Last Day For Draftbug Free $

Today is the last day that new accounts on Draftbug will be funded with 4,000 free player points, allowing entry in up to 4 of the $1 contests. Registration is free, and you can save the points until baseball season begins...or enter some of the baseball contests that we've already opened up. The $100 April Home Run Derby Freeroll also remains open, but 160 of the 200 spots have filled, so sign up as soon as you register. If you ever want to chat with me, I'm often logged into Draftbug and will respond to messages in the chat area when I see them.

Opening Day 2009

I talk about this more in the narrative of the video I posted yesterday, but I think there are four or five players who really stand out based on Opening Day 2009 matchups if you're playing in daily contests. Particularly in heads up live drafts, you'll want to focus on getting these guys, and wait to pick players at other positions where the gap between #1 and #2 isn't likely to be as large. Keep in mind that in some cases, we don't know for sure who the opening day starters are going to be, so there's some guesswork involved.

In any case, the four guys who seem to have a clear advantage over others at their positions are:

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Victor Martinez
3. David Wright
4. Ian Kinsler

While I haven't actually set up my spreadsheet to do the calculations yet, they look like clear standouts, based on likely opposing pitchers, ballpark, and ability.

At most other positions there are at least two good options - Sabathia/Peavy, Pujols/Teixeira, Ramirez/Reyes, lots of relief pitchers. In an heads up, live draft contest if you can get all four of those you'll be in good shape.

Fantasy Baseball Live Draft Video of Draftbug

The production quality sucks, my voice is annoying, and I need to train myself out of saying 'um', but this is still pretty cool. Video of a heads up Draftbug live draft, with my narrative explaining some strategy tips for Opening Day contests. We'll be putting together some more polished videos, but for anyone who hasn't tried the live drafts yet, this should be interesting. It's the first video I've posted, so hopefully it won't break the internet.

Opening Day 2009 And Beyond

I wanted to give people some idea what you can expect to see here at The Waiver Wire once the season begins. I know a lot of sites focus on draft preparation, and once Opening Day passes, they're more or less ready to move on to football, but as far as I'm concerned, the fun doesn't begin until the games start.

I'll be focusing a lot on what I'm best at - evaluating match-ups and the context of the games scheduled for the upcoming days and weeks. I'll discuss particularly bad starting pitchers who are expected to start. Many of those are spot starters, who we can't identify before the season begins, because they're in the bullpen, in the minor leagues, or haven't yet showed (through their statistics) that there's something wrong with their health, their mechanics, or their mental state.

I'll try to give you one or more hitters each day that I have favorable expectations for in that day's games, as well as a relief pitcher and a starting pitcher whenever possible. I'll also continue to provide strategy articles for daily transactions leagues of all sorts.

I probably will cut back on the player profiles that I've been doing in the offseason (except where I think a specific player has something particularly interesting for us to discuss), and I won't try to replace all the sites that do a great job of keeping you up to date on latest news.

If there are topics you'd like to see me cover as the 2009 regular season schedule progresses, feel free to suggest them in the comments here, or to send me an email.

Follow Up About Erik Bedard

Several commenters disagreed with my statement about reports on Erik Bedard not looking good so far. Those reports were from a commenter in the Rotojunkie forums. He's someone whose opinion I respect a lot and who follows the Mariners very closely. It's unclear whether the opinion was formed on his own, or something he heard from someone in the Mariners organization, but his exact words were "No one believes he can stay healthy, and his stuff isn't what it was two years ago (his fastball is still a little off his peak and his curve control isn't as devastating)". Given that he's coming off an injury and has a very low strikeout rate this Spring, I'm going to assume that there's truth in what he's saying.

Erik Bedard 2009

I've been touting Erik Bedard as a great sleeper for 2009 up until now. That was based on his having been the most dominant pitcher in baseball in 2007, and the hope that he'd be back to full health in time for the start of the season. That apparently isn't the case, as Bedard has struck out 7 batters and walked 9 in 11.1 innings pitched. Pitchers coming back from injuries are one of the situations that I've discussed before, where you SHOULD pay attention to statistics. And in this case, the stats agree with reports that say that Bedard hasn't looked good. If you can get him in the very late rounds of a draft, he still probably has enough upside to be a worthwhile pick anyway. But just be aware that if he doesn't turn things around in a hurry, you're likely to need to either drop him or stash him away on the bench, and hope he follows a similar recovery pattern to Francisco Liriano's 2008 season.

Winning Daily Fantasy Baseball Contests: Part I (The Basics)

For those who aren’t familiar with them, daily fantasy contests (such as those offered at Draftbug) allow you to pick a team and win (or lose) based on the results of that day’s games. They’re perfect for those who like fantasy sports, but don’t have the time to maintain their team throughout the season. They’re also a great (legal) alternative to sports betting. The most common format for daily fantasy contests are ‘salary cap’ contests, although some site also offer a ‘live draft’ format for those who like the feel of a traditional draft. This article will cover some of the basis strategies needed to succeed in these contests. Future articles in the series will look at some more advanced topics.

Look for bargains – This is kind of obvious, but the salary cap limitations in these contests means that you’re not usually going to be able to use an all-star type lineup. You’re going to need to search out some undervalued players and use them. One common source of these is players who will have an expanded role today due to an injury to another player.

Check the news – Check the news to make sure that you’re not using anybody in your lineup who won’t be playing today. Lineups in these contests typically lock in after starting lineups are announced, so ideally you should make sure that your players are actually in the lineup.

Understand the rules – This goes for any format of fantasy baseball – you should always know the rules thoroughly. In particularly, the scoring system vary in different daily contest formats, and you should make sure you’re selecting players who fare well in the scoring system your contest uses. A player like Jason Giambi is a pretty valuable if your system uses walks, but not so much otherwise.

Larger contests require more risks – In a two person contest you should just go with the best possible lineup. In a larger contest (say 100 people), where the prize payouts are typically very top heavy, you’re going to need to take some chances to have a shot at the top spot. Play for 1st place…not 10th.

Take opponents into account – When you evaluate players for your team, consider who their opponent is today. For pitchers, how strong is the opposing lineup? How strong is the opposing starting pitcher? For hitters, how strong are the opposing starting pitcher and bullpen?

Take park factors into account – Where is the game being played? Ideally you want pitchers to be in favorable pitchers’ parks and hitters in favorable hitters’ parks, although there are plenty of cases when other factors may override this.

If you run a blog or website and are interested in reprinting this article, please send me an email.

Fantasy Baseball Challenge

Some of you have already noticed that there's a new site on my link list. Draftbug Millionaire will track the progress of a small group of fantasy baseball enthusiasts trying to 'go pro' as fantasy players. We don't know what will happen, but it should be interesting to follow. Take a look...and send me an email if you're you'd like to be considered as a participant.

Brett Gardner 2009

Brett Gardner is an interesting sleeper candidate for 2009. In 'real baseball', Gardner should be a solid, but not exciting player. Despite his struggles in his first look at the major leagues, I expect him to put high on base percentages (largely due to drawing a lot of walks) and stealing plenty of bases. He won't hit a lot of home runs. That same profile makes him an exciting fantasy prospect, perfect for a speculative late round pick. At this point, we don't even know how much playing time he's going to receive, since he'll be competing with Melky Cabrera for the Yankees center field role. But if he does get regular playing time, he should be good for anywhere from 30-50 stolen bases, making him valuable regardless of how little power he has. Gardner is a good pick near the end of drafts in all but the most shallow leagues.

Spring Training Statistics of Note

In this article, I wrote about some of the situations where Spring Training performance is actually pretty signficant.

Now that we're further into the exhibition season, I thought it would be useful to identify some of the pitchers whose performance to date is of interest.

Liriano - 21.1 IP, 19 K, 8 BB. No change in opinion based on this. I expect him to be good, but not quite as good as he used to be.

Hampton - 21 IP, 16 K, 3 BB. Good performance in Spring can come from facing especially weak lineups, but this is SO much better than I would have expected that it's noteworthy.

Verlander - 20.1 IP, 11 K, 14 BB. I don't care if he IS 'working on stuff'. This concerns me.

Harang - 19.2 IP, 10 K, 6 BB. Not extreme enough to mean much, but I was hoping to see him blow hitters away this Spring.

Carpenter - 19 IP, 10 K, 4 BB. Same as Harang.

A. Sanchez - 18.2 IP, 7 K, 9 BB. Not really what you want to see from a guy who has had health and control issues.

Carmona - 16 IP, 6 K, 7 BB. Don't be fooled by the 1.69 ERA.

Zambrano - 16 IP, 15 K, 3 BB. Well that's interesting. Maybe bump him up a bit, although he's always been so overrated (until this year), that the upside probably isn't what some people think it is.

Park - 15.2 IP, 18 K, 1 BB. Probably the correct choice for the Phillies #5 starter.

Zimmerman - 14.1, 20 K, 2 BB. Very impressive, but I'm not quite ready to buy into the level of hype he's getting.

Ian Stewart 2009

Earlier this preseason, I was asked which I liked better as a prospect: Ian Stewart or Brandon Wood. I answered that I prefer Wood, and it's not close. The more I look at Stewart's record, the closer it's getting. The recent news that Stewart may be used in some sort of utility role that would give him 2B eligibility in many leagues certainly helps his fantasy value. But there's a lot to like beyond that. This is a hitter who hasn't yet turned 24 and was able to hold his own in a half season in the major leagues last year. The power he showed in A ball in 2004 returned last year. He doesn't have a particularly high strikeout rate. Stewart definitely has the potential to be a nice sleeper in all but the shallowest leagues, and provides the kind of high risk/high reward value that you should be looking for in late round picks.

Baseball Betting - Daily Fantasy Sports Contests

I've talked about this before, but for those who are interested in profiting from their knowledge of baseball, daily fantasy sports contests offer a great alternative to online sports betting. Not only are the contests completely legal (and allow deposits by credit card), but they offer more interesting opportunities as well. Instead of being limited to a maximum of 15 major league games from which to choose, players can enter as many contests as they like, and use a variety of lineups in those contests. These contests are a great chance to win money using Sabermetric concepts to evaluate the impact of park factors, opposing pitchers and lineups, platoon differentials, home park advantage, fatigue, weather, and more. If you've ever thought about doing baseball betting, but hesitated to, try out Draftbug daily fantasy baseball contests. Registration is free, and those who sign up now can enter our free $100 'April Home Run Derby'. Also, until the end of March, we'll be giving all new accounts 4,000 player points, which can be used to enter $4 worth of real money contests.

Carlos Villanueva 2009

With Trevor Hoffman beginning to look doubtful for Opening Day 2009, the Brewers closer role is likely to be in the hands of either Carlos Villanueva or Seth McClung for a while. Villanueva was very effective last year, striking out 7.8 per nine innings and walking 2.5. He also had a groundball rate of 46.6%. If anything, he's likely to improve on those numbers (other than the groundball rate) this year, since he's only 25 years old, and will presumably be pitching strictly out of the bullpen. Last year he started nine games, and relieving generally improves performance slightly. While he's no match for Hoffman, Milwaukee will be in capable hands if they have to rely on Villanueva temporarily.

Nick Adenhart 2009

I really don't understand why major league teams do this to themselves. Nick Adenhart is being considered for a spot in the Angles starting rotation in 2009. Why? In 145.1 innings pitched at AAA last year, he struck out 110 and walked 75. Making any kind of reasonable adjustment for the level of competition, when he faces major league batters...well, that's not good. And in fact, he did pitch 12 of the worst innings in major league history in the majors, striking out 4 and walking 13. Adenhart may be a fine pitcher some day, but the odds are strongly against being early this season. At 22 years old, he belongs in AAA.

Jordan Zimmerman 2009

There seems to be a lot of buzz around Jordan Zimmerman the past few days. The release of Shawn Hill along with Zimmerman's excellent spring performance appear to have given him a role on the Nationals for 2009, and he may start the season as part of Washington's starting rotation. A lot of the buzz is being driven by Zimmerman's 16 strikeouts and 2 walks in 12.1 innings pitched. While that is excellent, good spring training stats should be taken with a grain of salt, since we can't easily determine the level of competition those were actually compiled against. At AA last year, Zimmerman was very good, but not dominant. At 22 years old, sudden improvement is certainly possible, but given a normal progression of his skills, he belongs at AAA this year. I'm all for bringing young pitchers up to the major league team as soon as they're ready, but Zimmerman may not be ready. I will say that he's a LOT closer to ready than Rick Porcello who I wrote about a few days ago.

Justin Verlander 2009

Although his earned run average was more than a full run worse last year than it had been either of the previous two year, my feeling at the end of last season was that Justin Verlander was the same pitcher he had always been. His strikeout rate of 7.1 per nine innings and his walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings were slightly worse than in 2007, but not out of line with his career averages at all. However, based on his Spring Training statistics so far, I'm beginning to wonder if there may be some more increasingly serious health issues for Verlander. In 15.1 innings pitched, he's struck out 7 batters and walked 12. While Spring Training statistics are notoriously unpredictable, I would prefer to avoid any unnecessary risks and steer clear of a situation like Verlander's until I see him begin to turn that ratio around.

Hiroki Kuroda 2009

In a slight surprise (to me anyway) the Dodgers have announced that Hiroki Kuroda will be their opening day starting pitcher in 2009. While I like Kuroda a lot, this actually slightly reduces his value early in the season, as he's likely to be matched against opposing teams' ace starters the first few times through the rotations, while guys like Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw draw easier matchups. That said, Kuroda is an excellent pitcher, due to good control (2.1 BB/9 in 2008) and a high groundball rate (51.3%). With those strengths, his strikeout rate of 5.8 per nine innings is much more than adequate. At 34 years old, he's probably on the downside of his career, but should have a few good years left.

Rick Porcello 2009

The Tigers are apparently considering moving 20 year old pitching prospect all the way from high A ball last season to the starting rotation of their major league team this year. In general, I'm all for early 'promotions' for talented minor leaguers, regardless of age or experience. But I want them to have dominated at whatever level they played at. That isn't the case here, and I think Detriot's management would be making a huge mistake by having Porcello completely skip AA and AAA in 2009. In 125 innings pitched, he only struck out 72 batters, and walked 33. Those are not impressive numbers, especially when adjusted for the low level of the competition. Rick Porcello may be a star someday, but right now he's not a major league pitcher. Unless you're in a keeper league, don't be fooled into thinking he's a potential sleeper. And if you're competing in daily contests like Draftbug or Snapdraft, then targetting Porcello's opponents is likely to be a productive strategy.

Draftbug Fantasy Baseball Contests

The $100 freeroll at Draftbug is filling up quickly. 56 out of 200 spots have been filled since the contest opened Sunday night. The top 20 will receive cash prizes, with 1st place getting $24. Unlike our usual daily contests, in this one contestants will pick 10 hitters within a salary cap, and score a point for each home run their team hits in the month of April. Registration for the site and the contest are both free and just take a minute. We've also now listed some additional 'April Home Run Derby' contests, and will begin listing daily contests soon.

Q&A With David Bloom

I recently conducted a Q&A with David Bloom of Around The Majors. David's answers to my questions are in italics.

1. What do you think are the most compelling roster and position battles that will last until the final days of Spring Training, providing us with something to focus on until Opening Day?

I think the Reds left field position battle is worth following. The Reds have long time minor leaguer Chris Dickerson penciled in after a strong debut last season hitting .304/413/.608 in 122 plate appearances. The thing about Dickerson is that he consistently strikes out a lot and has never really achieved this type of production throughout his minor league career. However, the left handed hitting Dickerson could still achieve double digit home runs and stolen bases. Although Jacque Jones and Jerry Hairston are also in the mix for left field, it’s really only Jonny Gomes who seems to be Dickerson’s main competition. In Gomes, the former Tampa Bay Ray, he has demonstrated a few periods of success across his 5 year major league career, but has never been able to put it all together. In recent years the right handed batting outfielder has bounced between AAA Durham and the Rays big league club. His defense has never been good, and seems better suited for an American league team where he can DH. I am inclined to think this starts off as a platoon situation between Gomes and Dickerson. I expect Dickerson to get some starts in center as well, and depending on how Willy Taveras produces will determine if Dickerson stays in left field.

2. Which individual players that switched teams during the offseason do you think will benefit most from the change of scenery?

One player that comes to mind in the AL is Pat Burrell who signed with the Rays. He can be used in the DH role which better fits his defensive abilities at this point of his career. He is a slugger that can bat in the middle of the Rays lineup and make a lot of the hitters on the Rays better with the added protection in the batting order. In the National league, one player that comes to mind is Javier Vazquez of the Braves who is back in the National league where he has had a lot of success in the past. Vazquez, mainly a fly ball pitcher, pitched a lot better than his ERA indicates. His .308 BABIP seems to indicate he was unlucky in 2008, since his peripheral were strong with a 8.64 K/9 along with a decent WHIP.

3. Most people agree that Matt Wieters will be an impact fantasy (and real) baseball player as soon as he plays in the majors. Are there any other rookies that you expect to have a fantasy impact prior to September?

One player that seems to be on the fast track is one of my personal favorites in Jordan Schafer who I saw play in person last season playing against AA Carolina. For the second spring training in a row, he is tearing the cover off the ball. It seems Bobby Cox is in his corner, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets his chance to play center field on a regular basis. As well, we all know about David Price from the 2008 World Series. Eventually, he will be a fixture in the Rays pitching rotation for years to come. One other prospect who plays catcher like Wieters is Angel Salome of the Brewers. He missed some time last year due to a drug suspension, but hit an outstanding .360/.415/.559 in AA.

4. What team do you think is likely to surprise people this year...both in terms of team performance, and the viability of its players on fantasy rosters?

I am thinking the team that will surprise in 2009 is the Reds in the National League Central. Last year, we found out about pitcher Edinson Volquez as he came on the scene to be a top of the rotation pitcher. The Reds pitching is pretty solid and will be the key to the turn around. Aaron Harang is gearing up to have a comeback season and hopes to be in the conversation as the ace of the staff once again. Second year pitcher Johnny Cueto , along with Bronson Arroyo make up a solid middle of the rotation pitchers. Micah Owings who came over in the Adam Dunn trade has been impressive so far this spring, and could soon be known as the newest pitcher the Reds stole from another organization.

5. Are the people predicting 83-85 wins for the A's crazy, or is their progress rebuilding really that far along?

I am thinking Billy Beane has really done a fine job rebuilding this organization with his tear it down, build it up approach. He restocked the organization with young talent which also allowed them to make key deals for players such as Matt Holliday, who will still be a good player even though he is away from the thin air in Colorado. With the Angel taking a hit both on personnel and injuries, the AL West is there for the taking. The 83-85 wins are certainly achievable.