.43), walk rate (BB/9: 2.33), and solid groundball rate (47.2%). I would expect more of the same in 2010, as those numbers were actually slightly inferior to Beckett's 2007 and 2008. Beckett is going 74th on average at CouchManagers.com. I think that's pretty fair, but do feel that he's a substantially better pick than many of the pitchers going in the 20-30 picks after him. Guys like Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, and Jered Weaver all have drawbacks - worse control, less track record, unfavorable leagues change, lower strikeout rate, worse groundball rate, etc. I'll discuss some of these guys in future posts. Most years, picks 80-120 are where I start looking to pick up undervalued starting pitchers, but as I've mentioned before this year looks a little bit different. It seems like picking up one stud starter (Lincecum or Halladay) in the 2nd round and then loading up on undervalued hitters in the middle rounds may be the way to go.

Fantasy Baseball Addiction

For anyone wondering how extreme fantasy baseball addiction can get, here's a screenshot of a spreadsheet I've been working on for the past few weeks...



That may not seem so extreme, but this spreadsheet is designed to help me win a fantasy baseball contest whose inaugural season hasn't launched yet. In fact, the launch hasn't even been announced yet. Based on the site's football contest, I emailed customer services asking if they will run a 2010 baseball contest. Their response ("Yes, we are planning to.") was enough to get me started, based on some assumptions about what the format was likely to be when 'converted' to baseball.

That may seem crazy, but these large contests are almost always most profitable to play in their initial season. In general, the prizes are largest the first year, fewer people are competing, and those who are competing haven't spent as much time figuring out optimal strategies. As the various sites launch their games for 2010, I'll discuss many of them here. I'll particularly focus on those which I think will offer the best profit opportunities. Fantasy baseball is always fun, but I find it the most fun when I'm winning money at it.

Troy Tulowitzki 2010

On the surface, it looks like 2009 was either a breakout season for Troy Tulowitzki, or possibly a fluke. However, digging into the details a little further reveals that it was more of a gradual progression from his excellent 2007 season. An injury shortened 2008 appears to be the outlier in the progression of an excellent young player. With the exception of stolen bases, Tulowitzki's 2009 numbers show very slight improvements over 2007 in most areas. That's encouraging, and I think he can be expected to have a similar season in 2010. Given that he's still only 25, there's excellent upside as well. The only area that I'd be concerned about is his steals. He's always had a low success rate, and prior to last year's 20 steals, his previous career best was 7. It appears he was given the green light without really earning it. Hopefully, he won't have that taken away from him this season. I think a line of .295 with 25 home runs and 15 steals is fairly conservative, but the there's definitely potential for better.

Aaron Hill 2010

It's hard to know quite what to make of Aaron Hill's monster breakout season last year. He hit 36 home runs, after putting up a previous career high of 17. He did hit 10 less doubles than in his previous full season, so the jump in home runs wasn't quite as drastic as it appeared...but it was still pretty extreme. Hill's other numbers (batting average, walk rate, strikeout rate) all remained fairly close to their previous levels. Interestingly, his groundball rate rose...not what you'd expect in a player who suddenly hit a lot more home runs. Hill is only 27 years old, so that improves the chances that this was a genuine breakout. In addition, he still hit plenty of doubles (37 in 2009), which reduces the risk that the home run total was due to him getting 'lucky'. I'm not expecting him to hit 36 home runs again in 2010, but something in the 25-30 range seems likely. That would still make him very valuable as a 2nd baseman, and a good pick relatively early in drafts.

David Aardsma 2010: Seattle Mariners Closer

David Aardsma will be the Seattle Mariners closer in 2010. In 2009, he moved into the closer role and was very successful, saving 38 games and putting up a 2.52 earned run average. However, if you look a little more closely, there's definitely some risk here. Aardsma 4.29 batters per nine innings. That's already pretty marginal, without considering that at 28 years old, it's the best control he's ever shown in the major leagues. Then consider that his groundball rate was an atrocious 25.3%, and has always been pretty weak. Aardsma certainly has the potential and the strikeout rate needed to succeed as a closer, but if his walk rate rises to it's previous levels, there's a distinct possibility that one of the Mariners other relievers (hopefully Brandon League) will have the opportunity to close at some point this season.

Evan Longoria 2010

In my last post (about Joey Votto), I mentioned that there doesn't seem to be much dropoff from the hitters available in the late first round or early second round of most drafts, such as Evan Longoria, and the guys available in the middle rounds. While Longoria is an excellent baseball player, I stand by that statement. For fantasy purposes, Longoria's strength is that he hit 33 home runs last year and is young enough (24) that he should continue to improve. He steals a few bases, but not enough to have a huge impact on his value. His batting average is mediocre (.281 in 2009, .272 in 2008). While he certainly has the upside to become worthy of being a first rounder, he's not so good or so young at this point that I'd be excited having him as the best player on my team. There are a number of players who might be available at the same point in 2010 drafts who I'd prefer, including Tulowitzki, Howard, and Cabrera.

Joey Votto 2010

Last year, Joey Votto hit .322 with 25 home runs in just 469 at bats. I'm a little hesitant about his ability to repeat that kind of performance, because both the power and the batting average were substantially better than the Major League equivalents of his minor league numbers. At 26 years old, it's not clear whether Votto had a breakout season indicative of a new level of ability, or whether it was simply a career year. Votto's ADP at CouchManagers has him ranked 50th, which seems reasonable. It seems as though hitters are particularly hard to rank this year. I think a case could be made that for 2010, Votto isn't a lot worse than Evan Longoria (ranked 11th). On the other hand, a case could also be made that he isn't at all better than Shin-Soo Choo (ranked 85th). The relatively gradual decline in hitting talent from the early rounds to the middle rounds of drafts may make it worthwhile to pick the top pitchers earlier than most years, or to focus on players whose values benefit from position scarcity.

Nelson Cruz 2010

Last year at this time, Nelson Cruz was one of my favorite sleepers. After his excellent 2009 season, Cruz can no longer be considered a sleeper for 2010. Although CouchManagers.com has his average draft position ranked at a very modest #73, Cruz went at #45 in one recent experts mock draft.

In 2009, Cruz hit .260 with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases. That was in only 462 at bats, so it would have been around 40 home runs and 25 steals if Cruz had played every day. In addition, his last two partial seasons at AAA have yielded batting averages of .352 and .342, so there is reason to think he can manage a .300 batting average in the Major Leagues.

Now, the bad news. Cruz is already 29 years old, so he's in his prime and unlikely to improve much (if at all). The Rangers have shown a tendency to mess with his playing time, so you can necessarily count on him getting 500+ at bats. Cruz doesn't hit a lot of doubles, which suggests his home run totals could be a little flukey, although at this point it does appear that may be a consistent pattern in his case. He also doesn't hit triples or walk much, which may have a real impact depending on your league format.

Taking all that into account, I think Cruz is still a very good value anywhere from about #50-#70 in a draft. Despite his success, he still seems to be underrated.

Shin-Soo Choo 2010

CouchManagers.com has Shin-Soo Choo ranked at #82 by ADP for 2010 mock drafts. That's great value for a guy who hit .300 with 20 home runs and 21 steals last year. In a half season the previous year, Choo had a slightly better batting average and home run rate, so his performance in those categories is fairly well established now. The steals were unexpected, and if they continue then Choo is a great value if he falls so low in your draft. The pattern I'm beginning to notice for 2010 is that there really isn't all that much difference between the hitters available in the second round and those available in the sixth, seventh, and either rounds. The second rounders are better, but the gap seems narrower than most years. Because of that, I'd be more tempted than usually to take a pitcher (probably Lincecum or Halladay) in the second round, even though I usually wait until much, much later. In any case, I really like Choo, and at 27 years old, he still has more upside than risk.

Kendry Morales 2010

Kendry Morales finally 'arrived' in 2009, as he hit .306 with 34 home runs. The batting average was in line with his minor league performance, and the power was actually a little better than expected. However, at his age (now 26) increasing power isn't unusual, and his 43 doubles suggest that the home runs probably weren't a fluke. He's currently listed as the 52nd ranked player by ADP at CouchManagers. He seems like a reasonable pick if he's available that point in your draft. While I wouldn't be surprised by some regression in his power numbers, he should maintain at least a .300 batting average, and there's also room for some improvement in all areas. Just don't expect any steals out of him in 2010...I'm guessing that after getting just 3 steals in 10 attempts last year, Morales is not going to have the green light very often.

Carlos Gonzalez 2010

One trend that I'm seeing in mock drafts so far is that young hitters with upside are generally being undervalued relative to more established hitters. I understand the risks involved in picking young players - their true talent level is less defined, and if they struggle, teams are more likely to reduce their playing time or even send them down to the minor leagues. On the other hand, I'm generally playing to win, not just finish respectably. And to win in competitive leagues, you're going to need to take some chances. Carlos Gonzalez is currently listed as the 130th ranked player in mock drafts at CouchManagers.com. At that position, he's an absolute steal. In a half season (278 at bats), Gonzalez hit 13 home runs and stole 16 bases with a .284 batting average. His numbers in AAA suggest that he's probably capable of hitting .300, particularly since he'll play half of his games in Coors Field. He's only 24 years old, so some improvement is not only possible in 2010, but likely. If you can get him after pick number 100 in your draft, you're doing well.

David Wright 2010: Fantasy Bust?

Unlike his teammate Jose Reyes, David Wright appears to be going far too early in most 2010 drafts. He's ranked 15th at CouchManagers.com right now, which would be fair if we just assume that he'll bounce back to his pre-2009 performance. However, since we don't really know what led to his drastic power reduction in 2009, I'm not sure we can do that. For a guy who hit only 10 home runs last year, an awful lot of downside, without enough upside at #15. Even if Wright bounces part of the way back, he's got the potential to be a fantasy bust again this year. He's going lower than Reyes in drafts, and in my opinion has more downside.

Jose Reyes 2010: Fantasy Bargain

Jose Reyes is going far too low in most mock drafts right now. At CouchManagers.com, his ADP right now has him ranked 28th...behind Jimmy Rollins (23rd) and Derek Jeter (26th). If healthy, Reyes is clearly a far more valuable fantasy player than either of those two shortstops, and represents a major bargain. In fact, in one recent 'experts' mock draft, Reyes went in the early fourth round of a twelve team draft. Obviously people are still worried about his health. However, he's supposed to be running at full speed sometime in January, and be at full strength for the beginning of Spring Training. In a small league, where you might want to play it safe, I can see him sliding to the #20-#25 range, but in any large contests, where you need to swing for the fences to beat hundreds (or thousands) of other entrants, I would value Reyes as an early 2nd round pick.

Tim Hudson 2010

In his late season return to the Atlanta Braves starting rotation last year, Tim Hudson proved that he's fully recovered from injury, and that he can be counted on as an effective pitcher in 2010 and beyond. In 42.1 innings, Hudson struck out 30 and walked 13. Most importantly, his groundball rate was 62.2%. Those numbers are all roughly in line with what Hudson has produced when healthy over the past few years. Hudson's age (34) and low strikeout rate mean that there's very limited upside, but if you're looking for a safe player to round out your rotation, Hudson should be a good pick.

Chad Billingsley 2010

Chad Billingsley is the opposite of his teammate Clayton Kershaw going into 2010. Billingsley was viewed as a rising star after his 2008 season, but a very slight regression in his peripheral stats and an ERA above 4 led many to lower their opinions of him. He is currently going substantially lower than Kershaw in most mock drafts, despite being a very similar quality pitcher. While he doesn't have quite the upside of Kershaw, he is also young (25) and has had a K/9 of 9.01 and 8.21 the past two years. Let your opponents go for the hype of Kershaw, and pick up Billingsley for yourself, a few rounds later in the draft.

Kelvim Escobar 2010: Signed By Mets?

According to an AP source, the Mets are about to sign Kelvim Escobar. If this were 2007, that would be something to get excited about. In his last full season (2007), Escobar struck out 7.36 batters per nine innings, walked 3.04, and had a solid 44.0% groundball rate. That was done in the American League, so he'd project to be substantially better than that for the Mets. Unfortunately for Escobar (and the Mets), Escobar has barely pitched since then, due to injuries. He's expected to compete eighth inning relief duties, although if effective it's certainly possible that he'd be given an opportunity to start. For the Mets, this looks like a low risk signing with some upside. For fantasy purposes, Escobar is probably someone to pass on for 2010, but to keep an eye on if you're in a deep league.

Clayton Kershaw 2010: Avoid Results Oriented Thinking

Based on his 2.79 ERA in 2009, some people may be tempted to project Clayton Kershaw as one of the top starting pitchers in the National League in 2010. Don't be one of those people. One of the reasons for looking at peripheral stats is to avoid results oriented thinking. As far as we can tell, Kershaw got very lucky in 2009. He had an extremely low 4.6% rate of home runs per fly ball. That's unsustainable, and if you assume that it will return to a more typical value, it becomes clear that Kershaw has a long way to go before he's an elite pitcher. The main problem right now is his control. A 4.79 BB/9 is really bad, although with Kershaw's excellent K/9 (9.74 in 2009), he's still good enough to be an effective major league pitcher right now. That strikeout rate, combined with his age (21), give him the potential to be an elite starting pitcher, but he's not there yet. If you can get him late in your draft, he's great pick due to his upside. But if he goes relatively early (as he will in most drafts), the upside probably isn't worth the risk.

Average Draft Position (ADP): Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Justin Upton in 2010

This post was supposed to be about Justin Upton's fantasy prospects for 2010. Then I noticed that he's going substantially lower in mock drafts at Couch Managers than the two big free agent hitters - Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. All three are fairly similar statistically, with Bay possibly having a little more power than the other two (but lower batting average), and Holliday hitting for a slightly higher average (but less power). The big difference of course is that Upton is just 22 years old...still in the steep part of the learning curve. He has great breakout potential. Holliday is going to be 30 in a few weeks. Bay is 31 already. They're unlikely to improve substantially at this point, although depending what team each of them ends up on, they could get a boost from their home park. That said, Upton's age is a huge deal, and given a choice between the three players, I would probably pick him first. Luckily for me, it looks like others don't see it that way. His average draft position (ADP)at Couch Managers is currently 31st, while Holliday is 18th and Bay is 23rd.

Middle Relievers, Sleepers: Badenhop, Jepsen, Masset, and Feliciano

I got into a fairly involved debate about Brandon League on the Rotojunkie message boards recently, and as a result did some research. I was arguing that his combination of high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and high groundball rate is pretty unusual. The only pitchers I could think of who had that combination were all really good. As part of the discussion, I collected a list of pitchers who threw at least 40 innings, with a K/9 over 7, BB/9 under 3.5, and GB% over 50%. League beats all these threshholds by a wide margin, so some of the other relievers on the list aren't as good as him. The starters are probably better, since it's tougher to have a high strikeout rate when starting. Obviously the relievers with much better peripherals like Rivera and Broxton are also better. Still, it's an interesting list, and may indicate some middle relievers to target in deep leagues (or if they're ever given a chance to close).

Adam Wainwright
Brandon League
Brett Anderson
Burke Badenhop
Chad Qualls
Felix Hernandez
Jonathan Broxton
Kevin Jepsen
Mariano Rivera
Nick Masset
Pedro Feliciano
Roy Halladay
Scott Downs

This also may give some idea why I'm so high on Brett Anderson. He's one of only four starting pitchers who made the list, and the others are all pretty good.

Brandon League 2010: Traded To Seattle Mariners

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, Brandon League (and a prospect) are being traded to the Seattle Mariners for Brandon Morrow. I may be in the minority here, but I think Seattle is getting the better Brandon in this deal. League was an exceptionally good reliever in 2009, and I expect more of the same in 2010. His K/9 of 9.16 and BB/9 of 2.53 would have been excellent in any case. However, his consistently high ground ball rates (55.7% in 2009, and higher in each of his previous major league seasons) make him a nearly elite reliever. At some point in the future, League is going to be a closer...and he'll be a good one.

Brandon Morrow 2010: Traded To Toronto Blue Jays

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, Brandon Morrow is on the verge of being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. I think that's a slight negative, as he'll be going from a better pitchers' park (and likely, a better team) to a worse one. Of more concern should be his lack of control. While Morrow has put up some acceptable ERAs in limited innings, his control has always been very borderline. Even in the minor leagues he struggled to avoid walking batters. At 25 years old, Morrow still has time to improve. However, if anything his stats (particularly his strikeout rate) have regressed over the past few years. Until he shows some indication that he's learned to throw strikes, I would stay away from him, except as a high risk/high reward late round pick in moderately deep leagues. That said, any young pitcher with high strikeout rates should be watched closely. If he starts out the season showing good control (let's say something like 3 walks in his first 20 innings), then it may be time to pick him up cheap.

Brad Lidge 2010: Phillies Closer?

When I typed the title for this write-up, I initially typed "Bad Lidge" by accident. That would have been a pretty good description for Brad Lidge in 2009, but there's a reasonable chance to expect better things in 2010. In 2009, something was clearly wrong with Lidge...both his strikeout rate and walk rate were worse than they've been in previous years...much worse, in the case of the strikeout rate, which was 9.36, compared to rates over 11 for each of the previous five years. That said, Lidge's pitching was nowhere near as bad as his 7.21 ERA would indicate...he had a healthy dose of bad luck, and as a reliever he never got the chance to pitch enough innings to pretty up the numbers. Lidge had surgery during the offseason, and may be a week or two behind in Spring Training. That said, the Phillies GM has been quoted as saying that the team hopes he'll be ready to close by Opening Day. As long as he's given a shot at closing, Lidge should be another nice high risk/high reward player to pick up in the late rounds. But given questions about his health, effectiveness, and role, you definitely should pick him too early in your draft!

Phil Hughes 2010

Phil Hughes has had his ups and downs the past few years. He's gone from elite prospect to struggling major league starter to lights out reliever. The Yankees recently acknowledged that he's not even guaranteed a spot in their rotation for 2010. They anticipate putting either Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in the rotation, and putting the other in the bullpen for now. I think that given Chamberlain's inconsistency in 2009, and past dominance in the bullpen, Hughes is the more likely one to be used as a starter. If he is, I think he'll be very effective. He's not going to match the numbers he achieved in 2009, working mostly out of the bullpen (K/9: 10.05, BB/9: 2.93), but I think a strikeout rate of around 8 per 9 innings and a work rate around 3 (with an ERA around 4) would be very achievable. He's still very young (23), so there's plenty of upside. And playing on the Yankees, he should have an offense capable of helping him to plenty of wins. Uncertainty about his role, and his lack of past success as a major leagues starter should combine to make him a draft day bargain. Hughes is exactly the sort of high risk/high reward player that I like to target in the late rounds of drafts.

Edwin Jackson 2010: Traded to NL

In the past I haven't been a big Edwin Jackson fan. Despite the fact that he's always been considered a good prospect, his statistics never backed that up. In 2009, he showed great improvement, although his peripheral stats (K/9: 6.77, BB/9: 2.94) indicate that there was a degree of good luck involved in his 3.62 ERA. I would have expected his 2010 season to be somewhere between the old Edwin Jackson and the 2009 version...except that the trade from the American League to the National League will give him a nice boost. Some of that will be offset by moving from a good pitchers' park to a good hitters' park, but it will still be a net benefit. I'd project Jackson for something like K/9: 7, BB/9: 3.5, GB%: 40%, with an ERA in the low-to-mid 4s. In other words, he's a pretty average major league pitcher. Given his youth (26 years old), there's definitely still some upside though. Keep any eye on his strikeout rate...any K/9 above 8 early in the season would likely indicate that he's taken another step forward...especially if combined with solid control.

Rafael Soriano 2010: Tampa Bay Rays Closer

During the offseason, Rafael Soriano was traded to Tampa Bay. He will be their closer for 2010, and should be terrific. Soriano consistently posts a K/9 above 10 and combines that with acceptable control. His one weakness is an extremely low groundball rate. The switch from the National League to the American League should affect him less than it would impact a starting pitcher, since as a reliever he rarely got to face pitchers at the plate in the NL anyway.

Ricky Nolasco 2010: Sleeper

Ricky Nolasco is being touted by many as one of the best sleepers or bargains. I agree. Despite the fact that so many people are aware that his 5.06 ERA in 2009 was a fluke, I suspect he'll go lower in drafts than he should. His K/9 of 9.49 and BB/9 of 2.14 were exceptional. The strikeout rate may regress slightly, I would expect it to remain above 8...and his control was even better in 2008, so he should remain one of the better K/BB (and therefore WHIP) pitchers in the National League. An ERA in the mid 3s seems like a reasonable expectation for 2010.

The Waiver Wire Returns For 2010

I have no idea how long this will last, but The Waiver Wire blog is back! I've got the itch to write about baseball (and other fantasy related topics) and will be posting regularly. I expect most of the posts to be player profiles for 2010, but am not making any promises.

Exchange Wagering

If you're interested in learning more about exchange wagering and it's future in the US, check out this information on exchange wagering in New Jersey (NJ) and California.

Waiver Wire's Affiliate Sites

The Waiver Wire Blog isn't currently active, but my other two sites are

Draftbug has daily fantasy sport contests for cash prizes. Compete in the daily baseball freeroll, or enter cash contests ranging from $1 to $55. Football is coming soon!

Daily Baseball Data has the following features:

1. Historical Batter vs. Pitcher Data for today's matchups
2. MLB Weather Dashboard with hour by hour forecasts for all games on one screen.
3. Bullpen Usage Report including recent pitch counts for all relievers

Daily Baseball Data

I haven't done a substantial post in about a week. Whenever I go that long without writing anything, it's telling me something...my heart isn't in it. I've been really busy with a variety of projects, and The Waiver Wire has kind of gotten pushed to the side. Rather than force myself to write mediocre posts here every day, I'm going to do my posting at my other site (Daily Baseball Data. You can expect one good, substantial post per week (approximately) as well as shorter daily blurbs...and lots of great data and tools such as the MLB Weather Dashboard and our new MLB Lineup Dashboard.

MLB Lineup Dashboard

A new MLB Lineup Dashboard tool is now available at Daily Baseball Data. Just go to the 'Other Tools' menu to access it.

Tommy Hanson Called Up

The Atlanta Braves are calling up Tommy Hanson to start a game this weekend. Hanson should be effective immediately, and is a potential future star. He dominated the Arizona Fall League, and has continued that dominance at AAA this year, with an incredible 90 strikeouts and 17 walks in 66.1 innings pitched. I expect him to strike out close to a batter per inning in the majors. He will probably have mediocre control initially, but the strikeouts will more than make up for that.

Livan Hernandez

Over the past five years, Livan Hernandez has been so bad that he's become almost a joke. Good players in salary cap games knew to look for batters opposing him whenever possible. However, something has changed this year. A combination of improved control and an improved groundball rate has him doing better than he has since 2004. If he keeps up his current rates of 5.2 strikeouts per game, 2.4 walks per game, and a 46.6% groundball rate, he's going to be a solid, average major league starting pitcher. Those numbers are pretty similar to a guy like Braden Looper...not at all like the Livan we've all come to know and love targeting.

Chris Carpenter - Fantasy Star

Chris Carpenter is clearly back as a fantasy star. In 29 innings pitched, he's got 28 strikeouts and only 5 walks. He's got a 56.2% groundball rate to go along with that. Those number are more or less in line with what he was able to accomplish before he got injured. As long as he stays healthy, I believe he's back to being one of the best pitchers in baseball. The only other pitcher who has similar K/9 and K/BB rates, while maintaining that kind of groundball rate is Roy Halladay.

MLB Weather Dashboard

I'm happy to announce the launch of Daily Baseball Data, a new site which Dave Hall (of Rotoguru) and I are collaborating on. The site features a variety of data and statistical tools designed to help forecast and analyze today's schedule for players of daily fantasy contests and other fantasy baseball formats that use daily transactions. The initial set of tools includes a new MLB Weather Dashboard which displays hour by hour forecasts for all of today's games on one screen, as well as several tools that Dave originally created on Rotoguru to analyze each day's matchups.

Rick Porcello Revisited

A number of very young pitchers were placed in major league rotations to start this season. In most cases, I thought their promotions were premature based on their minor league performance to date. I happen to have been wrong on most of them, including Rick Porcello. In 51.2 innings pitched, he's struck out 32 batters and walked 16. That would be good enough to get by in any case, but given his exceptional 54% groundball rate, it's terrific. Three lessons that his success so far reinforces - young pitchers can improve very rapidly, it would be really nice to have access to minor league groundball rate data, and sometimes the scouts DO know something that basic statistical data can't tell us. My gloomy forecast for Porcello ignored what people were saying about him not having been allowed to use his secondary pitches last season.

David Hernandez 2009

Out of all the different starting pitchers the Orioles have tried out over the past few years, this is the first time I can remember one who looked like a really good prospect. David Hernandez is a strikeout machine. Pitching at AAA, he's got 60 strikeouts and 13 walks in 43.1 innings pitched in 2009. That' exceptional, and while his numbers weren't quite as good in previous years, he's always struck out well over one batter per inning. I believe he'll strike out close to one per inning in the majors, although his control is likely to be mediocre. In traditional leagues, Hernandez would make an excellent spot starter in favorable circumstances. In daily contests, he's not ideal, since the mediocre control and inexperience will likely limit his innings per start, but he's certainly someone to be avoided when looking for hitters with favorable daily matchups.

Eric Milton 2009

Eric Milton is back in the majors. Yes, that Eric Milton. I know it seems like he should be too old to be making a comeback, but he's actually only 33 years old. When I saw that he's scheduled to start for the Dodgers today, I took a look at his statistics, and wasn't expecting much. But actually, pitching at AAA, he had a very respectable 27 strikeouts and only 6 walks in 35 innings. Even if we assume that he isn't quite as good as that would indicate, and we make the appropriate adjustments for the tougher competition at the major league level, that means that Milton is exactly what he was before. An average major leaguer with a pretty low strikeout rate, pretty good control, and allowing a lot of flyballs.

Jordan Zimmermann Revisited

Before the season, I had some pretty negative things to say about Jordan Zimmermann's readiness for the major leagues here. To add insult to injury, I misspelled his name. It turns out that my forecasting was as bad as my spelling. Do not be fooled by his awful ERA. He has pitched exceptionally well, striking out 32 and walking only 11 in 34 innings. The only reason to pay attention to his ERA at all is that it may allow you to steal him from someone in a trade if you play in traditional leagues. He probably won't go deep enough into most games to be a great pick in daily contests, but he's certainly no longer someone that makes a tempting target for opposing hitters.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Contests

I know that a lot of people don't like registering for sites (even free sites) that they don't have all the details about, so I've put together a web page that explains Draftbug in more detail. The page guides you through the process of creating an account, registering for our daily free contest with cash prizes, selecting players for your team, and watching their performance with our live scoring feature. To learn more, click here.

Kris Medlen 2009

As expected, Atlanta finally called up a top pitching prospect from AAA to replace Jo-jo Reyes in their rotation. It just wasn't the one that a lot of people were expecting and hoping for. Rather than go to Tommy Hanson (whose dominance from the Arizona Fall League has carried over to the regular season), the Braves will be starting Kris Medlen in today's game. While he doesn't quite have Hanson's potential, Medlen is an excellent prospect in his own right. At AAA this year, he's struck out 44 batters and walked 10, in 37.2 innings pitched. He should be effective immediately, and would make a great pick-up for anyone in a traditional NL only league. While he's not likely to be a frequent pick of mine in daily contests, he certainly isn't someone that I'll be targeting with my hitters.

Brett Cecil 2009

Brett Cecil is the starting pitcher today for the Toronto Blue Jays. When he was called up to the majors, I didn't expect much from him. Last year, he pitched the bulk of his innings at AA. He was excellent, striking out well over a batter per inning. However, his control was just average (2.7 BB/9). After being moved up to AAA, his walk rate showed the expected deterioration against tougher competition, and was 4.7. Starting 2009 in AAA, his walk rate remained high, and he struggled to strike batters out (in a very limited sample size), as he had 9 strikeouts and 8 walks. Basically, he looked like he needed some time in AAA before he'd be ready to be effective at the major league level. However, since being called up, he had 15 strikeouts and 4 walks in 20 innings pitched through his first three starts. If he can continue to pitch with anything approaching that level of control, he'll be very effective. I'm betting he can't yet, and that his walk rate will rise sharply. I'll be ready to revise that opinion if it remains relatively lower for his next two or three starts.

Daily Fantasy Contests: Calculating The Value of Early Games

One of the keys in daily fantasy baseball contests is making sure that all of your players are actually playing. Because of that, I always keep a close eye on injury news and weather reports. However, sometimes players are given a day off even if they're healthy and their team plays. Starting lineups are typically available anywhere from half and hour to an hour before gametime. That means that if your players are from teams that have early games, you can check if they're playing and replace them if not. If they're from teams with late games, you won't have that option.

Yesterday I was faced with a situation where I had McCann and Martin ranked almost exactly even at catcher. The only difference was that McCann had an early game, while Martin didn't. I also knew that there was a good chance that I would be around to check lineups before my team 'locked in' at 7pm, so I picked McCann. How much more valuable do you think McCann's being in the early game made him? What if they had each played several days in a row? How about for players at positions that get less days off than catchers? What about a superstar like Pujols? A guy who is sometimes benched like Nelson Cruz? I'd like to get everyone thoughts on how to go about trying to calculate the incremental value of a player being in an early game.

What's Wrong With Scott Kazmir?

Scott Kazmir currently has only 32 strikeouts and a whopping 25 walks in 41.1 innings pitched. That's pretty bad. While the walk rate isn't so far out of line with his career numbers to really be alarming, the strikeout rate (which is 6.3 per nine innings) is, especially when you consider that a pitcher who is allowing more base runners is actually striking out a lower percentage of batters than his K/9 would suggest. Particularly given past concerns about the health of Kazmir's arm, I think there's a reasonable chance that he's dealing with some injury problems. If you're playing in traditional leagues, you may not be able to get enough value for him at this point to make a trade worthwhile. On the other hand, if you're playing in daily fantasy contests, or a salary cap game like ESPN Baseball Challenge, Facebook Salary Cap Fantasy Baseball, then there's simply no reason to take on the risk of using Kazmir, with so many other choices available.

Today's MLB Matchups

I've got a much more detailed write-up of today's match-ups and ratings posted at The Hardball times today, but in short:

-Cubs hitters(especially speedy ones, since they're facing Chris Young) have a good match-up, but there's a risk of rain for the game.

-The Indians tandem of Lee and Wood top my pitcher rankings on a very weak day for pitchers, but are also at risk of getting rain. Pettitte and Nolasco are the next best options.

-Pujols is the best by a wide margin at first base, but if you can't afford him, then Helton is a great bargain.

-Rangers hitters have a good matchup.

-Astros hitters have a good matchup...especially for basestealers, since they're facing Jason Marquis.

Is Rick Porcello Ready?

At this point, I'm leaning towards 'no'. He hasn't been quite as awful as I expected, but a pitcher with a K/9 of 5.0 and a BB/9 of 3.0 isn't great. His groundball rate has been excellent (52.1%) and if he can maintain that, then he might be able to stick in the major leagues. I'm guessing that one or more of the three rate stats is going to get worse over the course of the season, and that he'll need some time at AAA.

Because of all that, Indians hitters are all over the top of my daily player ratings. Along with the Astros hitters, they appear to have the most favorable match-ups today. This being Sunday, many players will get the day off. That, along with the fact that the Indians last outfield slot is somewhat unsettled (Francisco and Laporta) between two low priced players, means that there's a great profit opportunity in daily contests, as long as you'll be around between 12pm and 12:30pm Eastern to check who is actually playing.

On the pitching side, Josh Beckett has enough of an edge that I'll give him another shot. His strikeout and walk rates have been respectable the past two games, although his control has been poor overall this season.

Matt Harrison is Your Friend...

...although he probably wouldn't be mine if he read this post. The White Sox are at home against Harrison. That's a great match-up, as Harrison has a very low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, isn't an extreme groundball pitchers, and the White Sox hitters will have home field advantage in a favorable hitters' park. They also have a ton of hitters who are fairly cheap in most formats. I'll be loading up on them in Draftbug contests today.

On the pitching side, Billingsley is my top ranked starter and Broxton is a clear standout at closer. Sabathia is #2, but maybe not worth the price in most daily formats. Scott Baker appears to be a good pick if you're looking for a bargain among starting pitchers.

For the first time in a while, it doesn't appear that weather should be a big problem today, although the existing baseball weather sites don't make it especially easy to determine that.

Draftbug Blogger Contest

I'm going to be participating in a Draftbug contest against other bloggers today. I'll write more about the contest later or tomorrow, but for now here's the roster of participants...

Alex Zelvin, ‘waiver wire’, The Waiver Wire
Kyle Huberman, ‘icehube’, Draftbug Millionaire
Dave Hall, ‘Roto Guru’ Roto Guru
Troy Patterson, ‘TroyPatterson’, Rotosavants
Sean, ‘scojo’, 27 Pitches
Nick Cichielo, ‘Junkballers’, Junkballers
Mark Perry, ‘PokerBankrollBlog’, Poker Bankroll Blog
Josh Culp, ‘Future of Fantasy’, Future of Fantasy
Dan Williams, ‘TheInsidePitch’, The Inside Pitch
Justin Hulsey, ‘JayHulsey’, Fandemonium Sports
Paul Bourdett, ‘The Pick-up Artist’, Rotoexperts
Mike, ‘bonds’, Winning at Fantasy Sports Live
Steve Schroeder, ‘stv1313’, Steve's Gambling Sketchbook

Starting Pitchers for Today's Daily Fantasy Baseball Contests

Today was the toughest time I've had in a while choosing starting pitchers for daily contests. My ratings (which at this point are still based on my pre-season projections) have Kazmir as the top pitcher today. Unfortunately, his K/9 and BB/9 have been so bad that I'm concerned something may be wrong with him, especially given his history of arm issues. Vazquez is #2, but there's a chance that his game today will be rained out. A host of other pitchers are all rated fairly evenly, but several of them (Harang and De la rosa) have reduced K/9 rates this year that have me concerned. In the end, the two guys who look good are Gallardo and Greinke. Both are young pitchers who have been excellent so far this year. Because of the possibility that his absurdly high strikeout rate indicates a second straight year of 'breakout', I'm going with Greinke (who happens to be cheaper as well).

On the hitting side, there's Pujols...and everyone else. Basically the difference between Pujols the 2nd best hitter today is about equal to the difference between the 2nd best hitter and an average hitter. So for today's strategy, just pick Greinke, Pujols, and avoid rainouts. Following that plan, you should have a profitable expectation at Draftbug and other daily contest sites.

Pitch/fx and MLB Weather Software Programming

If there's anyone out there with moderately good programming skills, I'm looking for someone to collaborate on two website ideas. One would use Pitch/fx to track pitchers' fastball velocity and provide alerts when a pitcher's velocity was down from his usual. The other would provide a more usable view of the day's weather for MLB games than anything available right now. If you think you might be interested, send me an email and I'll provide more details, including how we're going to make money from the sites.

Daily fantasy contest lineups: 5/3

Today is going to be a pretty tricky day for daily fantasy contest lineups, as a number of games are threatened by weather. It looks to me as though the games with the greatest risk are those in New York, Philadelphia, and Washington DC. Because of that, a lot of the hitters with most favorable match-ups aren't going to be available. I'm going with a lineup loaded with White Sox hitters (at Texas) because although the weather report shows a threat of rain, it looks to me as though it should be over by gametime.

On the pitching side, my two top rated pitchers are Billingsley and Shields. It seems like they've been on the same schedule for the past several weeks, and I've been using Shields due to his lower price in daily contests such as Draftbug. It hasn't been paying off, and I just checked his peripheral stats for the season so far. Not encouraging. His strikeout rate is 4.8 per nine innings. That's far enough from what he usually does that it could indicate some kind of unannounced problem. I'll play it safe and go with Billingsley today. Broxton is the clear standout among closers as well, and comes at a very reasonable price in Draftbug, so Go Dodgers!

What's Wrong With Josh Beckett

I told you something was possibly wrong with CC Sabathia. Based on his last start, I'd say he's fine.

I told you nothing was wrong with Jake Peavy. He hasn't yet shown that I'm right.

Let's look at another struggling star starting pitcher - Josh Beckett. His ERA is over 7. The good news is that his strikeout rate is 8.9, which is right about where I would have expected. His groundball rate is similar to last year too. I sometimes check whether there's been a sharp change (in either direction) in groundball rate to determine if something may be wrong with a pitcher. The bad news is that his control has been really awful, as he's walking over 4 batters per nine innings. That will be something to watch over his next two or three starts. At this point, I'd only discount his value ever so slightly in traditional leagues, but would generally favor other top starters over him in daily contest leagues until he shows good control for a couple of starts. Another slight concern in his statistics is that his strikeout rate may not be as good as it looks. Pitchers allowing lots of hits (whether through bad luck or not) face more batters. So the actual percentage of hitters that he's striking out is lower than it appears. In general, if you have easy access to the data, you're better off using strikeout percentage than strikeout per inning data.