Who Wants To Be Draftbug Millionaire?

Who wants to be a Draftbug millionaire? I'm looking for one or more people to work on a project with me. Basically, you'll start out with a small bankroll, build it up through winning on Draftbug and through blogging about your experiences and refering readers of your blog to the site. The requirements are:
1. Good analytic skills.
2. Willingness to deposit $20 by credit card.
3. Willingness to write blog posts about your results, plans, and thoughts on an almost daily basis.
4. An insatiable desire to make a lot of money.
5. Willingness to commit to a relatively long term project.

What I'll do to help you out:
1. Contribute an additional $20 to get you started.
2. Help you get the word out about your blog.
3. Will provide strategy and daily player ratings assistance (especially during baseball season) to help you win consistently.
4. Will assist with technical and other advice on blogging and getting referals.
5. A commitment to making this a success for everyone involved.

I'm going to be pretty selective about who I include in this, so if you're interested, send me a quick email expressing an interest immediately, and then by Friday you can get me a longer email telling me why you'd be a good candidate.

Spring Training Statistics

For the most part, Spring Training stats should be ignored, just like Spring Training standings. But there are at least three situations where its worthwhile to pay attention to Spring Training stats:

1. To see whether players returning from injury will be effective. Particularly with pitchers, you can tell how they're doing by looking at their K/9 and K/BB. Just make sure to ignore stats like ERA that have more variance.

2. Look for young hitters with MONSTER numbers. Not just good numbers, but numbers among the best in the league. Research has shown that guys who have a Spring Training slugging percentage more than .200 better than their career average will tend to improve their regular season stats.

3. See how players fighting for jobs are doing. You're really trying to look at this from the perspective of their managers, many of whom put too much stock in Spring Training stats, despite the small sample size. This may be players trying to stick in the majors, fighting for the closer job, or fighting for an everyday spot in the lineup.

One good place to get Spring Training stats is MLB Spring Training Stats.

Last Chance

Today and tomorrow are the last chance to get $4 of free credits when you register for Draftbug, which is the site where I'm offering daily fantasy sports contests. Registration is free and easy. There are real money contests and play money contests in basketball and hockey running now. Or you can simply hang on to your $4 worth of credits until baseball starts. But if you don't sign up by Saturday night, then you'll need to deposit money (by credit card or Paypal) in order to win real money.

Sean Marshall 2009

Sean Marshall has a good chance of winning the last spot in the Chicago Cubs rotation for 2009. He also has a good chance of being one of the better #5 starters in the major leagues this year, and a nice late round bargain in relatively deep fantasy leagues. Marshall's strikeout rate improved drastically last year, going from a K/9 of 5.8 the previous year to 8.1. That was in 65.1 innings, which is enough that a change of that magnitude has to be somewhat meaningful. His control remained about the same. His groundball rate got substantially worse, dropping from 48.2% to 41.2% His increased strikeout rate may have occurred as the result of a change in approach that was achieved at the expense of his groundball rate, or it may have simply been improvement in a young pitcher, with the lower groundball rate being a fluke. If it was the latter, then Marshall has the chance to be an excellent starting pitcher this year. If not, he's still worth owning in deep leagues.

Jeff Niemann 2009

The biggest negative about Jeff Niemann is that he isn't going to start the season in a major league starting rotation. With David Price filling the last spot in their rotation, Niemann will either have to spend time in the bullpen or the minor leagues. He's still an interesting enough pitcher, and close enough to a major league rotation spot if there's an injury or trade, that he's worth evaluating. Niemann's AAA numbers paint the picture of someone who should be moderately effective in the majors immediately. I would expect something like a K/9 of 7.0 and BB/9 of 4.5. Hopefully his control will improve over time. While Niemann is going to be 26 in a few days, the window of opportunity for pitchers to continue improving lasts a little longer than for hitters. While I don't have access to minor league groundball rates, Niemann's home run rates suggest that he doesn't induce a particularly high rate of groundballs. So why do I consider him an interesting pitcher to follow? In an article in The Hardball Times, Josh Kalk showed that using 'pitcher similarity scores' that measure the actual physical traits of a pitcher's pitches (velocity, movement, etc.) Niemann is in some pretty select company. His closest 'comps' include Soria, Kershaw, Cain, Chamberlain, and some guy named Lincecum. While there hasn't been any research yet on how valuable a predictive tool this kind of analysis is, it'll be interesting to see what it means in Niemann's case.

Anibal Sanchez 2009

Anibal Sanchez may be the perfect late round pick this year. A good current skillset combined with youth and high upside potential, all disguised by injury reduced totals and a horribly unlucky 5.57 ERA in 2008 make him a potential steal. Even though he's been around for a while, Sanchez is still only 25 years old. He missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, but came back to put up a K/9 of 8.0 (and BB/9 of 4.3) in almost 52 innings of work. His control is still a concern, but at 25 years old, there's reason to think it may improve over time, and his strikeout rate is good enough that he'll be fairly effective even if it doesn't. His injury history is also a concern of course, but late round picks all come with some baggage, and in Sanchez's case it seems well worth the risk.

Assorted Stuff

I won't have time to do any strategy or profile threads today. Just a few assorted odds and ends.

Just five more days in the February promotion at Draftbug. New accounts get funded with $4 worth of player points free until the end of the month.

I've mentioned before that I won Rotohog's 2008 Baseball contest. They launched the 2009 one yesterday, and the prizes were reduced...basically to nothing. The 2007 winner has already publicly said that he probably won't be playing, and while I haven't made a decision yet, I certainly won't be taking it very seriously this year.

Last, thanks to everyone who's been visiting The Waiver Wire. I appreciate all your feedback...even the anonymous commenter who asked "Are you an idiot?" a few days ago. If any of you have questions or topics that you'd like me to cover, just send an email or make a comment!

Jon Niese 2009

Jon Niese is in the running for the fifth spot in the Mets rotation for 2009. That isn't necessarily a good thing, for anyone other than Niese, his immediate family, and the Mets opponents. Don't get me wrong...Niese may eventually be a good major league pitcher. But he's just 22 years old, and there's nothing in his statistical record to indicate that he's ready to be more than a very mediocre major leaguer at this stage of his career. At each level of the minors he's had good, but not exceptional strikeout rates. And at each level fo the minors, his control has been good enough to be effective, but not good enough to be effective at the major league level. Obviously with any young pitcher, you should keep an eye on his rate statistics for any major changes in his ability, but I would definitely not draft Niese to start the season in any standard format.

Poker and Fantasy Baseball

I joined me first league of the season a few days ago. This is actually the first money league I've done with a fairly standard format in several years, as my focus has primarily been on Rotohog. It's a 5 * 5 daily transactions Yahoo league, that replaces batting average with on base percentage. I don't know the people in the league personally, and don't really know how good they are. What I do know is that all of them are very serious poker players...with several of them either supporting themselves through poker or hoping to get good enough to do so. That probably means that they're generally going to be pretty good at fantasy baseball too, although if I'm lucky they'll be playing eight or ten tables of poker instead of focusing on our draft! The draft is March 2nd, and I'll post an update here once I've got my team.

Jeff Samardzija 2009

Jeff Samardzija will go into the 2009 season as the Chicago Cubs number six starting pitcher, and will be part of their Triple A rotation. That's exactly where he belongs as he doesn't yet appear to be ready to be successful in the majors. His 25 strikeouts and 15 walks in a 27.2 inning major league trial last year is about the best the Cubs could have hoped for based on his minor league numbers, and his 2.28 ERA was a fluke that was largely to due his not allowing any home runs. In the minor leagues prior to last year, Samardzija not only had control problems but also had a very mediocre strikeout rate. He just turned 24, so there's plenty of time for him to improve, and he may yet become a star, but he's got a ways to go before he turns 'great stuff' into 'great performance'.

Chris Young 2009

When Chris Young (the pitcher) was traded from Texas to San Diego, I had high hopes for him. Although he has put up excellent ERAs each year since then (3.46, 3.12, and 3.96), I've generally been disappointed with his performance. His control has gotten worse each year, and reached a low point 4.3 walks per nine innings in 2008. And he's gone from an extreme flyball pitcher to something beyond that. Young is now probably the most extreme flyball pitcher in baseball, putting up a 21.7% groundball rate last year. Add to that the fact that Young may be the worst pitcher in baseball at preventing stolen bases, and there's a lot to be concerned about. I believe that a combination of a very favorable home park and a whole lot of good luck has helped Young out the past few years, and that there's a high risk that his home runs per fly ball will rise to a more normal level, causing Young to be revealed as a very mediocre pitcher despite his good strikeout rate. I would steer clear of him in 2009, other than possibly using him at home against weak lineups in daily transactions games like Snapdraft and Draftbug.

Draftbug Promotions

I just wanted to remind everyone that we're giving out $4 worth of credits free if you register for Draftbug in the next eight days. Registration takes about a minute, and is free. We're currently running one day fantasy basketball and hockey contests, but if you're only interested in baseball you're welcome to sign up to get your credits and save them until Opening Day.

In addition, I'm adding a new offer to sweeten the pot a little. If you sign up for Draftbug between now and March 31st and play in at least $20 worth of contests, I'll send you daily Draftbug expected scoring projections for all major league baseball players each day for the month of April. These projections will be based on the same data I use in Rotohog Baseball, which I won in 2008 against more than 40,000 other competitors.

Jered Weaver 2009

Two years ago, after putting up an earned run average of 2.56, Jered Weaver was considered by many to be a star pitcher and one of the better pitchers in the American League. However, after ERAs of 3.91 and 4.33 the past two years, his stock has fallen drastically, and he is now viewed by most as a very average pitcher. The remarkable thing is that he is almost the exact same pitcher he always was! After his extremely lucky 2006, Weaver was one of the most overrated players in baseball. Now he may be slightly underrated. Weaver is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball, having groundball rates between 30% and 36% all three seasons he's pitched in the majors. He makes up for that to some extent by having a decent strikeout rate (2008 K/9: 7.9) and pretty good control (2008 BB/9: 2.8). At 26 years old, he's still likely to improve a little. I would expect something a similar strikeout rate in 2009, with slightly better control.

Taylor Teagarden 2009

A lot of fantasy baseball players seem to be rooting for Taylor Teagarden to beat out the Rangers' two other young catchers for the starting job in 2009. I'm not. Although he arguably has the most power (Max Ramirez fans could reasonably disagree), he's the oldest of the three (25 years old) and has the least success in the high minor leagues. Most of his really impressive numbers were compiled at high A ball, as he struggled at both AA and AAA last season. I suspect that of the three catchers, Teagarden is the most likely to struggle badly enough to be sent down the the minors at some point. I suspect that what will actually happen is that he'll begin the season as the starting catcher at AAA...which is the correct destination for him.

Brian Roberts 2009

I'm not sure why, but Brian Roberts is one of my favorite players. While he doesn't get the hype of the top fantasy second basemen, he's become one of the top base stealers in the major leagues, and contributes in other categories as well. He's particularly valuable in most points leagues (including Rotohog, Snapdraft, and Draftbug), where many of his other contributions are rewards. Roberts is a doubles machine. He's had 50 twice, and has exceeded 40 doubles for four of the past five years. He hits lots of triples. He gets a ton of walks for a guy who isn't a slugger. Playing in a relatively neutral ballpark, Roberts is going to be a decent alternative in your daily lineup anytime the big three of Utley, Kinsler, and Pedroia aren't benefiting from their cozy home parks.

Jay Bruce 2009

Like Pablo Sandoval (who I discussed yesterday), Jay Bruce shows the kind of trend we're looking for in potential star hitters - improvement as he moved up through the minor leagues, playing in leagues where he was one of the youngest players, and developing power. Bruce is already capable of hitting 30 home runs in a full Major League season, and at 22 years old he's still in the steep part of the learning curve. While his walk rate is a little lower than I like in a slugger, there's plenty of time to improve. Also his ability to hit for high average in the minor leagues suggests that he's able to compensate for the lack of walks in other ways. The only other negative I can see is that the speed he showed in the lower minor leagues (as much as 19 SB) is likely something he's never going to come close to again. Bruce's home park is a huge bonus for anyone playing in leagues where you can turn over your whole team every day. For 2009 he's likely to be very average on the road (where he's going to be in tougher parks and also have a slight away game disadvantage), but be a star at home.

Kyle Kendrick 2009

Kyle Kendrick appears to be the leading candidate for the #5 spot in the Phillies starting rotation for 2009. That's definitely not something that Philadelphia fans should be thrilled about. In 2007, Kendrick was mediocre, striking out out only 3.8 batters per nine innings, but partially making up for the low strikeout rate with good control (BB/9: 2.0) and lots of groundballs (47.1%). Unfortunately, Kendrick took a step backwards in all areas in 2008, as he struck out only 3.6, walked 3.1, and had a groundball rate of 44.3%. Those numbers simply aren't good enough to be a major league starting pitcher, and Kendrick is going to need to show some improvement or Philadelphia management may catch on to the fact that he isn't very good. In the meantime, we can profit by targeting hitters who are facing him when his turn in the rotation comes around!

Pablo Sandoval 2009

Pablo Sandoval shows exactly the kind of progression you want to see in a young player. He's 22 years old, has been younger than most of his competition at every level he's played, and has shown a general improvement in stats. While he's always been able to hit for average, Sandoval has begun to hit home runs. That's going to be important to his future as a potential fantasy star, since his move from catcher to 1B/3B sets the bar a lot higher on what he needs to accomplish as a hitter. While Sandoval has a lower walk rate than you'd usually want to see in a top prospect, his ability to avoid strikeouts at all levels (including the majors) means that he should have a good chance of continuing to hit for a high average. Sandoval is a good prospect in any case, but if he somehow has 2009 catcher eligibility in your league, then he's almost certainly going to be a great target on draft day.

Yovani Gallardo 2009

If completely healthy, Yovani Gallardo is an excellent pitcher. While there is no reason to expect any problems with the knee on which he had surgery last year, anyone considering drafting him should watch closely to see whether he decides to pitch in the World Baseball Classic. While it's good news that he's recovered enough to consider it, I would definitely prefer to see him take things slowly before the season. He wasn't especially impressive in the short time after he returned at the end of last season, but that is less of a concern. Assuming he's back at full strength for the 2009 season, Gallardo is young enough (23) that it's reasonable to hope for even better than his 2007 statistics (K/9: 8.4, BB/9: 3.1, GB%: 38.2%). Gallardo seems to be all over the place in early drafts, so you'll need to wait to see how far he slips before deciding whether he's worth targeting.

Livan Hernandez 2009

I continue to be unimpressed by the moves the Mets are making with regard to their starting rotation for 2009. They've now signed Livan Hernandez to a one year deal, and he'll be given a chance to compete for the last spot in their starting rotation. Livan Hernandez used to be overrated. Now he's gotten so bad that everyone (except MLB general managers) realizes his shortcomings. In 2008 he struck out 67 and walked 43 in 180 innings. He actually wasn't quite as awful as the previous year, because at least his groundball rate increased (to 43.7% in the AL and 47.1% in the NL). Livan turns 34 years old next week, and it appears that his arm has been pretty much used up by managers who didn't understand the impact of overuse. If he makes the Mets rotation, Livan will be one of my favorite targets for opposing hitters in daily contests, especially when he's on the road.