Rich Hill

Last year in the majors, Rich Hill struck out 90 batters and walked 39 in 99.1 innings. In large part due to allowing 16 home runs, his ERA was a somewhat mediocre 4.17. In a recent mock draft at Rotojunkie he was selected with the 174th pick...probably about right if was to repeat that quality of performance, but over a full season.

However, I think that barring injury, a repeat performance is a worst case for Hill. For years he was a dominant, but wild minor league pitcher. Adjusted for the level of competition, his stats looked something like Daniel Cabrera (who I always use as an example of dominant, but wild, and ineffective). But in 2005, Hill figured things out and at three stops in the minor leagues he struck out a combined 194, while walking only 35 in 131.2 innings. He struggled in a short stay in the majors late in the year, and began 2006 at AAA. He was even better than the previous year, as he struck out 135 and walked only 21 in exactly 100 innings. He only allowed 3 home runs at AAA.

Hill's performance the past two years in the minor leagues leads me to believe that his ceiling is quite a bit higher than his major leaue performance to date would indicate. I think he's got the potential to be a top starting pitcher. The only thing limiting him is that he's been an extreme fly ball pitcher so far in the majors, which means that his 16 home runs allowed in Chicago is probably a better indicator of his future than the 3 home runs allowed at AAA. Regardless I think he deserves to be picked a lot higher than #174, especially in 5X5 drafts.

New Blog - The Rotohog Blog

As you may have noticed I'm quite excited about a new fantasy baseball game called Rotohog. I've got a lot of ideas about the best strategy for it, and to spare those of you who won't be playing it, I've decided to create a new blog: The Rotohog Blog. The Waiver Wire will be dedicated primarily to traditional fantasy baseball leagues, with only an occaisonal mention of Rotohog.

More About Rotohog

If you haven't already read my earlier post about Rotohog, here is the link. I'm really excited about playing this game, and wanted to talk about how strategy for it will differ from normal leagues. I've only just begun planning out my strategy, but some obvious differences are:

1. Hitters with good plate control (high BB, low K) are worth more.
2. Strikeout pitchers will be worth even more than usual, because hits allowed are penalized more than walks allowed.
3. Pitchers on bad teams will be penalized even more than usual.
4. It looks like pitchers who eat innings will be worth more...although the impact of this will be limited by the innings pitched limit of 1300.

Anyway, I highly recommend signing up for this
free game with a $100,000 grand prize and trading structure based on the stock market. Also the 37 minute 'free for all' drafts should be pretty intense. If you do sign up please put 'waiverwire' as your referal code to help this blog...and help Save The Children, which will get 1/4 of whatever I earn from referals. After you sign up, join The Waiver Wire league for a little friendly competition.

Increased Playing Time

This post is a reprint of a post that Ed Reaven (revo) made at Rotojunkie recently about players whose stats are likely to improve this year due to increased playing time. I thought the information was so useful that I asked Ed's permission to reprint it here...


It's pretty tough to determine a breakout based on improved skills, age, etc., but it's a bit easier to peg someone for a bustout based on increased playing time (or in the case of pitchers, change in roles).

While it's far from an exact science -- you can't just extrapolate numbers based on limited playing time the previous year -- it's likely a few breakout players will come from the list below. If you took Ryan Howard last year, he was a perfect example of the "increased playing time" breakout from '05 to '06(and then some!)

I compiled a list of these players I think fit the same description. I'm making no projections, and many of these are "well, duh" no brainers. But it's a handy list, I think.

Feel free to add any I forgot about, and I'll add them in.

Almost-guaranteed increased PT candidates:
PLAYERS WITH INCREASED 2007 ROLES

WES HELMS -- should double his '06 ABs (where he hit .330 in 249 ABs with good power and run production)
SHANE VICTORINO -- has RF to himself
CHRIS BURKE -- now the full-time CFer
CHRIS DUNCAN -- the Cards want him to be the full time LFer
ADAM WAINWRIGHT-- moves into the rotation after overpowering post-season
COREY HART -- takes over RF from Jenkins
JOSH BARD -- becomes the everyday catcher (well, 450 ABs worth)
RYAN CHURCH -- should fend off Snelling and is prime to have a breakout year
CHRIS DUFFY -- had 26 SBs in only 314 ABs
REED JOHNSON -- no more platoon, and had 86 Runs in 460 ABs, a huge ratio of runs/AB...if he gets 580 ABs, he may end up with 110 Runs
WILSON BETEMIT -- has a good chance to hit 25 HRs as the full-time 3B
DAVID DELLUCCI -- had only 264 ABs last year (with 13 HRs), has only the puny Jason Michaels to fend off....if he could get to 450 ABs, expect 20+ HRs
ANDY MARTE -- everyday 3B thanks to his defense, his bat should finally be able to come around
NELSON CRUZ -- only the decrepit Sammy Sosa stands in his way of getting 500 ABs
FRANK CATALANOTTO -- leaves the Toronto platoon for Texas, where he seems guaranteed to finally top 550 PAs (and is rumored to bat leadoff)
BRADEN LOOPER -- only if he lands STL's #5 rotation spot
DAVID ROSS -- amazingly had only 247 ABs last year (and hit 21 HRs). If he gets 475 ABs, he can be a Top 5 catcher.
KAZ MATSUI -- Jamey Carroll will steal some ABs, but if Matsui hits as well as he did in his brief COL stint last year, he should easily get 500 PAs (and double digit HRs and SBs)
OCTAVIO DOTEL -- obvious one, moves into the closer role
SALOMON TORRES -- another obvious one
JASON KUBEL -- former top prospect now the everyday LF/DH
LUKE SCOTT -- as per Nascarfan, Scott is likely to get 400-450 ABs. 20+ HRs, 75+ RBIs?
KELLY JOHNSON -- Positives: Braves dumped Marcus Giles for him; Had nice production when last healthy in '05 (9 HRs, 40 RBIs in 290 ABs); the Braves think he can hit 20 HRs; Negatives: injury prone; never played 2nd.
MATT DIAZ -- according to the Braves website, he's the favorite to win the LF job and is "awesome right now" (Bobby Cox's words). With 525 ABs (which means relegating Langerhans to the dustbin), Diaz could produce solid numbers for a last round selection in your fantasy draft (but I'm sure that .327 comes down a notch).

Next tier:
JOEL PINEIRO -- only if he becomes closer (but he'll still suck)
NOOK LOGAN -- they love him apparently. Another sleeper SB candidate if he wins the job
TERRMEL SLEDGE -- will likely split time with Jose Cruz Jr., and this is his last shot. Worth a late round flier.
ALFREDO AMEZAGA -- Marlins CF picture is ugly, but Amezaga had 20 SBs in only 334 ABs in '06. If he wins the job and plays well early, he could get 500 ABs and 30 SBs.


The no-brainers follow, but it's just for reference. Basically, these are the guys who will go from 80-100 IP to 180-200 IP, and 150-250 ABs to 550 ABs. Like Ryan Howard, they may have done well in '06 in their limited PT, but given the larger PT, their stats could explode:
PLAYERS IN THEIR 1ST FULL SEASON
HOWIE KENDRICK
CARLOS QUENTIN
RICH HILL
CHAD BILLINGSLEY
JEREMY SOWERS
ANIBAL SANCHEZ
JOHN MAINE
ADAM LOEWEN
RYAN SHEALY
JASON BARTLETT
BOOF BONSER
MATT GARZA
JERED WEAVER
TOM GORZELANNY


Rookies who will likely start the year in the majors in prominent roles:
2007 ROOKIES
KEVIN KOUZMANOFF
SCOTT THORMAN
RYAN BRAUN
DELMON YOUNG
AKINORI IWAMURA
CHRIS YOUNG
DUSTIN PEDROIA
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA
TROY TULOWITZKI
CHRIS IANNETTA
ALEX GORDON
KEI IGAWA
SHIN-SOO CHOO
TIM LINCECUM


Players who are healthy after missing a large percentage of the '06 season. Many of these players have broken out before or have had very successful careers (a la Sheff, Matsui, Lee & Gagne), but they should be able to post numbers similar to their pre-injury totals, so don't forget about them:
RETURNING FROM INJURY
ADAM EATON
MARK TEAHEN
JJ HARDY
MIKE HAMPTON
CRISTIAN GUZMAN
DERREK LEE
JONNY GOMES
JOSE GUILLEN
JEREMY HERMIDA
JAY GIBBONS
RANDY WOLF
IAN KINSLER
ERIC GAGNE
COCO CRISP
GARY SHEFFIELD
RONDELL WHITE
HIDEKI MATSUI
CARL PAVANO (yeah right!)
ZACH GREINKE

Thanks again to Ed for letting me share this valuable information!

Baseball in China

Since I began this blog, according to the data I get from Google, I've had a few visitors from China, including someone from Suzhou who appears to visit the blog every day. The past two days, I've had significantly more Chinese visitors...people from 5 or 6 cities in China have visited. I'm really interested in learning where this traffic is coming from...is baseball that popular in China? Is this just some weird internet thing where Google is incorrectly determining where people are from? If you read this blog and you're in China, please post in the comments or send me an email (zelvin30@hotmail.com) to let me know about yourself, how you found out about the blog, and about baseball's status in China!

Hong-chih Kuo

One of the more interesting (and harder to evaluate) pitchers going into the 2007 baseball season is Hong-chih Kuo. His minor league record suggested that he'd be a dominant (9+ K/9) reliever in the majors, but would struggle with his control. Typically a pitcher like that is going to be only marginally effective as a starter, where they won't strike out as many batters, but will still struggle with control. If you look at his overall statistics for the 2006 season (his first full season in the majors) they look very much the way you'd expect his stats as a reliever to look: 59.2 innings pitched, 71 strikeouts, 33 walks.

But things get interesting when you look at his splits between starting and relieving. In 5 September starts, he struck out 35 and walked only 7 batters, in 29.1 innings. That's an amazing performance. It also means that as a reliever last year he struck out 36 and walked 26 in 30.1 innings. That's not so amazing. In fact, that's remarkably similar to Daniel Cabrera numbers, except that Kuo did it against the easier competition in the NL. Kuo has also been quoted as saying that he's more comfortable as a starter than as a reliever. So should we assume that he's a great sleeper pick if he's in the LA rotation, but that he will fail in a relief role? I don't think so. Only two of his relief appearances were after he returned in September and he struck out 7 batters and walked 2, in 3 innings pitched. So I think he would have excelled in either role late in the year. Its VERY unusual for a pitcher to put up numbers that are so much better as a starter than as a reliever, so I have to assume that something was wrong earlier in the year...either he had a minor injury or there was a problem with his pitching mechanics that got worked out. I'm confident he can excel in either role, and that his rate stats (K/9 and K/BB) will be better as a reliever than as a starter. That said, I think until he does it again, his incredible September performance has to be viewed more as a display of his full potential than as an indication of his current skill level. Expect numbers similar to his overall stats last year, but there's potential for a lot better. He's a great late round pick in relatively shallow leagues if he still appears to have a shot at the starting rotation when your draft takes place.

Rotohog - This looks awesome

If you haven't already done so, you've got to check out Rotohog. This is a new FREE fantasy baseball game with a $100,000 grand prize. As great as that sounds, what's most exciting to me about it is that once the season starts, players will trade on an open market, almost like a stock exchange. I'll get to combine two of my greatest interests in one game, for free, for a huge prize! I've literally been obsessed thinking about my strategies since I signed up last night.

This really looks like its going to be fun, so I'd suggest taking a look. The folks at Rotohog have set up a referal incentive program for bloggers with some pretty large potential incentives at stake, so if you sign up please enter 'waiverwire' (without the quotes) into the referal code field at the bottom of the registration form. Remember that 1/4 of whatever I get for the referals (which could potentially be as much as $1,000) will go to 'Save The Children'.

Here's the link to Rotohog ...don't forget to enter waiverwire as the referal code!

I've also create a league within Rotohog called 'The Waiver Wire' which I'd encourage you to join. This doesn't really affect anything in the game (including the draft) but is a way for all of us to keep track of each other's progress and foster a little friendly competition.

I'll probably be talking about this unique game a lot more over the coming months.

Prior & Lidge: Negative Hype Is Your Friend

Everyone knows that sometimes the hype about a player can overtake his actual abilities, and many people know to steer clear of that latest overhyped rookie or prospect. But less people seem to be able to avoid falling for the negative hype associated with certain players, so these players can fall much further in fantasy baseball drafts than their performance of health risk warrants. Two great examples of that this year are Mark Prior and Brad Lidge.

When healthy, pretty much everyone agrees that Mark Prior is one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball, and has the potential to be one of the two best. But because of a series of injuries over the years, he hasn't done much pitching, and last year his performance in the majors was poor. Because of this, he's been falling VERY far in mock drafts that have been conducted so far. Rather than weight the pros and cons of picking him and making an objective decision, people are acting like there's no chance at all that he'll be healthy and effective. In one recent mock draft at Rotojunkie, he was picked with the 237th pick. That means he would have gone undrafted in a standard CBS Sportsline draft! That's insane! Among starting pitchers, he was picked right after John Maine and right before Tom Glavine. I'm a big Mets fan, but that just makes no sense. Prior is reported to be healthy and throwing hard in Spring Training. If there's even a 30-40% chance that I'll get more than half a season of the 'real' Mark Prior, he's worth more than those guys. I'm not saying you should go out there and draft him in the 5th round, but I certainly think he should be picked by around the 150th pick in most drafts.

Another player where negative hype has overtaken reality is Brad Lidge. People are asking what is wrong with him, and comparisions have been made to the loss of control that Mark Wohlers went through. What's overlooked is that Lidge had 104 strikeouts and only 35 walks in 75 innings last year. That's a dominant performance...almost as good as his previous two years. The only thing wrong with him was that he allowed more home runs than the previous two years and had worse luck on balls in play (over which the pitcher has very little control), leading to an ERA that was far worse than his actual performance. His ground ball rate was about the same as in 2005 (and better than 2004), so there's no reason to think the home runs were anything other than a fluke. I predict Lidge will go back to being a top tier closer this year, and there won't be any more talk about slider flattening out. Lidge fell to pick #132 in the same Rotojunkie mock draft mentioned above...I think he should be picked in the top 100 picks, and if I believe in using high picks on closers, I'd certainly go for him in the top 70 or so.

Another Useful Resource

Another useful resource is The Closer Watch Blog which keeps you up to date on the latest news about who is closing for which teams, and who would be next in line if they're injured or falter.

Philip Hughes

As a Mets fan, I hate to say this, but Philip Hughes is the real deal. I'm profiling him now to show the contract between a prospect who has the potential to be very good (Homer Bailey, who I profiled last post) and prospect who already IS very good. I think people tend to underestimate how good an indicator a low BB/9 rate in the minors is for pitchers with high K/9 ratios. Hughes is 20 years old, and hasn't had major health problems that I'm aware of. Here are his stats:

YEAR Team Level IP BB K
2005 Charlston+Tampa A/A+ 86.1 20 93
2006 Tampa A+ 30 2 30
2006 Trenton AA 116 32 138

That looks like he'll dominate at AAA this year, and I expect him to prove himself as a very effective major league pitcher starting sometime before the All-Star break. If you're in a league with a deep bench, definitely target him if you can get him in the late rounds. And if you're in a keeper league, he's definitely someone you want.

Also, a couple reminders:
1. I'm very interested in hearing feedback from people reading the blog...especially regular readers. Who are you, where are you from, what do you like about the blog, what don't you like, what question do you have, etc.?

2. If you buy anything from the vendors advertising on the blog after clicking on their links, I will be giving 1/4 of the money I get to Save The Children. This is true regardless of whether the item you buy is the one advertised. So if you're planning to do any shopping on Amazon or EBay (or especially if you're going to register for a new EBay account) please do it through the links on The Waiver Wire. And if you're going to buy baseball tickets, consider looking at what's available through the StubHub link on the right side of the blog and at the very bottom of the main blog page. Also, let me know what other online vendors you make purchases from and I'll see if I can sign up as an affiliate with them. It varies from one advertiser to another, but in general you can assume that I'll get anywhere from 1%-9% of your purchase value, and I'll give 1/4 of that to Save The Children. Not a lot maybe, but if you're going to buy something anyway, why not help a good cause?

Homer Bailey

Homer Bailey is one of the more hyped pitching prospects going into this year. I'm not sure it's justified. He's obviously got the potential to be dominant with a K/9 over 9 at every level he's pitched, but his control has been just ok...and that usually converts to being pretty wild in the majors. One thing he's got going for him is his age (20), but that's much more of mixed blessing for pitchers than hitters. First of all, young arms tend to be injured more easily, and skills develop in less of a straight line in young pitchers than hitters. Here are his numbers from The Baseball Cube:

YEAR TEAM LEVEL IP BB K
2005 Dayton A 103.2 62 125
2006 Sarasota A+ 70.2 22 79
2006 Chattga AA 68 28 77

I think these numbers equate to an effective major leaguer, but not an immediate star by any means. Next post I'll show you what the minor league numbers of a REAL star prospect look like.

I won't be posting much (if at all) this week, but should be back to normal next week. In the meantime, I'd love to hear from some of my regular visitors - who are you, what kinds of fantasy baseball league do you play in, what do you like about the blog, what don't you like, what affiliate ads would you use for shopping to help Save the Children...? I'm especially interested to learn about some of you who I've noticed visiting every day including those in Edmonton, Adelaide, Suzhou(!), and Granville. Who are you? Feel free to post in comments or use the email link on the right side of the blog.

Juan Cruz

I was inspired to write about him when I saw a reference to Juan Cruz as a 'young starter'. This struck me as odd, since it seems like he's been around forever. I was shocked to find that he's still only 26 years old. Anyway, courtesy of The Baseball Cube, here are his stats for the past three years (not including 3 innings at Tucson last year).

He's got the strikeout rate to pitch very effectively, but his control is consistently pretty shaky. I usually think this type of pitcher is better suited to being a reliever, and he's been so much more effective against righties each of the past three years, that it really looks like they should stop messing around with him as a part time starter, and just use him in relief, particularly when a few righties in a row will be batting.

Year	Team	League	IP	BB	K
2004	Atlanta	MLB	72	30	70
2005	Sacremento	PCL	75	28	90
2005	Oakland	MLB	32.2	22	34
2006	Arizona	MLB	94.2	47	88

Takashi Saito

Obviously, Takashi Saito was awesome last year (IP: 78.1, K:107, BB:23), and should now be considered a top tier closer.

If you look at his Japanese League Stats at The Baseball Cube, you'll notice a few things that are interesting. First of all, his K/9 was never anywhere near as high as it was last year. Just goes to show you how much easier it is for a reliever to be dominant than a starter. I'm curious exactly why that is. The most obvious explanation would be that starters are holding back a little to conserve energy...but you never hear them say, "yeah I was going about 90% on that pitch". Another explanation is that they either get tired or lose effectiveness the second time through the order...but then they should have better stats in the first inning, and I don't think that's the case at all.

The second interesting thing in his stats is if you look at the Games and Games Started. For every single year of his career (which is quite long) Saito pitched in games as a starter and as a reliever. If that's normal in Japan, I didn't realize it.

By the way, I wrote an article for Lenny Melnick Fantasy Baseball on strategy for your last picks in the draft. Take a look, let me know what you think, and let Lenny know if you think the article is hard to find or that my blog would be hard to find from his site.

Jose Valverde

So I just read a discussion thread over on Rotojunkie about who will take over as Arizona's closer when Valverde falters. What?!?!? Why do we think Valverde is going to falter? He had 69 strikeouts in 49 innings last year. He's had a dominant strikeout rate every year in the majors. Sure, he's a little wild, but not enough to cancel out the extremely low number of hits he's generally going to allow. He hasn't even had a really bad home run rate. So we're basically assuming that his luck when it comes to hits allowed on balls in play will continue to be bad, despite the fact that every study that looks at that finds that it mostly really is just luck and players' success or failure in that area doesn't tend to repeat from one year to the next. If Jose Valverde falls anywhere near the later rounds of your draft (let's say after round 12 of a CBS Sportsline standard league) draft him. Don't hesitate to draft him a little higher than that if you need a closer.

Cole Hamels

Hamels obviously isn't going to qualify as one of my daily picks (50% and under ownership in Yahoo leagues is the criteria) but I'll talk about him anyway. His season last year was simply awesome for a 22 year old rookie. IP: 132.1, K:145, BB:48. That's like a healthy Mark Prior. His minor league numbers are great too. If you want to see them, take a look at The Baseball Cube. The only real risk is that like Prior, Hamels has an extensive injury history. That said, he's SO good that its worth it. I think his 4.08 ERA last year is going to scare enough people off that he should be a bargain in most leagues. And his future is so bright if he stays healthy that I'm pretty tempted to invest in some of his baseball cards.

Octavio Dotel

Dotel should theoretically be fully recovered from surgery and may get first shot at KC's closer job. If he's fully healthy, he'll be a very valuable closer. Ignore the people who say he pitches better as a set up man. I actually think he's going to be an exceelent high risk/high reward late round pick because of the great upside, and the fact that you'll know whether the pick worked out very quickly. Watch his K/9 and K/BB in Spring Training. If they look more like 2004 (IP: 50.2, K:72, BB:18) he's at least a middle-tier closer. If they look more like 2005 (IP:15.1, K:16, BB:11) be somewhat concerned and only pick him with a late round pick. If they look more like 2006 (IP: 10, K:7, BB:11) don't pick him under any circumstances.

Odds & Ends

Another new blog to tell you about: Fantasy Baseball Island. All these good, new blogs (including mine) make me wonder whether there were a bunch of guys just like us last year who started blogs that fizzled out for one reason or another.

On another note, this Live Hive Fantasy look like it could be really cool, and sounds like an idea I had about a year ago.

Q&A with the Fantasy Baseball Guy

I recently exchanged questions and answers with The Fantasy Baseball Guy, Paul Greco. Here's what he had to say:


1. What is your greatest accomplishment in fantasy baseball?
After playing Fantasy Baseball for over 15 years (BTW I'm 32, but when you say 15 years, it makes you sound old), you have good and bad moments. My greatest accomplishment though has to be when I won the Gotham Baseball Fantasy Championship last year. I was playing against guys in the business, but to play against my cousin, Mark Healey, who is the executive editor of Gotham Baseball Magazine, was the best.

Mark and I hadn't seen each other in over 15 years because of location and me being the military for 10 years, but baseball and family brought us back together in January 2006. When he asked me to join the Gotham League I jump at the chance. To win it all, felt pretty good, but to beat my cousin, felt great!!!


2. What makes your fantasy baseball web site different from others?
There are a lot of great Fantasy Baseball sites out there, including yours Alex. When I sat down to figure out what I wanted to do with www.fantasybaseballguy.com, how I wanted the site laid out, I just wanted people to know what I was doing with my team(s) day in and day out as a Fantasy owner. That's why I have a journal on the site. I try to post each day to show other Fantasy owners what I'm up to. I also wanted to Showcase other sites and tools that are out there that might make things easier for Fantasy Owners. That being said, people have asked me why I would do something like that, showcase someone else’s site. To me, it’s all about getting the information to the Fantasy Owners, and if it means pointing out a site that gives you more information then mine, that’s fine, cause in the end, I know I helped you find that site.

Another reason why I put up www.fantasybaseballguy.com is because other big Fantasy sites give you the same things; news, stats, and articles. The one thing I found though, is as the season goes on, do we, the Fantasy Geeks who are the reading the articles, really know if those guys are following their own advice? You really don't! I want to showcase my teams, and keep people up to date with how I’m doing, what moves I’ve made and why, and what other Owners in my leagues are doing. True advice has to followed, and I want to show people that everything I say on www.fantasybaseballguy.com I do myself.


3. Who is a sleeper that you think will surprise people this year?
All true Fantasy Owners know that statistics are great, and big time Fantasy advice is awesome, but the gut tells you where to go. This year, my gut is telling me that the tandem of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood will finally show their promise. Kerry Wood reportedly has lost 30 pounds and is 100%, and could be the closer for the Cubs before seasons end.

Mark Prior on the other hand is a little more iffy. He’s been strengthen his right shoulder over the winter, and will compete for the Cubs fifth spot in the rotation. I really think that if he wins the job, we could see a 12 win season out of him. Other players I’d look at coming back or breaking out; Rickie Weeks, Jason Varitek, Mike Sweeney (if healthy), Dustin Pedroria, Shane Victorino, and Matt Cain.

Zito and Lilly and more

One group of pitchers I always focus especially closely on is those switching from the AL to the NL. Not only do they benefit from not having to face the DH, but the past few years the overall talent level has been substantially higher in the NL. Two of those pitchers this year are Barry Zito and Ted Lilly, and they're VERY similar in a lot of way. Both have average around 2:1 K/BB with decent K/9 rates. Both are fly ball pitchers who will generally allow plenty of home runs. Both are at an age where they probably shouldn't be expected to get either much better or much worse from year to year. The only differences are that Lilly will strike out more batters, while Zito has slightly better control (except in 2006) and a slightly higher ground ball %. Also, I would expect Zito to go much higher in most drafts. Both of these guys should be quite effective with the move to the NL, and I consider Lilly an excellent sleeper based on the likelihood that he won't be picked early.

Also wanted to clarify something from the John Patterson, Part II post - I'm not saying those are good assumptions. I'm saying that even if they were true, picking Clemens over Patterson probably wouldn't be a good move. Add in the fact, that Patterson might not get hurt, Clemens might get hurt, Clemens is 44 and might not pitch as well, and I think Patterson is an easy choice over Clemens.

Someone asked what I think about John Maine. I actually think his K/9 and K/BB are almost exactly what we should expect based on his minor league stats. It looks like he got a little lucky though and I'd expect his ERA and WHIP to increase...maybe to 4.00 and 1.30. I suspect he may be onoe of the pitchers who meets my 'eligibility requirements' for my daily picks once the season starts, and I won't hesitate to use him in favorable situations.