Ryan Ludwick 2009

It's hard to know what to make of Ryan Ludwick in 2009. A repeat of his 2008 would make him one of the better hitters in baseball, as he hit .299 with 37 home runs, and over 100 runs and RBIs. How likely is he to repeat that kind of performance? Not very. The good news first. He hit 40 doubles, which likely indicates that the home run total wasn't a fluke. Also, he put up a similar performance in 106 at bats in AAA in 2007. Unfortunately, everything else points to this being a career year, well out of line with his ability. Playing in the minors since 1999, Ludwick always had power, but never showed the ability to hit for average (especially once adjustments are made for level of competition). Ludwick is 30 years old, so it would be unusual for him to make a true leap in ability at this point in his career. He might exceed 30 home runs again, but it's likely to come with a much lower batting average...something in the vicinity of .250.

Scott Baker 2009

Scott Baker resembles a slightly inferior version of his teammate, Kevin Slowey. Baker is a solid control pitcher in his own right, but is just slightly inferior to Slowey in a few different ways. Probably the most important is that Baker is already 27 years old, so he's got a lot less time to develop than Slowey. While Baker did have the better strikeout rate (K/9: 7.7) in 2008, this was well above his career average, and I would expect it to be somewhat lower in 2009. Baker has good control too (BB/9: 2.3 in 2008) but not as good as Slowey. And like Slowey, he's an extreme flyball pitcher. If you're looking for a reasonably skilled pitcher to fill one of the last spots in your fantasy rotation, Baker is a good choice. Just recognize that he's got limitied upside.

Grant Balfour 2009

I wouldn't have thought it was possible for me to not be excited about a pitcher who struck out 14.1 batters per nine innings last year, but in Grant Balfour's case I'm not so sure. While the strikeout rate in 2008 was incredible, there are a number of strikes against him. He walked 4.1 batters per nine innings. That in itself would be acceptable for such an overpowering pitcher, but in his previous major league record, his control was substantially worse than that. His groundball rate was only 29.3%. That's not good. And I was surprised to discover that he's already 31 years old. That makes me a lot less optimistic that he's ever going to learn to consistently throw the ball over the plate.

Like Sports Betting...But Legal

Despite being a multi-billion dollar industry, online sports betting in the United States currently has an ambiguous legal status. Additionally, even if you overlook its unclear legality, it can be difficult getting money into (and out of) online sportsbooks. That’s a real shame, because having a piece of the action on a game you’re watching can really enhance the enjoyment of sporting events.

Luckily there’s a new alternative, which has all of the advantages of sports betting, without any of the drawbacks. Daily fantasy sports contests like Draftbug allow players to pick a team of players, and win (or lose) cash based on the statistical performance of those players that day. Fantasy sports are completely legal, deposits can be made by credit card, and payment or withdrawals by check. Unlike traditional fantasy sports, Draftbug doesn’t require a season long commitment. Picking a team takes about five minutes, and results are calculated the same day.

Draftbug is currently offering daily basketball and hockey contests. Baseball will be available on opening day (April 5th). Registration is free, and a promotion providing 4,000 player points (which allows entry in $4 of real money contests) has been extended until the end of March. If you sign up now, I'll also provide daily player ratings for the first month of the season. I used the same ratings (modified for the game format's scoring differences) win Rotohog's 2008 fantasy baseball contest against more than 40,000 other people.

Using Middle Relievers in Yahoo Leagues

As a follow up to the discussion about my Yahoo league, DT asked:

"Can you expand on this concept: 'and rotating middle relievers with good match-ups into my roster' Is this something you widely employ in roto leagues? What are some of the tips to employing it successfully? You don't draft any middle relievers, so are you just streaming? How much do you focus on their opponent? Since you would have to be picking up guys today for the game tomorrow, do you often get screwed by the guy then pitching today, making it less likely he will then pitch tomorrow? How much success have you had with this vs actually drafting good SPs? How reliant are you on subsequently picking up some good SPs for the long haul?"

I actually wrote an article at The Hardball Times this morning about Yahoo leagues where I discuss this in some detail, but here are the answers to DT's specific questions...

I employ it widely in leagues with similar format to Yahoo. Daily transactions are crucial. If rosters are very deep, it can still be useful, but probably needs to be implemented differently (with more MRs and more starting pitchers on the roster).

Here, I'll just be streaming middle relievers, so the strategy becomes tougher when a few other people in the same league are doing the same thing.

I focus a LOT on situational factors like opponents, parks, home field advantage, and more.

Most managers don't hesitate to use relievers two days in a row, so just avoid using someone who has already pitched back to back days and might have to go three days in a row.

The last time I made any effort in Yahoo leagues was 2004. I entered seven, used this strategy, and won all seven. I suspect that I couldn't have done this by simply drafting good starting pitchers and using them all season.

I'm not at all reliant on picking up good starting pitchers for the long haul. In fact, the key to using this strategy successfully is to recognize that only your best players are on your team for the 'long haul'. You're going to be dropping some pretty good players, and you need to be able to deal with the mental anguish of your opponents picking them up and getting good performance from some of them.

P.S. On a separate note...I'm still giving 4,000 player points ($4) at Draftbug and we've got a live draft basketball freeroll scheduled for tonight. Registration is free and takes less than a minute.

Kevin Slowey 2009

Kevin Slowey is one of the best control pitchers in the major leagues right now. Last season he struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings, while walking only 1.4. His only real weakness is that he's an extreme flyball pitcher. In 2008 he had a 36.1% groundball rate, and it was even worse in his major league starts in 2007. Slowey's minor league record was incredibly consistent (and in line with what he's done in the majors so far), and at 24 years old, Slowey has plenty of opportunity to improve. Slowey is a bargain in most fantasy league drafts in 2009, and his great control allows him to pitch deep in many of his starts.

Fantasy Sports Freerolls & Online Live Drafts

A few new announcements regarding my site Draftbug. For those of you who haven't tried it out yet, Draftbug is similar to Snapdraft and Fantasysportslive, with daily fantasy contests for real money or play money. It's a perfect way to make watching the day's games more exciting, without any longer term time commitment. And for those of you who are good at it, it's a great way to make some money.

We ended up continuing our February Draftbug promotion into March. Registration is free, and all new accounts are given 4,000 player points, which allows entry into $4 of real money contests. You can get a bankroll started with no initial deposit! I know that I had said we wouldn't be doing that past the end of February, and I promise this isn't like one of those furniture stores that have been 'going out of business' for the past twenty years. The decision to continue the promotion wasn't made until the night of March 1st.

We've just started running online live draft contests at Draftbug for the NBA and NHL. For those of you who enjoy drafting fantasy teams more than actually managing them for the season, these are perfect. You participate in an online 'snake draft', and win or lose depending on how your players do in that night's games. To encourage participation in these, we're even offering an NHL live draft freeroll today! The prize is small ($2), but how often do you get paid to do something really fun?

Ryan Dempster 2009

Ryan Dempster has been striking out lots of batters while putting up a good groundball rate for years in relief. However, his achilles heel was always his lack of control. Moved into the starting rotation last year, Dempster excelled. His control improved, and he ended up with a 2.96 ERA. Is he going to be able to repeat that? The short answer is 'no'. Even if he pitches just as well in 2009, Dempster is unlikely to allow as few home runs again. However, I do think it's possible that his control has actually improved (possibly due to the move into the rotation) and that Dempster might continue to be a very solid starting pitcher. While most pitchers do better as relievers, the one area where I can imagine some of them finding a starting role easier would be in reducing walks. I don't have any statistical evidence to back that up, but it makes sense to me, and I have really seen anything refuting it either. Control is also the one area where a pitcher of Dempster's age (31) is most likely to still be improving. An ERA in the mid-to-high 3s, with plenty of strikeouts seems like a reasonable projection for Dempster this season.

Yahoo Draft Questions

I got a number of good comments and questions about the draft results I posted yesterday, so I thought I'd answer them in a post where more people would see it.

Adam: "Did you regret not pre-ranking all your players? I'm curious. I have opinions and feelings about each player - it seems to me to be a waste of time to go through the formality of pre-ranking."

Alex: In this case, I have no real regrets. But that doesn't mean I did the right thing. Maybe 5% of the time, you're going to have some kind of technical difficulties when you draft online, or you're going to get interrupted by an emergency of some sort. Pre-ranking can prevent those problems from being a draft disaster. To say that "its ok, because I didn't get burned this time" is the kind of results oriented thinking you should try to avoid. Also, if you're in a league that you view as 'must win' you should be doing something to quantify the relative value of each player, and once you do that, the rankings have more meaning than they do in a draft where you're justing 'winging it', as I did in this one.

Dave: "Alex, I'd be pretty happy with that. Maybe a little short on speed, but probably enough brute force to compensate in other categories. A real offensive juggernaut.

The string of Davis-Cruz-Napoli-Giambi seems like a fun group of players to own.

I think your pitching is fine. You were able to get strikeout potential at a low cost (Myers, Kershaw) and insure it with Dempster and Slowey. None of these pitchers are rockstars but 1-2 of them should come through with flying colors, and as you say, the rest can come off the waiver wire.

Phil Hughes is kind of an interesting pick. I hardly hear anything about him these days."

Alex: Couldn't have said it better myself. Hughes is likely to end up as the Yankees #6 pitcher. I think he's still an outstanding prospect. The truth is though, I rotate so many players onto my team during the season that I'll almost certainly drop him...possibly even if he makes the Yankees rotation.

JR Ewing: "Nice draft. How many teams were in this one? If it was 12 teams, some of those late pitchers you got were absolute thefts where you got them.

Not to nitpick a nice draft, but I thought the Mike Napoli pick was likely a reach. The OBP instead of BA helps him out and he'll out HR probably any C that was on the board at the time and give you a few steals. However, I don't know if the margin in those two categories between him and some other guys likely available is worth a 9th round pick. Also he won't contribute any more in the R+RBI than a lot of baseline catchers will.

Wasn't a "terrible" pick but I wonder if getting Sandoval a lot later made you think about who else was there for you in the 9th round."

Alex: Thanks. 12 teams. I actually like the Napoli pick for a few reasons. Obviously, using on base percentage is a huge advantage for him. Also, I've read several places that the Angels are aiming to get him 400+ at bats this year, even if it means using him as a DH sometimes. If that happens, he could hit 30 home runs and put up some nice RBI and runs totals as well. Ianetta had a already been picked, so there was a VERY large drop off at catcher if someone else took Napoli first.

DT: "No way dude. this might be the worst starting pitching I have ever seen. I would be very impressed if you were competitive in this league.
I do recognize that you won rotohog last year, and that def makes you the guru in my mind, but hey, I guess everyone can have a bad draft."

Alex: I would be SHOCKED if I'm not competitive in this league, and will be disappointed if I don't win. That doesn't necessarily mean I think I had a better draft than anyone else, but I think I have one of the top three or four teams, and better in-season management should put me over the top. These pitchers are probably better than you think (I'll profile several of them in the next few days) and rotating middle relievers with good match-ups into my roster should at least put me in the top half of most pitching categories. With my offense, that's probably all I should need.

First Yahoo Draft

I mentioned a while back that I'd be drafting a team last night. This is the league where I'm up against some pro and aspiring poker players. It's not quite standard Yahoo rules. Some of the modifications are that the roster configuration includes an extra first baseman, batting average has been replaced by on base percentage, and there's a 900 minimimum for innings pitched.

My basic strategy was to go for hitting early, unless any pitchers I liked dropped a lot further than expected. Usually when I use this strategy, I still end up picking two or three pitchers in the first ten rounds. Not yesterday. There was a pretty wide range of experience levels among the players in the league, and pitching was generally going a lot earlier than usual. I have a very, very, very offense heavy team. That may seem like a problem, but I'm generally able to compensate for weak pitching in Yahoo's format by rotating middle relievers with favorable matchups into the lineup slots of any starting pitchers who aren't pitching each day.

Throughout the season, I'll be providing some updates on how this team is doing. Here are my draft results from yesterday:

1. (12) Mark Teixeira
2. (13) Ian Kinsler
3. (36) Nick Markakis
4. (37) Manny Ramírez
5. (60) Brian Roberts
6. (61) Nate McLouth
7. (84) Chris Davis
8. (85) Nelson Cruz
9. (108) Mike Napoli
10. (109) Jason Giambi
11. (132) Ryan Dempster
12. (133) Chad Qualls
13. (156) Brian Wilson
14. (157) Heath Bell
15. (180) Kevin Slowey
16. (181) Brett Myers
17. (204) Pablo Sandoval
18. (205) Yunel Escobar
19. (228) Randy Winn
20. (229) Clayton Kershaw
21. (252) Kendry Morales
22. (253) Chris Dickerson
23. (276) Josh Willingham
24. (277) Hiroki Kuroda
25. (300) Rafael Pérez
26. (301) Phil Hughes
27. (324) Paul Maholm
28. (325) Ubaldo Jiménez

How Not To Prepare

Tonight is the draft for the league I mentioned a while back. It's a Yahoo 5*5 league. On base percentage replaces batting average. My opponents are people I barely know or don't know. The one thing they have in common is that they're really serious about poker. At least one (probably more) are professional poker players. One of the most important steps to prepare for any league that you're determined to win is to pre-rank ALL of the players. It'll help you make the right choice in the heat of the moment, and it will ensure that your draft isn't a disaster if you lose connectivity or are interrupted by an emergency. I haven't done it, and won't get to by tonight. We'll see if I end up regretting it. I'll post results of the draft in the next day or two. I have another draft coming up in a few weeks. That one will be against a group of professional sports bettors, and will be a Yahoo standard fantasy baseball format.

Curtis Granderson 2009

I have to admit, I don't really understand why so many fantasy players have a fascination with Curtis Granderson and his 'potential'. The man is going to be 28 years old in two weeks. The time for potential is past, and the time to perform is now. He's hit over .300 once (just barely). He's stolen over 12 bases just once. His career high in home runs is 23. His career high in RBIs is 74. Basically he's going to score a lot of runs and hit a lot of triples. For most full season leagues, those triples are worth the same as a single. I think his ranking in most draft is because he's an athletic guy who hasn't been in the majors for that long. People just assume that he's younger than he is, and that he's going to continue to improve. Don't count on it!

Horacio Ramirez 2009

According to sources, Horacio Ramirez will be given the Royals #4 starter role, leaving Luke Hochevar and Brian Bannister to fight it out for the last spot in their rotation for 2009. Not that the others are much better, but I really wonder what Ramirez has ever done to deserve this free pass. In 656.2 major league innings, he's struck out 301 and walked 251. That's terrible. He does tend to keep the ball on the ground, with a very good (but not spectacular) groundball rate that usually is in the vicinity of 50%. However, even that comes with a question mark, as Ramirez has tended to allow more home runs than would be expected given his groundball rate. Ramirez is 29 years old, so that's another reason for the Royals not to give him a spot in the rotation - either of the players he'll be taking the spot from are younger, and presumably more likely to show some improvement. The silver lining in all of this is that we can take advantage of the Royals poor decision making, and look to target Ramirez' opponents in daily leagues such as Draftbug.

Who Wants To Be Draftbug Millionaire?

Who wants to be a Draftbug millionaire? I'm looking for one or more people to work on a project with me. Basically, you'll start out with a small bankroll, build it up through winning on Draftbug and through blogging about your experiences and refering readers of your blog to the site. The requirements are:
1. Good analytic skills.
2. Willingness to deposit $20 by credit card.
3. Willingness to write blog posts about your results, plans, and thoughts on an almost daily basis.
4. An insatiable desire to make a lot of money.
5. Willingness to commit to a relatively long term project.

What I'll do to help you out:
1. Contribute an additional $20 to get you started.
2. Help you get the word out about your blog.
3. Will provide strategy and daily player ratings assistance (especially during baseball season) to help you win consistently.
4. Will assist with technical and other advice on blogging and getting referals.
5. A commitment to making this a success for everyone involved.

I'm going to be pretty selective about who I include in this, so if you're interested, send me a quick email expressing an interest immediately, and then by Friday you can get me a longer email telling me why you'd be a good candidate.

Spring Training Statistics

For the most part, Spring Training stats should be ignored, just like Spring Training standings. But there are at least three situations where its worthwhile to pay attention to Spring Training stats:

1. To see whether players returning from injury will be effective. Particularly with pitchers, you can tell how they're doing by looking at their K/9 and K/BB. Just make sure to ignore stats like ERA that have more variance.

2. Look for young hitters with MONSTER numbers. Not just good numbers, but numbers among the best in the league. Research has shown that guys who have a Spring Training slugging percentage more than .200 better than their career average will tend to improve their regular season stats.

3. See how players fighting for jobs are doing. You're really trying to look at this from the perspective of their managers, many of whom put too much stock in Spring Training stats, despite the small sample size. This may be players trying to stick in the majors, fighting for the closer job, or fighting for an everyday spot in the lineup.

One good place to get Spring Training stats is MLB Spring Training Stats.

Last Chance

Today and tomorrow are the last chance to get $4 of free credits when you register for Draftbug, which is the site where I'm offering daily fantasy sports contests. Registration is free and easy. There are real money contests and play money contests in basketball and hockey running now. Or you can simply hang on to your $4 worth of credits until baseball starts. But if you don't sign up by Saturday night, then you'll need to deposit money (by credit card or Paypal) in order to win real money.

Sean Marshall 2009

Sean Marshall has a good chance of winning the last spot in the Chicago Cubs rotation for 2009. He also has a good chance of being one of the better #5 starters in the major leagues this year, and a nice late round bargain in relatively deep fantasy leagues. Marshall's strikeout rate improved drastically last year, going from a K/9 of 5.8 the previous year to 8.1. That was in 65.1 innings, which is enough that a change of that magnitude has to be somewhat meaningful. His control remained about the same. His groundball rate got substantially worse, dropping from 48.2% to 41.2% His increased strikeout rate may have occurred as the result of a change in approach that was achieved at the expense of his groundball rate, or it may have simply been improvement in a young pitcher, with the lower groundball rate being a fluke. If it was the latter, then Marshall has the chance to be an excellent starting pitcher this year. If not, he's still worth owning in deep leagues.

Jeff Niemann 2009

The biggest negative about Jeff Niemann is that he isn't going to start the season in a major league starting rotation. With David Price filling the last spot in their rotation, Niemann will either have to spend time in the bullpen or the minor leagues. He's still an interesting enough pitcher, and close enough to a major league rotation spot if there's an injury or trade, that he's worth evaluating. Niemann's AAA numbers paint the picture of someone who should be moderately effective in the majors immediately. I would expect something like a K/9 of 7.0 and BB/9 of 4.5. Hopefully his control will improve over time. While Niemann is going to be 26 in a few days, the window of opportunity for pitchers to continue improving lasts a little longer than for hitters. While I don't have access to minor league groundball rates, Niemann's home run rates suggest that he doesn't induce a particularly high rate of groundballs. So why do I consider him an interesting pitcher to follow? In an article in The Hardball Times, Josh Kalk showed that using 'pitcher similarity scores' that measure the actual physical traits of a pitcher's pitches (velocity, movement, etc.) Niemann is in some pretty select company. His closest 'comps' include Soria, Kershaw, Cain, Chamberlain, and some guy named Lincecum. While there hasn't been any research yet on how valuable a predictive tool this kind of analysis is, it'll be interesting to see what it means in Niemann's case.

Anibal Sanchez 2009

Anibal Sanchez may be the perfect late round pick this year. A good current skillset combined with youth and high upside potential, all disguised by injury reduced totals and a horribly unlucky 5.57 ERA in 2008 make him a potential steal. Even though he's been around for a while, Sanchez is still only 25 years old. He missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, but came back to put up a K/9 of 8.0 (and BB/9 of 4.3) in almost 52 innings of work. His control is still a concern, but at 25 years old, there's reason to think it may improve over time, and his strikeout rate is good enough that he'll be fairly effective even if it doesn't. His injury history is also a concern of course, but late round picks all come with some baggage, and in Sanchez's case it seems well worth the risk.

Assorted Stuff

I won't have time to do any strategy or profile threads today. Just a few assorted odds and ends.

Just five more days in the February promotion at Draftbug. New accounts get funded with $4 worth of player points free until the end of the month.

I've mentioned before that I won Rotohog's 2008 Baseball contest. They launched the 2009 one yesterday, and the prizes were reduced...basically to nothing. The 2007 winner has already publicly said that he probably won't be playing, and while I haven't made a decision yet, I certainly won't be taking it very seriously this year.

Last, thanks to everyone who's been visiting The Waiver Wire. I appreciate all your feedback...even the anonymous commenter who asked "Are you an idiot?" a few days ago. If any of you have questions or topics that you'd like me to cover, just send an email or make a comment!